What names will be the big ones in 2017?

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What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#1 Postby Andrew92 » Fri Apr 07, 2017 12:05 am

Time for another fun "poll" we have almost every year! What names will be the big ones in 2017?

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irma
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney

I say for sure Harvey and Katia, though Cindy has given me some hairy vibes in recent years as well. I could see Franklin too as a problem.

Cindy - minimal hurricane in July, probably in the western Gulf

Franklin - possibly also a minimal hurricane, buffeting the East Coast, namely the Carolinas

Harvey - THE BIG ONE. Homegrown storm, probably forming in the Bahamas, moving slowly into the Gulf and becoming a major hurricane before making landfall, probably western or central Louisiana in the marshes

Katia - another nasty storm, this time for the East Coast, probably in late September or early October as a major hurricane

Eh, what do I know? Could be somewhat El Nino, but I am sensing a season laden with homegrown potential. We'll see.

-Andrew92
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Re: What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#2 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Apr 07, 2017 7:48 am

I'm thinking Franklin is an early season major hurricane in August that strikes Texas as a strong Cat 2.
Gert forms soon after, and strikes Nicaragua as a mid-cat 3.
Nate will be a major hurrricane in Late September, and the models have it out to sea but it strikes NC as a Cat 4 and NYC as a cat 3, I feel it's not out of the question for a strong strike for NYC, if the storm moves fast enough. Just a guess though...
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Re: What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#3 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Apr 07, 2017 8:47 pm

Harvey, Katia, and Sean will all impact the US. Katia will be the first major strike in the US in over a decade. :(
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Re: What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#4 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Apr 07, 2017 11:00 pm

Ill put out full season but capitalize the big ones

Arlene: forms from a frontal low off the east coast May 23rd but doesnt become subtropical until the 25th and tropical until the 26th and peaks at 50mph as it moves out into the atlantic

Bret: forms July 25th near the texas coast and peaks at landfall in Pensacola as a 60mph TS because of shear on July 27th

CINDY: forms in the Bahamas August 10th and intensifies into a 135mph hurricane just east of Cape Hatteras on August 12th and accelerates NNE landfalling in central Long Island as a 115mph hurricane August 13th

Don: forms at around 10N 40W on August 12th and peaks at landfall in South America as a 50mph TS

Emily: Forms around Bermuda on August 20th and peaks at 90mph August 21st and makes landfall in Nova Scotia as a 75mph hurricane on August 22nd

Franklin Forms SE of the Azores on August 29th and peaks as a 80mph hurricane at landfall in the Azores August 30th and continues to go and make landfall in France as a 40mph TS on September 2nd

GERT: Forms north of Puerto Rico September 10th and heads west and landfalls in the Bahamas as a 100mph September 13th and continues to intensify making landfall as a 130mph hurricane in Palm Beach September 14th and continuing into the GOM rapidly intensifying into a 175mph hurricane 125mi from Houston September 16th making landfall just south of Galveston as a 145mph hurricane September 17th

HARVEY: Forms south of Pensacola from a piece of the remains of GERT September 20th and intensifies to a 70mph ts at landfall on September 21st but the steering currents break down and drops more than 25 inches of rain in about a 30000 Square Mile area before moving away

Irma: Forms in the Western Caribbean on October 3rd and moves NNE towards Cuba making landfall as a 45mph TS on October 5th dissipating on October 7th due to shear

JOSE: Forms in the western Caribbean on October 15th and heads NNE and makes landfall in the western tip of Cuba as a 75mph hurricane on October 17th and intensifies to 110mph at landfall in Sarasota on October 19th and makes a 2nd landfall as a 90mph hurricane in Wilmington NC on October 20th and a 3rd landfall in eastern Massachusetts as a 70mph ts October 21st becoming extratropical over Boston

Katia: forms west of the Canary Islands on October 29th as a subtropical storm and becomes tropical the next day landfalling at peak in the Canary Islands as a 60mph TS November 1st
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Re: What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#5 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:12 am

Something about Jose and Lee that I think are going to cause trouble.
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Re: What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#6 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Apr 11, 2017 8:40 am

Arlene-forms mid to late June over the SW GOM/Bay of Campeche. Initially begins a NWly track towards Texas while slowly strengthening to a moderate 55-60 mph TS then turns W into Northern Mexico about 90 miles S of Brownsville.

Bret-Becomes a TS just after passing through the Islands crossing the Carribean at a 15-20 mph clip. By the time Bret is South of Jamaica he is a strong 65 mph TS. Hitting a warmer pocket of water as he continues WNW towards the Yucatan becoming a CAT 1 80 mph Hurricane before crossing the NE Yucatan Peninsula moving into the S GOMabout 60 miles East of Merida as a 45 mph TS. With the W GOM warmer than normal he quckly gains Hurricane status again and continuing WNW to landfall as a Cat 2 105 mph near Kingsville, TX. Since Bret is not a large storm he causes little in the way of wind damage in this sparsely populated area. However as he slowly moves inland major rains of up to 20" develop over S. Texas causing flooding in many areas before disipating into a remnant low as he approaches the big bend area. Time frame July 9-21.

Cindy- Develops just off the coast of Georgia near Tybee Island. Fueled by the always warm Gulf Stream she becomes a 65 mph TS quickly and parallels the Atlantic coast about 40 miles offshore as she heads out to sea. With a large moisture envelope she causes flooding from her rains all along the Carolina coasts. Time frame July 22-26.

Don-Small TS that forms in the far Southern Carribean near the coast of South America and parallels it as a 50 mph TS before disapating just to the West of Aruba. Time frame- August 1-5

Emily- after crossing the Atlantic as a somewhat robust tropical wave Emily finally develops into a TS just North of the Virgin Islands on August 6. Continuing on w to wnw track Emily steadily gains strength abecoming a Hurricane as she passes 60 miles offshore of Hispaniola. By the time she is approaching the Turks and Caicos Islands she has become a Cat 2 95 mph hurricane. With little to disrupt her core she continues gaining strength and becomes a Cat 3 115 mph major hurricane as she moves into the GOM with a direct hit on Key West with winds of 125 mph. Feeling an early cool front approaching from the NW Emily turns NW and then North about 100 miles W of the Florida peninsula. Slowing as the front approaches Emily finally turns NE and slams the Tampa Bay area with winds of 130 mph gusting to 150 mph. Along with a 15 foot storm surge this causes 10 billion dollars in damages just in the Tampa Bay area. As a weakening Emily crosses the peninsula she another 20 billion in damages during her trek across the Orlando area and out to sea continuing NE into the Atlantic where she becomes extratropical finally. Time frame August 7-19.

Franklin-forms just North of the the West tip of Cuba from a TW that struggles clear across the Atlantic from the coast of Africa. Stalls in that area for 2 days due to weak low level steering currents. As he slowly strengthens he begins a slow Northerrly drift gaining hurricane strength about 150 miles off the MS coast. Crossing the coast between Pascagoula and Biloxi Franklin has winds of 90 mph at landfall. Despite the fact he is a small storm only about 200 miles across damages are in the $1billion dollar range due to a higher than expected surge and massive rains causing major flooding. Time frame August 26-31.

Gert-Forming just before the peak of season Gert becomes a TS about 500 miles East of the Leeward Islands. continuing W to WNW across the Atlantic Gert becomes a hurricane about 100 miles East of the islands. Feeling a weakness in the ridge to her North the continuously strengthening Gert becomes a major Hurricane as she passes about 70 miles North ot the islands and begins to turn North. As a CAT 4 135 mph storm she passes about 80 miles East of Bermuda on her way to her demise in the North Atlantic. Time frame September 8-18

Harvey- Forming in The East Carribean now overly hot due to so few storms forming there so far this season Harvey quickly spins into a Hurricane and heads West across the Carribean on a beeline for Honduras, never wavering from that track and landfalls as a high end CAT 2 110 mph storm. Time frame September 21-27.

Irma-forms in the S GOM Irma moves almost straight North and crosses the Texas coast just West of Freeport as a 70 mph TS. Due to her slow movement Irma brings rains up to 25" over three days as she slowly disapates and move N-NE across East Texas bringing massive flooding to most of SE TX. Damages are $5 billion due mostly to inland flooding. Unfortunately 10 people drown during the flooding. Time frame October 2-7.

Jose- Forms over the Bahamas and move quickly North and NE out to sea. Time frame October 11-16.

Katia-forms off the end of a cold front in the SW GOM/Bay of Campeche and crosses the coast of Mexico as a minimal TS with winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. Rains are nominal for a small poorly organized TS so Katia does little in the way of damage.

Lee- quickly forms and disapates off the coast of NC Barely reaches TS strength and heads out to sea quickly bringing little in the way of rain to NC also.
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Re: What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#7 Postby gatorcane » Tue Apr 11, 2017 2:09 pm

vbhoutex wrote:Emily- after crossing the Atlantic as a somewhat robust tropical wave Emily finally develops into a TS just North of the Virgin Islands on August 6. Continuing on w to wnw track Emily steadily gains strength abecoming a Hurricane as she passes 60 miles offshore of Hispaniola. By the time she is approaching the Turks and Caicos Islands she has become a Cat 2 95 mph hurricane. With little to disrupt her core she continues gaining strength and becomes a Cat 3 115 mph major hurricane as she moves into the GOM with a direct hit on Key West with winds of 125 mph. Feeling an early cool front approaching from the NW Emily turns NW and then North about 100 miles W of the Florida peninsula. Slowing as the front approaches Emily finally turns NE and slams the Tampa Bay area with winds of 130 mph gusting to 150 mph. Along with a 15 foot storm surge this causes 10 billion dollars in damages just in the Tampa Bay area. As a weakening Emily crosses the peninsula she another 20 billion in damages during her trek across the Orlando area and out to sea continuing NE into the Atlantic where she becomes extratropical finally. Time frame August 7-19.


Yikes that would be real bad for Florida :eek: :double:
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Re: What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#8 Postby Kazmit » Tue Apr 11, 2017 4:21 pm

Franklin, Gert, and Harvey all sound like hurricanes to me. Irma sounds destructive, especially since it's an I name :roll:

Franklin- minimal fish hurricane, may hit Bermuda.
Gert- Caribbean cat 2, hits central america and/or Yucatan.
Harvey- Gulf storm. A cat 3 at peak. Hits somewhere along the Gulf Coast as a minimal cat 3.
Irma- Develops near the Bahamas. RI's into a weak cat 4 briefly, then gradually weakens as it rides up the East Coast, eventually grazing long island as a weak cat 1, or post-tropical storm.

These are only based on what I think the names sound like they should be :P
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Re: What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#9 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Apr 12, 2017 10:32 pm

This is my thought for the tracks of 2017. Maria (the last storm) is the most memorable and the strongest November storm of our lifetimes (becoming a Cat 5 on November 2).

Image

Tropical Storm Arlene: May 13 - 17
* Peak intensity - 55 kt / 991mb

Tropical Storm Bret: June 20 - 23
* Peak intensity - 50 kt / 999 mb

Tropical Storm Cindy: July 29 - 31
* Peak intensity - 35 kt / 1005 mb

Tropical Storm Don: August 2 - 5
* Peak intensity - 40 kt / 1004 mb

Tropical Storm Emily: August 18 - 20
* Peak intensity - 60 kt / 995 mb

Hurricane Franklin: August 24 - 31
* Peak intensity - 90 kt / 967 mb

Tropical Storm Gert: August 30 - September 3
* Peak intensity - 55 kt / 999 mb

Hurricane Harvey: September 2 - 7
* Peak intensity - 65 kt / 987 mb

Hurricane Irma: September 17 - 24
* Peak intensity - 70 kt / 978 mb

Tropical Storm Jose: September 18 - 20
* Peak intensity - 50 kt / 992 mb

Major Hurricane Katia: September 25 - October 5
* Peak intensity - 110 kt / 963 mb

Tropical Storm Lee: October 22 - 24
* Peak intensity - 40 kt / 1002 mb

Major Hurricane Maria: October 28 - November 8
* Peak intensity - 145 kt / 920 mb
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Re: What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#10 Postby Kazmit » Thu Apr 13, 2017 4:53 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:This is my thought for the tracks of 2017. Maria (the last storm) is the most memorable and the strongest November storm of our lifetimes (becoming a Cat 5 on November 2).

Image

Tropical Storm Arlene: May 13 - 17
* Peak intensity - 55 kt / 991mb

Tropical Storm Bret: June 20 - 23
* Peak intensity - 50 kt / 999 mb

Tropical Storm Cindy: July 29 - 31
* Peak intensity - 35 kt / 1005 mb

Tropical Storm Don: August 2 - 5
* Peak intensity - 40 kt / 1004 mb

Tropical Storm Emily: August 18 - 20
* Peak intensity - 60 kt / 995 mb

Hurricane Franklin: August 24 - 31
* Peak intensity - 90 kt / 967 mb

Tropical Storm Gert: August 30 - September 3
* Peak intensity - 55 kt / 999 mb

Hurricane Harvey: September 2 - 7
* Peak intensity - 65 kt / 987 mb

Hurricane Irma: September 17 - 24
* Peak intensity - 70 kt / 978 mb

Tropical Storm Jose: September 18 - 20
* Peak intensity - 50 kt / 992 mb

Major Hurricane Katia: September 25 - October 5
* Peak intensity - 110 kt / 963 mb

Tropical Storm Lee: October 22 - 24
* Peak intensity - 40 kt / 1002 mb

Major Hurricane Maria: October 28 - November 8
* Peak intensity - 145 kt / 920 mb


Oh wow, Maria would be absolutely catastrophic. Probably worse than Matthew because it landfalls on Florida and then proceeds to ram into the Chesapeake bay area :eek: But if a cat 5 were to occur, I would agree that it would be later in the season, as what happened last year. But this is all hypothetical and probably (hopefully) unlikely.
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Re: What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#11 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Apr 13, 2017 6:20 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:This is my thought for the tracks of 2017. Maria (the last storm) is the most memorable and the strongest November storm of our lifetimes (becoming a Cat 5 on November 2).

Image

Tropical Storm Arlene: May 13 - 17
* Peak intensity - 55 kt / 991mb

Tropical Storm Bret: June 20 - 23
* Peak intensity - 50 kt / 999 mb

Tropical Storm Cindy: July 29 - 31
* Peak intensity - 35 kt / 1005 mb

Tropical Storm Don: August 2 - 5
* Peak intensity - 40 kt / 1004 mb

Tropical Storm Emily: August 18 - 20
* Peak intensity - 60 kt / 995 mb

Hurricane Franklin: August 24 - 31
* Peak intensity - 90 kt / 967 mb

Tropical Storm Gert: August 30 - September 3
* Peak intensity - 55 kt / 999 mb

Hurricane Harvey: September 2 - 7
* Peak intensity - 65 kt / 987 mb

Hurricane Irma: September 17 - 24
* Peak intensity - 70 kt / 978 mb

Tropical Storm Jose: September 18 - 20
* Peak intensity - 50 kt / 992 mb

Major Hurricane Katia: September 25 - October 5
* Peak intensity - 110 kt / 963 mb

Tropical Storm Lee: October 22 - 24
* Peak intensity - 40 kt / 1002 mb

Major Hurricane Maria: October 28 - November 8
* Peak intensity - 145 kt / 920 mb

Where on the NHC site did you go to create this map?
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Re: What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#12 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Apr 13, 2017 7:05 pm

I'm thinking Emily will be a big one. Seems like every other year that name shows up she makes a run at retirement, and since she was weak last time... :P Also possibly Irma and Jose.
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Re: What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#13 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Apr 13, 2017 7:10 pm

AnnularCane wrote:I'm thinking Emily will be a big one. Seems like every other year that name shows up she makes a run at retirement, and since she was weak last time... :P Also possibly Irma and Jose.

Honestly I don't know why Emily wasn't retired back after the 2005 season. Wasn't she a Cat.5 that year?
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Re: What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#14 Postby bg1 » Fri Apr 14, 2017 11:08 pm

Here is mine, which I actually made last year! You can click to watch or just skip to the text below (retired names in bold)



Link: https://youtu.be/pDJ-DVRZlHw

TS Arlene (June 18-21; post-tropical until 23rd) 45 kts / 50 mph
Typical June Gulf storm, makes landfall near the TX/LA border at peak and then heads NE, dissipating as a PT near Lake Erie.
ACE=1.4975

TD 2 (June 24-25) 25 kt / 30 mph
Lasts all of 6 hours.

C1 Bret (July 11-17; PT until 18th) 65 kt / 75 mph
Depression makes two landfalls, one on Central America, one on the Yucatan, before emerging into the GOM. Rapidly intensifies from 40 to 75 mph in 12 hours as it heads NE towards Florida. Weakens to 70 mph before landfall around Dixie or Taylor County. Heads through Carolinas becoming ET; dissipates near Nova Scotia.
ACE=2.3900

TS Cindy (July 20-23) 40 kt / 45 mph
Insanely-fast-moving storm rushes through the Lesser Antilles as a TD and nearly misses Jamaica to the S at peak as it unravels. Degenerates into a wave right after.
ACE=0.8475

C1 Don (Aug 4-12, PT until 17th) 75 kt / 85 mph
Forms well ENE of Lesser Antilles, heads WNW and affects the Bahamas as a 85-75 mph storm. Weakens to 70 mph before landfall near Miami. Second landfall 65 mph near Mobile, AL. Eventually heads over Maryland and OTS as an ET. Spends a few days in the Atlantic before dissipating.
ACE=7.4550

C1 Emily (Aug 12-18; PT until 20th) 80 kt / 90 mph
Cutoff low off Carolinas rapidly intensifies into a hurricane within its first 24 hours. Heads SW towards Florida before slowly recurving, eventually paralleling the Carolina coast and providing moderate swells. Misses Newfoundland barely to the E as an ET before dissipating. Emily survives retirement yet again.
ACE=9.2825


C4 Franklin (Aug 18-27; PT until 30th) 115 kt / 130 mph
Swipes the name right from under TD 7’s nose. TS forms N of the Antilles, affects Bahamas as a strengthening Cat 1-2. Looks to hit just SE of Homestead, FL but pulls an Ike and splits the Keys and Cuba. Reaches peak in Gulf before landfall in TX at 115 mph. This is the first MH landfall in the US since Wilma over 11 years ago. Dissipates as a PT near Lake Erie.
ACE=25.1625

TS Gert (Aug 17-19; 22-23) 35 kt / 40 mph
TD 7 takes just a bit too long to strengthen into Franklin and has to settle for Gert. Landfall at peak on Trinidad and Tobago, then again on Venezuela before degenerating. Moves due W until regenerating into a TD N of Panama. Landfall on Nicaragua before dissipating for good.
ACE= 0.4900

C4 Harvey (Aug 26-Sept 6) 125 kt / 145 mph
Cape Verde storm that takes a sudden swerve SW near the Lesser Antilles; hits Barbados at 110 mph and St. Vincent at 115 mph. Peaks in the Caribbean, landfall on the Yucatan at 90 mph. Emerges in the BOC; second Mexico landfall at 85 mph and dissipates inland.
ACE=34.7650

C2 Irma (Sept 4-11; PT until 15th) 90 kt / 105 mph
Cape Verde storm that was already in the process of recurving at genesis. Bothers nobody while reaching peak around 38.4 N and dissipating as an ET 12 hours away from France.
ACE=12.4525

C5 Jose (Sept 9-26; PT until Oct 1st) 145 kt / 165 mph
Another Cape Verde storm; moves generally due W and directly hits the island of Dominica at 100 mph. Slowly strengthens in the Caribbean before holding Category 5 strength for 30 hours as it prepares to pass through the Yucatan Channel. Expected to strike Tampa with Cat 3, 115 mph winds, but then the unthinkable happens: the steering currents break down, and Jose performs a three-day counterclockwise loop 18 hours out, weakening from 120 to 75 mph in the process. Weakens down to 70 mph before its Tampa landfall. Strengthens back to hurricane strength off the EC before clipping the OBX and racing out to sea, where it spends nearly 5 days enjoying the chilly waters of the northern Atlantic.
The fact that the US did NOT request retirement has been a cause of consternation to many who don’t realize Florida really didn’t get affected much despite its precarious position while looping.
ACE=59.1725

TS Katia (Sept 15-22; PT until 23rd) 50 kt / 60 mph
Cape Verde storm that recurved (and re-recurved back toward the NNW!) harmlessly OTS.
ACE=5.1175

C2 Lee (Sept 26-Oct 3; PT until 5th) 90 kt / 100 mph
Random low gains tropical characteristics, heads W, then NE toward Azores, then bends SE before heading ENE past the Azores. Recurves and avoids landfall on Ireland as a hurricane-strength ET, though visits Iceland after weakening. Dissipates before it could emerge off of NW Iceland.
ACE=13.4125

C2 Maria (Oct 1-4; PT until 6th) 90 kt / 105 mph
Remnants of a failed TD in the EPAC takes hold in Gulf while heading NE. Reaches peak in 36 hours, and weakens remarkably to 70 mph before landfall in Levy County in Florida**. Emerges off EC and dissipates shortly thereafter.
ACE=7.7450

TS Nate (Oct 4-7; PT until 11th) 50 kt / 60 mph
Forms from ULL, direct hit on Bermuda at peak. Slowly strengthens after ET transition. Reaches hurricane strength, weakens and dissipates NW of Ireland.
ACE=2.7625

C3 Ophelia (Oct 7-11; PT until 14th) 100 kt / 115 mph
Central Caribbean TS traveling NW weakens before tagging the tips of Haiti and Cuba (35 mph). Turns from NNW gradually to the N and then NNE, reaching peak, hits Cape Cod at 100 mph, and makes landfall in E Maine at 85 mph before ET transition completes. Exits Canada traveling NE, with a bend due E around 58.0 N. Dissipates S of Iceland.
ACE=7.2975

TS Philippe (Oct 28-Nov 1) 50 kt / 60 mph
Random storm SSW of the Azores completes an almost-perfect circle, begins again before dissipating.
ACE=4.1900

TOTAL: 16/10/4
ACE: 194.04 (Hyperactive)
67.75 straight days with at least one active storm

**And yes, somehow four hurricanes weakened down to 70 mph right before Florida landfall, and two others dodged it completely. I drew up this season last year before Hermine, so it’s not as funny anymore.
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Re: What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#15 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Apr 15, 2017 11:44 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:This is my thought for the tracks of 2017. Maria (the last storm) is the most memorable and the strongest November storm of our lifetimes (becoming a Cat 5 on November 2).

Image

Tropical Storm Arlene: May 13 - 17
* Peak intensity - 55 kt / 991mb

Tropical Storm Bret: June 20 - 23
* Peak intensity - 50 kt / 999 mb

Tropical Storm Cindy: July 29 - 31
* Peak intensity - 35 kt / 1005 mb

Tropical Storm Don: August 2 - 5
* Peak intensity - 40 kt / 1004 mb

Tropical Storm Emily: August 18 - 20
* Peak intensity - 60 kt / 995 mb

Hurricane Franklin: August 24 - 31
* Peak intensity - 90 kt / 967 mb

Tropical Storm Gert: August 30 - September 3
* Peak intensity - 55 kt / 999 mb

Hurricane Harvey: September 2 - 7
* Peak intensity - 65 kt / 987 mb

Hurricane Irma: September 17 - 24
* Peak intensity - 70 kt / 978 mb

Tropical Storm Jose: September 18 - 20
* Peak intensity - 50 kt / 992 mb

Major Hurricane Katia: September 25 - October 5
* Peak intensity - 110 kt / 963 mb

Tropical Storm Lee: October 22 - 24
* Peak intensity - 40 kt / 1002 mb

Major Hurricane Maria: October 28 - November 8
* Peak intensity - 145 kt / 920 mb

Where on the NHC site did you go to create this map?


I used the base tracking map (look in the drop down menus for "blank tracking maps"), then edited it on my own.

Overall it isn't an especially active season, especially before late October, with only one major hurricane before Maria (and only briefly so - Katia is a fast mover in the deep, deep tropics).

That said, in this simulation, 5 storms make US landfall:

* Arlene as a 55 kt TS near Cape Fear
* Bret as a 35 kt TS east of Cameron, LA
* Harvey as a 65 kt hurricane just east of Pensacola
* Irma as a 45 kt STS north of Cedar Key (and again in eastern ME when post-tropical with 60 kt winds)
* Maria as a 105 kt hurricane near Cape Romano (ending the long major hurricane drought), and as a 75 kt hurricane near Chincoteague (it becomes post-tropical about an hour later) - Maria also becomes the first major hurricane ever to hit the CONUS in November
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Re: What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#16 Postby p1nheadlarry » Wed May 31, 2017 9:27 am

Hurricaneman wrote:Ill put out full season but capitalize the big ones

Arlene: forms from a frontal low off the east coast May 23rd but doesnt become subtropical until the 25th and tropical until the 26th and peaks at 50mph as it moves out into the atlantic

Bret: forms July 25th near the texas coast and peaks at landfall in Pensacola as a 60mph TS because of shear on July 27th

CINDY: forms in the Bahamas August 10th and intensifies into a 135mph hurricane just east of Cape Hatteras on August 12th and accelerates NNE landfalling in central Long Island as a 115mph hurricane August 13th

Don: forms at around 10N 40W on August 12th and peaks at landfall in South America as a 50mph TS

Emily: Forms around Bermuda on August 20th and peaks at 90mph August 21st and makes landfall in Nova Scotia as a 75mph hurricane on August 22nd

Franklin Forms SE of the Azores on August 29th and peaks as a 80mph hurricane at landfall in the Azores August 30th and continues to go and make landfall in France as a 40mph TS on September 2nd

GERT: Forms north of Puerto Rico September 10th and heads west and landfalls in the Bahamas as a 100mph September 13th and continues to intensify making landfall as a 130mph hurricane in Palm Beach September 14th and continuing into the GOM rapidly intensifying into a 175mph hurricane 125mi from Houston September 16th making landfall just south of Galveston as a 145mph hurricane September 17th

HARVEY: Forms south of Pensacola from a piece of the remains of GERT September 20th and intensifies to a 70mph ts at landfall on September 21st but the steering currents break down and drops more than 25 inches of rain in about a 30000 Square Mile area before moving away

Irma: Forms in the Western Caribbean on October 3rd and moves NNE towards Cuba making landfall as a 45mph TS on October 5th dissipating on October 7th due to shear

JOSE: Forms in the western Caribbean on October 15th and heads NNE and makes landfall in the western tip of Cuba as a 75mph hurricane on October 17th and intensifies to 110mph at landfall in Sarasota on October 19th and makes a 2nd landfall as a 90mph hurricane in Wilmington NC on October 20th and a 3rd landfall in eastern Massachusetts as a 70mph ts October 21st becoming extratropical over Boston

Katia: forms west of the Canary Islands on October 29th as a subtropical storm and becomes tropical the next day landfalling at peak in the Canary Islands as a 60mph TS November 1st



What's with all the NC strikes on this post? This sounds like the GEM spinning up ghost storms trying to wipe the Carolinas out!
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Re: What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#17 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu Jun 01, 2017 6:45 am

Happy Hurricane Hunting! Can't believe it's Hurricane season already. I don't know what will be the big ones but sure hope they stay away from me. Everyone be safe and prepared this Hurricane season. 8-)
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Re: What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#18 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Jun 01, 2017 7:49 am

I'm getting the vibe that the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season will be an early bloomer vs. last year when we got the big one (Matthew) during the closing weeks of the season. I predict Cindy or Don will be the names to watch out for.
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Re: What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#19 Postby J_J99 » Thu Jun 01, 2017 9:20 pm

Maybe because my Great Grandmas name was Irma but I am getting a bad feeling and omen from that name.... :double:
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Re: What names will be the big ones in 2017?

#20 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Jun 03, 2017 2:25 pm

Emily...it will be revenge for having not been retired already when it obviously should have been :double:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Emily_(2005)
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