2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1681 Postby otowntiger » Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:01 am

norva wrote:Way to early to get comfortable imo. Lot of month left to go.

Ehh, there is also nothing happening or even forecast to be happening worth worrying about. Until something actually spins up, it's nice to relax while you can.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1682 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:34 am

I'm thinking that any activity in the Caribbean will wait until late October or early November. That's when the TUTT-inducing subsidence over the basin should begin to move out and upper-level +VVP moves in. However, the interval should be long enough to delay formation until the last week of October, if not later. This delay is crucial. A delay would put formation on or after 23 October. The latest major hurricane to hit the mainland U.S. occurred on 25 October 1921 near Tarpon Springs, Florida. Historically, most of the hurricanes to hit the U.S. in October and November occurred in South Florida in October, with a significant drop-off in activity around Halloween. Only a few rarities like the 1935 Yankee hurricane and Kate (1985), both November hurricanes and Florida hits each, have hit the U.S. on a date later than Halloween. So I think that the mainland U.S. is likely to escape further hurricane hits in 2017, barring something like the latter two cases. However, I do think that one additional major hurricane in the Caribbean is likely, and that it would probably impact Central America or the Antilles. The threat to those areas often continues well into November in active seasons such as 1932, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2008, and last season.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1683 Postby psyclone » Sat Oct 14, 2017 11:43 am

:uarrow: Precisely what I'm thinking. With nothing imminent it's just too late stateside. Nate was likely Florida's October hurricane...it just forgot to come to Florida. Hopefully this pans out..I'm ready to slam the door on this season and get some cooler weather.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1684 Postby toad strangler » Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:09 pm

Shell Mound wrote:I'm thinking that any activity in the Caribbean will wait until late October or early November. That's when the TUTT-inducing subsidence over the basin should begin to move out and upper-level +VVP moves in. However, the interval should be long enough to delay formation until the last week of October, if not later. This delay is crucial. A delay would put formation on or after 23 October. The latest major hurricane to hit the mainland U.S. occurred on 25 October 1921 near Tarpon Springs, Florida. Historically, most of the hurricanes to hit the U.S. in October and November occurred in South Florida in October, with a significant drop-off in activity around Halloween. Only a few rarities like the 1935 Yankee hurricane and Kate (1985), both November hurricanes and Florida hits each, have hit the U.S. on a date later than Halloween. So I think that the mainland U.S. is likely to escape further hurricane hits in 2017, barring something like the latter two cases. However, I do think that one additional major hurricane in the Caribbean is likely, and that it would probably impact Central America or the Antilles. The threat to those areas often continues well into November in active seasons such as 1932, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2008, and last season.



Wilma landfall was 10/24
This season has been fairly anomalous and that combined with no real front progged to sweep through leaves me still pretty wary.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1685 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:14 pm

:uarrow: Check the Global Models thread as the latest 12z GFS maybe latching onto development occurring in the NW Caribbean in 8-10 days from that disturbance we've been talking about for days. Aligns perfectly with climatology.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1686 Postby psyclone » Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:26 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Check the Global Models thread as the latest 12z GFS maybe latching onto development occurring in the NW Caribbean in 8-10 days from that disturbance we've been talking about for days. Aligns perfectly with climatology.


Make it stop. I know it's too soon to celebrate yet but I'm ready for the balloon drop.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1687 Postby MetroMike » Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:09 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Check the Global Models thread as the latest 12z GFS maybe latching onto development occurring in the NW Caribbean in 8-10 days from that disturbance we've been talking about for days. Aligns perfectly with climatology.


GFS has been latching onto development for quite some time only problem is it won't move up in the timeframe.
If it does its only for 1 run.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1688 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:38 pm

Strong CCKW expected to pass through the Atlantic in late October. Models are also beginning to hint in the long range. Season may not be over yet.


https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/919933529588469760
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