2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1641 Postby NotSparta » Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:45 pm

Kingarabian wrote:About a month ago, I posted in the ENSO thread after Harvey made landfall over Texas that the ENSO state was shaping up similar to 2005.



https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/910875085946355712


And we know how October was that year :(

We need shear, lots of it
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1642 Postby blp » Mon Sep 25, 2017 11:03 pm

Very interesting theory proposed for why the Atlantic has been so favorable.



https://twitter.com/splillo/status/912451170815356928
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1643 Postby ApproximateKnowledge » Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:42 pm

I remember very cold upper troposphere/lower stratosphere temperatures being mentioned in 2005, too.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1644 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:56 pm

ApproximateKnowledge wrote:I remember very cold upper troposphere/lower stratosphere temperatures being mentioned in 2005, too.

Wouldn't that mean instability is above average? The instability graphs show a different story.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1645 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 27, 2017 3:01 pm

2017 redo - It appears the pieces are in place for this to be a much above normal season. There will likely be multiple major hits on the United States. And there will be some record breaking storms along the way - probably in August and September. We're probably going to be to the "M" storm by the end of September, and we are likely to end up with P or R when it's all said and done. Look out in the Bahamas, the northern Leewards, Florida and Texas. Mexico is liable to feel some sting as well. Puerto Rico? This season has your name on it too.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1646 Postby NotSparta » Wed Sep 27, 2017 3:57 pm

Steve wrote:2017 redo - It appears the pieces are in place for this to be a much above normal season. There will likely be multiple major hits on the United States. And there will be some record breaking storms along the way - probably in August and September. We're probably going to be to the "M" storm by the end of September, and we are likely to end up with P or R when it's all said and done. Look out in the Bahamas, the northern Leewards, Florida and Texas. Mexico is liable to feel some sting as well. Puerto Rico? This season has your name on it too.


Do you mean next season?
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1647 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 27, 2017 4:33 pm

No. It's a revised prediction for 2017
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1648 Postby NotSparta » Wed Sep 27, 2017 4:39 pm

Steve wrote:No. It's a revised prediction for 2017


Ah, I see. Just a misunderstanding
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1649 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:10 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
ApproximateKnowledge wrote:I remember very cold upper troposphere/lower stratosphere temperatures being mentioned in 2005, too.

Wouldn't that mean instability is above average? The instability graphs show a different story.


Instability is driven mostly by low-level moisture and mid-level temperatures.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1650 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:19 pm

Without a doubt one of the most impressive stretches of activity in the modern era for the Atlantic. Or any basin for that matter.

Image
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1651 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:35 pm

^ Definitely one of the most impressive in the satellite era, and most such stretches beforehand were probably broken by brief undetected tropical storms. No such break here...
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1652 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:54 pm

wxman57 wrote:The March ECMWF seasonal forecasts are in, though I can't post the images. Basically, the EC is forecasting 80% normal ACE for the Atlantic. Below-normal activity in both the Atlantic & East Pac this season, while the West Pac is well above-normal. High pressure and dry air dominate the deep tropics between Africa & the eastern Caribbean, making that region hostile for development.

oops

(EDIT: not to 57, directed @ the ECMWF forecasts)
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1653 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:14 am

SuperMarioBros99thx wrote:I don't know where i want to post this, but i want to tell you that this season had a possibility to be the costliest ever Atlantic hurricane season in the history, (showing worst-case scenarios): with Harvey making more than $100B+ (even maybe to $200B+), Irma hitting Miami (and further) costing more than $50B to $200B's, Possibility of Katia and/or Nate hitting New Orleans as MH (in case of Nate, Cat. 2) costing $100B+ dollars, Jose (based on Euro run) makes a Hurricane Phoenix scenario costing $100B+ dollars, Maria making a Sandy re-run (primarily New York/New Jersey) and costing $70B+, and further storms. What should we do now? Ugh... :double:

this post may be half true, but the season is now considered (through Harvey, Irma and Maria damage estimates) the costliest Atlantic hurricane season in recorded history. Three $50 billion hurricanes is unprecedented after a break from no major hurricanes for over a decade, to all these striking the US as cat 4's (PR is a US territory).
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1654 Postby WeatherHoon » Thu Sep 28, 2017 10:40 pm

I know we're seemingly entering into a La Nina state, but are there any possible signs that would suggest a basin shutdown for October (shear, dry air, shear etc)? The thoughts and attitudes shared around the weather blogs and forums seem to call for a hyperactive October, just curious as to what could negate that.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1655 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 29, 2017 6:35 am

Last time we had a cool spell in the east and cold fronts making it pretty far south it was followed up by the big burst in activity. The pattern was unusually cool in the east/midwest, then upper lows everywhere, and then all the activity. I'm not sure I can trust any indicator at this point.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1656 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Sep 29, 2017 6:58 am

WeatherHoon wrote:I know we're seemingly entering into a La Nina state, but are there any possible signs that would suggest a basin shutdown for October (shear, dry air, shear etc)? The thoughts and attitudes shared around the weather blogs and forums seem to call for a hyperactive October, just curious as to what could negate that.

All of the indicators (Caribbean SSTs, shear and MJO) would generally point to an active October but the Atlantic doesn't always follow the indicators.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1657 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:15 am

The Caribbean now has the warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin, this is the area to watch over the next couple of weeks, IMO.
It will really surprise me if we do not see a major hurricane develop in this area during the month of October.

Image

TCHP is through the roof in the central and western Caribbean.

Image
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1658 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:34 am

Not to pick on JB, but many pros really busted on their early season forecast, except for his forecast for the western GOM he busted big time on the rest of his forecast.
2017 has been the contrary to what happened during 2013 that many were forecasting a very busy season. I think from now on early season forecasts have to be taken as a percentage of a very low chance of coming to fruition, with percentage going up as the season starts and forecasters get a better grip on actual conditions across the basin and pacific ocean, etc. I think NOAA has the best idea of waiting to get closer to June 1st for them to release their forecast, so many things can change between March and June.
If I was a pro-met I would wait until July 1st to come out with the forecast :lol:

Image
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1659 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:39 am

NDG wrote:Not to pick on JB, but many pros really busted on their early season forecast, except for his forecast for the western GOM he busted big time on the rest of his forecast.
2017 has been the contrary to what happened during 2013 that many were forecasting a very busy season. I think from now on early season forecasts have to be taken as a percentage of a very low chance of coming to fruition, with percentage going up as the season starts and forecasters get a better grip on actual conditions across the basin and pacific ocean, etc. I think NOAA has the best idea of waiting to get closer to June 1st for them to release their forecast, so many things can change between March and June.
If I was a pro-met I would wait until July 1st to come out with the forecast :lol:

Image


Despite this, he's been spinning his performance on Twitter by saying he did well other than ACE. So, he's downplaying his ACE fail, which he admits, by saying he was right in his call for the concentration of activity in the W basin.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1660 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:01 am

NDG wrote:The Caribbean now has the warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin, this is the area to watch over the next couple of weeks, IMO.
It will really surprise me if we do not see a major hurricane develop in this area during the month of October.

Image

TCHP is through the roof in the central and western Caribbean.


This very warm W. Caribbean along with ENSO related climo says that FL must stay on extra alert for any H that might hit them in Oct due to this: there have been 10 major H hits on FL in Oct since 1865 (about one every 15 years on average) and those 10 seasons had these Nino 3.4 anomalies (credit to Eric Webb for pre-1950 data):

SON trimonthly average : -0.03, -0.3, -0.32, -0.39, -0.40, -0.50, -0.66, -0.80, -1.00. and -1.10

So, not one +SON and no real strongly -SON. These SON's pretty much surround where we are projected to go for the SON average per the Sept dynamic model forecast plume average, which is -0.50. Most of the better models like Euro, UKMET, JMA, CFSv2, Australian, Korean, etc., are within the -0.30 to -0.90 range:

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... -sst_table

Edit: The 10 seasons with major H hits on FL in Oct since 1865, ALL of which originated in the W Caribbean:
1873, 1894, 1906, 1909, 1921, 1926, 1950, 1964, 1995, and 2005
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