Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO

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Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO

#1 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Mar 06, 2017 8:22 pm

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Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO

#2 Postby Alyono » Mon Mar 06, 2017 9:53 pm

Where to begin

1. El Niño is likely, not neutral. May very well be east based as well
2. Aren't MDR water temps likely to be below normal?
3. The fact we may be in a quiet phase. Only becamse active last year due to the PDO crash in late September, which allowed for about 85 ACE after September 25 (Matthew, Nicole, and Otto were a near average season by themselves)
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Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO

#3 Postby gatorcane » Mon Mar 06, 2017 10:05 pm

Seems there is a lot of latent heat buildup with warmer than normal SSTs across the Gulf and with Miami seeing its warmest winter on record to to mention a real lack of winter across much of the United States this year. The second year after El Niño is also one to watch especially after the record-breaking El Niño we saw in 2015, we are in some uncharted waters this year. The key will be whether an El Niño makes a comeback but it could very well be a weak one or Modoki at best so I am with the GWO's prediction of higher numbers this year than last.
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Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO

#4 Postby Ntxw » Mon Mar 06, 2017 10:17 pm

GWO has not been a great source of accuracy the past several years at least what they have made public. I know they are a private bunch and perhaps what they show internally may benefit only their clients but myself and others made posts (wxman57) about them adjusting and verification issues for what they show publicly. See below

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116998&start=20

Last year they were removed from our expert list due to these verification issues
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Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO

#5 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Mar 06, 2017 11:59 pm

They have no scientific reasoning behind their forecast and most times they're dreadful
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Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO

#6 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:23 am

What did they forecast last season?

They don't publish past forecasts on their website, but I found the 2016 forecast at the wayback machine. They were a bit high on their numbers. The term "major impact hurricane" is vague. I suppose Matthew had a major impact on some areas. Just about any hurricane has a major impact on someone.

GWO predicts 2016 will enter a "Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle
17 named storms - 9 hurricanes - 4 major hurricanes
Major Impact hurricane will likely strike the U.S. in 2016
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Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO

#7 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:49 am

They nailed the number of MH's for the 2016 but were only short two for both NS's and H's. I'd say it was mostly luck as to why they came so close to being spot on with last seasons numbers, but what do I know.
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Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO

#8 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Mar 10, 2017 12:19 pm

Let’s face the “Sky is falling” is the best technique for selling their product. And as said before they were dropped because of their verification difficulties. If you go to their site you will notice that they have 11 zones, each zone costing $147.99 (with the exception of zone 11 which inexplicably cost $199.99). Just for the fun of it I was thinking of purchasing the zone 3 package, but I spent it on a $150.00 on shipping a debit card worth 10.5 million (yes, I’m kidding). Btw, I would be upset if I lived in Brownsville, why is that report $50.00 more than all the rest.
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Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO

#9 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:25 pm

Warm ocean temperatures don't get systems developing though, and they can't always counteract other factors like shear and dry air.

Even in the least active seasons with below normal SST's, the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and near the Bahamas are more than warm enough to support a major hurricane.
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Maybe GWO hurricane prediction isn't unrealistic after all

#10 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon May 08, 2017 11:25 am

with all the new info coming out, EURO showing what its showing now, maybe GWO is on to something.

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2017/02/prweb14025554.htm

http://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/
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Re: Maybe GWO hurricane prediction isn't unrealistic after all

#11 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon May 08, 2017 2:31 pm

Maybe but there is no real reasoning in their forecast
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Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO

#12 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:53 am

It's not yet even October, but here we are at 13 storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 majors and 2 category 5's (possibly 3) with an ACE approaching 200 for the first time in over the decade. Another noteworthy feature: Harvey broke the US drought of major hurricanes after 11 years, with Irma following the former a few weeks later over South Florida. All predictions have underestimated this season and sadly, it is a dangerous one indeed.
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Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO

#13 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 10:38 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:It's not yet even October, but here we are at 13 storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 majors and 2 category 5's (possibly 3) with an ACE approaching 200 for the first time in over the decade. Another noteworthy feature: Harvey broke the US drought of major hurricanes after 11 years, with Irma following the former a few weeks later over South Florida. All predictions have underestimated this season and sadly, it is a dangerous one indeed.


Not "all" predictions :wink: Take a look back at the pre-season Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (though, if "all" referring to professional organizations than yes i'd agree with that statement)
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Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO

#14 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 28, 2017 10:52 am

NOAA mid season update was stellar at a time when things were still pretty slow.
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Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO

#15 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:07 am

Sky did fall in 2017..great forecast or lucky call who knows..
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Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO

#16 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:28 am

Ntxw wrote:GWO has not been a great source of accuracy the past several years at least what they have made public. I know they are a private bunch and perhaps what they show internally may benefit only their clients but myself and others made posts (wxman57) about them adjusting and verification issues for what they show publicly. See below

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116998&start=20

Last year they were removed from our expert list due to these verification issues


Rightfully removed I might add. Its far easier for any single person or group to come in after the effect and suddenly present numbers and details that no one else can clearly verify. If a theory, model or tool exists that can more accurately predict an upcoming hurricane season (not to mention further claims to predicts 2 years in advance), then come forward and "wow the critical thinkers" with one's dazzling skill. Otherwise, all that we're seeing is yet another snake oil salesman making broad and vague claims just to fill in the missing details when the dust has finally cleared and fallen.

Tell ya what, I suggest that S2K come out with their own "paid prognostication" service that simply uses a correlated S2K Member group poll average (or a group average and then weighted by the 10 most accurately predicated members for the prior season). The prediction will likewise predict the upcoming years' total activity, number of hurricanes, T.S.'s, Major 'Canes, ACE, as well as anticipated regional zones of heightened storm track and projected risk. I think there's plenty of historical data to support the argument of a greater collective accuracy by prior year S2K Polls as compared to other professional or renown agencies and organizations. The service can be sold to Private & Commercial entities for a price that would amount to 1% of the cost that GWO charges, and additionally provide these paying customers free unfettered access to member opinion, analysis, & insights. S2K gains a boost in Internet traffic, further visibility to the worldwide amateur and professional meteorology community, and perhaps adds an additional vertical source of revenue to S2K coffers. Meanwhile, S2K poll members who participated in that years' generated Seasonal Prediction can be reciprocated by each polling member receiving a free (S2k Weather or Storm Geek?) tee shirt and special avatar indicating a new unique member group status within S2K.
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Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO

#17 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:32 am

toad strangler wrote:NOAA mid season update was stellar at a time when things were still pretty slow.


What? Wait...., you mean the mid season update that expressed an increase in seasonal activity that may ultimately range from 10-30 named tropical systems LOL, or whatever their "range" system puts out? :cheesy:
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Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO

#18 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:33 am

chaser1 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:NOAA mid season update was stellar at a time when things were still pretty slow.


What? Wait...., you mean the mid season update that expressed an increase in seasonal activity that may ultimately range from 10-30 named tropical systems LOL, or whatever their "range" system puts out? :cheesy:


No, they specifically warned about a huge ramp up.
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Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO

#19 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 1:04 pm

toad strangler wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:NOAA mid season update was stellar at a time when things were still pretty slow.


What? Wait...., you mean the mid season update that expressed an increase in seasonal activity that may ultimately range from 10-30 named tropical systems LOL, or whatever their "range" system puts out? :cheesy:


No, they specifically warned about a huge ramp up.


Yes they did however I'm rather poking fun at how this accurately predictive "ramp up" was
1) announced on August 9
2) increased from 11-17 named storms, to 14 to 19 named tropical systems this year.

I don't find it nearly that impressive if their forecast was "11 named storms" that was upped to "14 named storms. I'd be far more impressed if their forecast "was" 17 named storms and increased to 19 named storms. By the way, NOAA's forecast for number of named storms reaching hurricane intensity, did not change from early on and was predicted to be from 5-9. That's like me predicting a soccer team is going to score from 2-4 goals on any given night. Like "really", no kidding lol?? (for those who will respond, "well, they're not in the seasonal prediction business..." thats okay neither am I, or are many other people I know).
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Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO

#20 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:37 pm

chaser1 wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:It's not yet even October, but here we are at 13 storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 majors and 2 category 5's (possibly 3) with an ACE approaching 200 for the first time in over the decade. Another noteworthy feature: Harvey broke the US drought of major hurricanes after 11 years, with Irma following the former a few weeks later over South Florida. All predictions have underestimated this season and sadly, it is a dangerous one indeed.


Not "all" predictions :wink: Take a look back at the pre-season Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (though, if "all" referring to professional organizations than yes i'd agree with that statement)

I don't think anyone expected 200 ACE. I'm focused on the ACE/intensity over the storm count itself
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