2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 15983
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1621 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:29 am

The US now has three cat 4 landfalls in 25 days. The 4300+ day major drought seems like forever ago.
1 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5130
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1622 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:48 am

RL3AO wrote:The US now has three cat 4 landfalls in 25 days. The 4300+ day major drought seems like forever ago.

So if Maria was the only major to hit land this season it would count as a U.S. strike because it hit U.S. territory?
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 15983
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1623 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:53 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
RL3AO wrote:The US now has three cat 4 landfalls in 25 days. The 4300+ day major drought seems like forever ago.

So if Maria was the only major to hit land this season it would count as a U.S. strike because it hit U.S. territory?


I'd say yes but it's not like it was an official statistic or anything.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6721
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1624 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:11 pm

RL3AO wrote:The US now has three cat 4 landfalls in 25 days. The 4300+ day major drought seems like forever ago.


plus a cat 5 strike on the Virgin Islands from Irma
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3463
Age: 34
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1625 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:51 pm

Image

Image

It's looking a bit 1996 out there today.
2 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13540
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1626 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:10 am



https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/910867738893193216


Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits
Clearly, this doesn't matter anymore.
10:06 AM - Sep 21, 2017

Image
2 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5130
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1627 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:19 am

1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6795
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6
Contact:

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1628 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:59 am

Will need to monitor the Western Caribbean/Central America/Gulf of Tehuantepec Region very carefully as we end September and begin October. The guidance is trending stronger suggesting increased odds of a robust monsoonal gyre/trough developing with strong Cyclonic Vorticity at the 850mb level.
2 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
KHOU Regional Weather Forum
http://forums.khou.com/index.php

Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 26962
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1629 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:11 pm

Alyono wrote:
RL3AO wrote:The US now has three cat 4 landfalls in 25 days. The 4300+ day major drought seems like forever ago.


plus a cat 5 strike on the Virgin Islands from Irma


Yes, it would probably go down as VI4 or VI5 had statistics been kept for category impacts on US territories. It appears St. Thomas saw at least a category 4 impact from Irma.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 26962
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1630 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:43 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:In fact comparing this seasons TCHP to last year at this time and 2005 just before Wilma went into the Western Caribbean this years TCHP is the highest. 2005's TCHP looks quite pathetic on October 16th due to all the storms that continuously tracked through that area throughout the season.


Yeah. The Western Caribbean has pretty much been untapped this season. Everything developed too far east to track into W. Caribbean with the exception of ex-Harvey.

That's my big worry with those profiles, a monster hurricane in October in the western Caribbean


Is the western Caribbean capable of a Haiyan or Patricia like storm?
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13540
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1631 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:44 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
Yeah. The Western Caribbean has pretty much been untapped this season. Everything developed too far east to track into W. Caribbean with the exception of ex-Harvey.

That's my big worry with those profiles, a monster hurricane in October in the western Caribbean


Is the western Caribbean capable of a Haiyan or Patricia like storm?


Wasn't Wilma close enough?
3 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

AxaltaRacing24
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 843
Age: 18
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1632 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:46 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
Yeah. The Western Caribbean has pretty much been untapped this season. Everything developed too far east to track into W. Caribbean with the exception of ex-Harvey.

That's my big worry with those profiles, a monster hurricane in October in the western Caribbean


Is the western Caribbean capable of a Haiyan or Patricia like storm?

If it's not quite capable of that then it's VERY close. I'd say that 200mph down there with 880's could be produced there with it's max TCHP, low shear, hot waters, etc.
1 likes   

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1361
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Location: Orlando

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1633 Postby otowntiger » Sat Sep 23, 2017 5:38 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:That's my big worry with those profiles, a monster hurricane in October in the western Caribbean


Is the western Caribbean capable of a Haiyan or Patricia like storm?

If it's not quite capable of that then it's VERY close. I'd say that 200mph down there with 880's could be produced there with it's max TCHP, low shear, hot waters, etc.

We've seen it or certainly in that range , i.e. Mitch, Wilma, Gilbert, Allen, etc.
0 likes   

User avatar
Shell Mound
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 199
Age: 25
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: Kenneth City, FL ↔︎ Rölanda, Västra Götaland County, Sweden

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1634 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:02 pm

The lack of inhibitors this season, other than stable air (a semi-permanent post-2005 legacy), indicates that post-seasonal ACE will likely be in the top five on record since 1851. Currently, the seasonal ACE index is ~186, eighth highest on record for the basin, and rising quickly. There will probably be a few additional major hurricanes before the season finally shuts down. Given developing La Niña conditions, the season will likely continue into November or December. The chances for some off-season development are thus higher than average. According to official statistics, gleaned from here and here, the top ten seasonal ACE indices on record for the Atlantic basin are as follows:

    *1933 – 259
    *2005 – 243
    *1926 – 230
    *1995 – 227
    *2004 – 224
    *1950 – 211
    *1961 – 205
    *2017 – 186
    *1998 – 182
    *1999 – 177

A good estimate for the final ACE this season probably lies in the range of ~220 to 230. That would easily put 2017 within the top five. Seasonal totals will probably reach somewhere in the ballpark of 19 NS, 11 H, and 7 MH. Gert may well be upgraded to 100 kt in post-seasonal analysis, and add two additional majors from October/November. The total number of major hurricanes thus reaches seven under these conditions. ... Also, many of the most active seasons have occurred in clusters: 1932–3, 1950–1, 1995–6, 1998–9, 2004–5, et al. That pattern could portend a well-above-average 2018 as well, though obviously seasonal factors must contend.
1 likes   
TAMPA BAY: Home of the Tocobaga! ~Tracking weather since 1992~ Not a meteorologist. Only rely on official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the National Weather Service (NWS). | March '93 Superstorm | Gordon '94, Irene '99, Frances & Jeanne '04, Katrina & Wilma '05, Irma '17 | ET, TS, H

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6721
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1635 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:18 pm

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

This looks like a strong la niña is forming

Let's hand it to the models that insisted upon a strong el niño earlier this year. Looks like they had a sign error
1 likes   

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4368
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1636 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:30 pm

Alyono wrote:http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

This looks like a strong la niña is forming

Let's hand it to the models that insisted upon a strong el niño earlier this year. Looks like they had a sign error


Remember when there were some people who brushed off the POAMA enso model when it showed the SST anonalies dipping into negative territory a few months ago? Yeah...well it ended up doing a good job. The timing was off as it showed negative anomalies by June/July...but it saw what most refused to or were not able to see.....a developing La Nina.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 15983
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1637 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:54 pm

Alyono wrote:http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

This looks like a strong la niña is forming

Let's hand it to the models that insisted upon a strong el niño earlier this year. Looks like they had a sign error


We still have a long way to go when it comes to predicting ENSO.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8564
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1638 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 25, 2017 2:21 pm

Alyono wrote:http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

This looks like a strong la niña is forming

Let's hand it to the models that insisted upon a strong el niño earlier this year. Looks like they had a sign error


I think a moderate La Nina is possible for winter-early fall. Still has ways to go @ Nino 3.4.

Models are always warm biased early in the year and then slowly start correcting.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8564
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1639 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 25, 2017 2:23 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Alyono wrote:http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

This looks like a strong la niña is forming

Let's hand it to the models that insisted upon a strong el niño earlier this year. Looks like they had a sign error


Remember when there were some people who brushed off the POAMA enso model when it showed the SST anonalies dipping into negative territory a few months ago? Yeah...well it ended up doing a good job. The timing was off as it showed negative anomalies by June/July...but it saw what most refused to or were not able to see.....a developing La Nina.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk


It was strange how the models shifted at the last minute to (correctly) show a La Nina.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8564
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1640 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:53 pm

About a month ago, I posted in the ENSO thread after Harvey made landfall over Texas that the ENSO state was shaping up similar to 2005.



https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/910875085946355712
1 likes   
Image


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Brent, Dougiefresh, HurricaneMaster_PR, MississippiWx, Siker, TheAustinMan, Torgo, TropicalAnalystwx13 and 22 guests