The Caribbean now has the warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin, this is the area to watch over the next couple of weeks, IMO.
It will really surprise me if we do not see a major hurricane develop in this area during the month of October.
TCHP is through the roof in the central and western Caribbean.
This very warm W. Caribbean along with ENSO related climo says that FL must stay on extra alert for any H that might hit them in Oct due to this: there have been 10 major H hits on FL in Oct since 1865 (about one every 15 years on average) and those 10 seasons had these Nino 3.4 anomalies (credit to Eric Webb for pre-1950 data):
SON trimonthly average : -0.03, -0.3, -0.32, -0.39, -0.40, -0.50, -0.66, -0.80, -1.00. and -1.10
So, not one +SON and no real strongly -SON. These SON's pretty much surround where we are projected to go for the SON average per the Sept dynamic model forecast plume average, which is -0.50. Most of the better models like Euro, UKMET, JMA, CFSv2, Australian, Korean, etc., are within the -0.30 to -0.90 range: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... -sst_table
Edit: The 10 seasons with major H hits on FL in Oct since 1865, ALL of which originated in the W Caribbean:
1873, 1894, 1906, 1909, 1921, 1926, 1950, 1964, 1995, and 2005