2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1661 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:16 am

NDG wrote:Not to pick on JB, but many pros really busted on their early season forecast, except for his forecast for the western GOM he busted big time on the rest of his forecast.
2017 has been the contrary to what happened during 2013 that many were forecasting a very busy season. I think from now on early season forecasts have to be taken as a percentage of a very low chance of coming to fruition, with percentage going up as the season starts and forecasters get a better grip on actual conditions across the basin and pacific ocean, etc. I think NOAA has the best idea of waiting to get closer to June 1st for them to release their forecast, so many things can change between March and June.
If I was a pro-met I would wait until July 1st to come out with the forecast :lol:

[i mg]http://oi68.tinypic.com/2ec26hi.jpg[/img]


Weatherbell issued an updated forecast on June 26th which removed the below normal area and put the entire gulf and east coast (including all of Florida and the Bahamas) in red. The red area extended down to PR and the northern islands. I just respectfully disagree with him overly bragging about it both on the Weatherbell subscriber feed and on twitter. :) It wasn't a horrible forecast but there's nothing perfect or groundbreaking about it. His red zone did not include the areas of explosive development of both Irma and Maria.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1662 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 29, 2017 9:32 am

tolakram wrote:
NDG wrote:Not to pick on JB, but many pros really busted on their early season forecast, except for his forecast for the western GOM he busted big time on the rest of his forecast.
2017 has been the contrary to what happened during 2013 that many were forecasting a very busy season. I think from now on early season forecasts have to be taken as a percentage of a very low chance of coming to fruition, with percentage going up as the season starts and forecasters get a better grip on actual conditions across the basin and pacific ocean, etc. I think NOAA has the best idea of waiting to get closer to June 1st for them to release their forecast, so many things can change between March and June.
If I was a pro-met I would wait until July 1st to come out with the forecast :lol:

[i mg]http://oi68.tinypic.com/2ec26hi.jpg[/img]


Weatherbell issued an updated forecast on June 26th which removed the below normal area and put the entire gulf and east coast (including all of Florida and the Bahamas) in red. The red area extended down to PR and the northern islands. I just respectfully disagree with him overly bragging about it both on the Weatherbell subscriber feed and on twitter. :) It wasn't a horrible forecast but there's nothing perfect or groundbreaking about it. His red zone did not include the areas of explosive development of both Irma and Maria.


I thought the Red Zone areas were pretty excellent. You could be off a few hundred miles here or there on a global scale and be forgiven. The main theme was the western biased season. And it's definitely been that.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1663 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:04 am

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1664 Postby chaser1 » Fri Sep 29, 2017 12:42 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
SuperMarioBros99thx wrote:I don't know where i want to post this, but i want to tell you that this season had a possibility to be the costliest ever Atlantic hurricane season in the history, (showing worst-case scenarios): with Harvey making more than $100B+ (even maybe to $200B+), Irma hitting Miami (and further) costing more than $50B to $200B's, Possibility of Katia and/or Nate hitting New Orleans as MH (in case of Nate, Cat. 2) costing $100B+ dollars, Jose (based on Euro run) makes a Hurricane Phoenix scenario costing $100B+ dollars, Maria making a Sandy re-run (primarily New York/New Jersey) and costing $70B+, and further storms. What should we do now? Ugh... :double:

this post may be half true, but the season is now considered (through Harvey, Irma and Maria damage estimates) the costliest Atlantic hurricane season in recorded history. Three $50 billion hurricanes is unprecedented after a break from no major hurricanes for over a decade, to all these striking the US as cat 4's (PR is a US territory).



I can't even begin to wrap my head around what the final damage estimates will end up for Puerto Rico alone. I mean, imagine an entire state like West Virginia (well, meaning any smaller state in general with an approx. similar population density), nearly completely decimated?? I can't help but wonder "if", or whether there's some level of diminished horror or detached astonishment by many Americans simply out of the fact that Puerto Rico is "an Island" and geographically separated from the CONUS itself (such as Hawaii). Furthermore, I sense that there's always been a largely perceived general separation of unity that has existed between "us and them". Whether that perception is primarily a fault of our educational system, a result of lessoned cultural familiarity and assimilation into our broader collective national identity, political distinction (non-statehood vs. statehood), or just endemic of an overall lesser interaction/association between the greater CONUS American population and those from Puerto Rico itself. Anyhow, i'm sorry & didn't mean to alter the direction of this thread nor am I attempting to make any type of political statement. On the contrary, my observation is just out of the awe of so much damage and an empathy toward an entire population and their infrastructure. It's not necessarily relevant whether such an event directly impacted a part of the U.S., or Dominica, or Mexico (earthquake). Sadly though, there are a number of Americans that do feel that our own level of "American" focus towards a faster better aid response, is feeling so much like Katrina's aftermath. Kinda like Katrina redux.... possibly worse. And maybe just maybe, it's simply a matter of our society having grandiose expectation yet limited capacity, resulting in another sober realization of our societies' logistical shortcomings in the face of a random & horrifically devastating impact by nature itself. A force so much bigger then ourselves that many of us just can't help be fascinated by it's science; a force so much bigger then ourselves that at times make its aftermath, death, and destruction difficult for us to rationalize & absorb, and ultimately a helplessness and isolation even harder for those having to cope with and survive.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1665 Postby Ryxn » Fri Sep 29, 2017 3:08 pm

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1666 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:10 pm

Warmer than normal Western and Central Caribbean with the EPAC waters south of Mexico cooling. Just compare to a week ago and you will notice a difference. It is not a matter of if the Western Caribbean will produce a hurricane (quite likely a major) but a matter of when. October seems likely but would not rule out November and the possibility more than one hurricane between now and season end.

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1667 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 01, 2017 7:03 pm

When's the last time we had no active systems or invests on the map?
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1668 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Oct 01, 2017 7:30 pm

Hammy wrote:When's the last time we had no active systems or invests on the map?

Shortly after Gert I'm assuming.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1669 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 01, 2017 7:31 pm

Hammy wrote:When's the last time we had no active systems or invests on the map?


Late July or early August I believe?
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1670 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 01, 2017 7:31 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Hammy wrote:When's the last time we had no active systems or invests on the map?

Shortly after Gert I'm assuming.


Nope, Harvey formed right after Gert dissipated (remember Harvey lived for a week as a puny storm, and then its remnants spinning).
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1671 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:03 am

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/914834924737318913




Eric Blake ✔@EricBlake12
Fascinating map of the #hurricane season so far- never seen so many NE Caribbean strong storms right where the TUTT should be- remarkable.
8:50 AM - Oct 2, 2017

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1672 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 03, 2017 7:37 pm

Looking at the latest GFS, we see no signs of fall at all across North America with a large and expansive ridge that seems semi-permanent throughout the run. I do think with La Niña and with no sign of the westerlies intruding into the Western Caribbean that we will see another Caribbean storm later this month and/or November, possibly a major too.

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1673 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:10 pm

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1674 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 09, 2017 3:28 pm

It may be quite for the at least the next 10 days until the wet-phase of the MJO arrives in the Caribbean/EPAC areas. The CFS has pushed out when the wet phase will arrive again to end of month / early November:

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1675 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Oct 09, 2017 5:26 pm

gatorcane wrote:It may be quite for the at least the next 10 days until the wet-phase of the MJO arrives in the Caribbean/EPAC areas. The CFS has pushed out when the wet phase will arrive again to end of month / early November:

Image

IMO we could see one last major hurricane out of the Caribbean in the last wet phase before November 30.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1676 Postby otowntiger » Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:39 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looking at the latest GFS, we see no signs of fall at all across North America with a large and expansive ridge that seems semi-permanent throughout the run. I do think with La Niña and with no sign of the westerlies intruding into the Western Caribbean that we will see another Caribbean storm later this month and/or November, possibly a major too.

Image

That's a setup that would keep the CONUS hot and hurricane free! Wow- what a ridge!
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1677 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:05 pm

It seems whatever signs there were of another potential Caribbean TC later this month have since diminished completely. Wouldn't be surprised if Ophelia is it for the rest of the month.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1678 Postby norva » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:24 am

Way to early to get comfortable imo. Lot of month left to go.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1679 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:05 am

otowntiger wrote:That's a setup that would keep the CONUS hot and hurricane free! Wow- what a ridge!


I love your optimism, and truly hope that you are correct! But with MJO coming around end of Oct and November, La Nina, and also no cold fronts getting to Florida anytime soon- meaning that this November will be more like a Normal October, this means we still need to watch the Carib into November. The MJO arriving late Oct coincides with timing that would match Mitch or Paloma in years past.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1680 Postby otowntiger » Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:54 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
otowntiger wrote:That's a setup that would keep the CONUS hot and hurricane free! Wow- what a ridge!


I love your optimism, and truly hope that you are correct! But with MJO coming around end of Oct and November, La Nina, and also no cold fronts getting to Florida anytime soon- meaning that this November will be more like a Normal October, this means we still need to watch the Carib into November. The MJO arriving late Oct coincides with timing that would match Mitch or Paloma in years past.

I understand what you are saying, but my comment was strictly related to that particular set up. Of course I know patterns aren't static, just saying if that as long as the ridge is that strong (if that setup verifies) no hurricane would come our way. As things evolve of course it will change. But according to models I'm not seeing much to worry about.
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