Low pressure north of Hispanola: Sub-Tropical (Tropical?) development? (INVEST 90L is up)

[cycloneye]

Is time to have a thread for the possible development that the models have been advertising in the past runs as we have an incipient area of disturb weather north of Hispanola/Puerto Rico with a low pressure.Invest status may not be far away for this.Since 1908 no March development has occurred but will it happen in 2017?

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, this is a pretty good bet to develop at this juncture and attain at least sub-tropical status. Could get close to Bermuda mid to late week. Remarkable that we could see a hybrid/sub-tropical cyclone before even the start of April.

[tropicwatch]

Could be blustery along the southeastern Bahama's.

[cycloneye]

This is already forming.

[wxman57]

100% chance it will develop into a storm with winds 40-50 mph, but what is the chance that the NHC will bother with classifying and naming it.

[cycloneye]

100% chance it will develop into a storm with winds 40-50 mph, but what is the chance that the NHC will bother with classifying and naming it.

This tweet from Eric Blake on Friday shows some hint.

Eric Blake
✔
@EricBlake12
Looks like a little something to watch in the SW Atlantic next week- and I'm the lucky operational guy no delusions of grandeur please!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/845661407970512897

[cycloneye]

Closeup loop of low forming.Look around 19N-68W.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... mframes=15

[gatorcane]

Models have become more bullish, I think this has a shot of subtropical storm status.

[weathaguyry]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 251750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A surface trough extends from 25N65W to 18N68W to 12N70W. A
surface low is expected to develop in this area by this afternoon.
The pressure gradient will be sufficient to support gale-force
winds from 24N-26N between 64W-69W beginning this afternoon. The
low is expected to intensify during the next few days as it moves
northward across the Atlantic. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF at 72 hours.

[Alyono]

more tropical on the 12Z EC

[weathaguyry]

Even though it's only 55 degrees and cloudy here in New York, tracking storms like this remind me of sitting on the beach in late June, constantly refreshing the page for new updates on the storm by all of the experts on the forum! My question now is if the NHC is going to ignore this, or will this become too noticeable to ignore...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/845703416932372481

[johngaltfla]

Local Mets have picked up on the model runs and are discussing it today. This would be both a fascinating and troubling start to the 2017 season.

[gatorcane]

Impressive for March needless to say, saved rainbow loop:

[TheAustinMan]

Recent ASCAT passes showing the circulation associated with the disturbance. The two scans are from the two METOP satellites which house the ASCAT scatterometers.

[bamajammer4eva]

UKMET develops this

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.03.2017



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 22.9N 68.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 26.03.2017 22.9N 68.0W WEAK

00UTC 27.03.2017 24.1N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.03.2017 25.4N 68.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.03.2017 25.9N 67.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.03.2017 28.2N 64.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.03.2017 30.0N 61.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.03.2017 31.0N 59.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 30.03.2017 32.6N 55.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.03.2017 35.0N 50.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.03.2017 40.0N 44.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.03.2017 46.0N 39.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.04.2017 50.5N 35.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/845959619306541056

[northjaxpro]

The gale center in the SW Atlantic is quite impressive for late March. The system has an impressive wind field and the overall structure of the system is very good.