Invest Guidance Discontinued in 2017?

[wxman57]

Looks like the NHC may be discontinuing invest guidance messages in 2017. I attended one of their webinars a few weeks ago and remember them saying that the BAM model was discontinued but that the "TAB" model would take its place. Maybe that's not the case. I wonder if this means they will no longer declare invests? I sent an email to Jennifer asking about that.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/scn17-47nhc_products_termination.htm

NOUS41 KWBC 101545

Service Change Notice 17-47
National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring, MD
1145 AM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017

To: Subscribers:
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
-NOAAPort
Other NWS Partners and NWS Employees

From: Allison Allen
Chief, Marine, Tropical, and Tsunami Services Branch

Subject: Termination of Three National Hurricane Center
Guidance Messages Effective May 10, 2017

Effective May 10, 2017, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will terminate three products that contain limited tropical cyclone guidance information.

The following text products will be affected:

Product Name WMO Header AWIPS ID
------------ ---------- --------
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics WHXX04 KWBC CHGQLM
Laboratory (GFDL) Hurricane Model Message


Tropical Cyclone WHXX01 KWBC CHGHUR
Guidance Message
(Atlantic basin)

Tropical Cyclone WHXX01 KMIA CHGE77
Guidance Message
(Eastern and Central Pacific basins)


The GFDL Hurricane Model text product is being discontinued because the GFDL hurricane model is being discontinued.

Please see Service Change Notice 17-45 for details:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/scn17-45discontinue_ghm_v2.htm


The Beta Advection (BAM) and Limited Barotropic (LBAR) tropical cyclone track models included in the latter two products are also being discontinued. The BAM models are not being transitioned to the Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System (WCOSS) and the LBAR model is obsolete. These changes eliminate all of the track model guidance included in the Tropical Cyclone Guidance Message products, leaving only the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)model output. With only the SHIPS model output left, the Tropical Cyclone Guidance Message products will be discontinued.


Users can access a comprehensive real-time database of tropical cyclone guidance models, which includes the SHIPS model and other models that provide tropical cyclone track and intensity guidance at:

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/aid_public/

If you have any questions, please contact:

Jessica Schauer
NWS Marine, Tropical and Tsunami Services Branch
National Hurricane Center
Miami, FL 33165
Telephone: 305-229-4476
Email: Jessica.Schauer@noaa.gov

or

John Kuhn
NWS Marine, Tropical, and Tsunami Services Branch
NWS Headquarters
Silver spring, MD 20910
Telephone: 301-427-9364
Email: John.F.Kuhn@noaa.gov

National Service Change Notices are online at:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notif.htm

[cycloneye]

This will be gone right?

[wxman57]

If I'm reading that website correctly, there will be no invest guidance issued. I'll be at the National Hurricane Conference all next week and will ask them about it.

[Hurricaneman]

Based on this anything that forms would have to be a tropical cyclone to be in the active storms forum instead of an invest now

The positives
Will cut down on pre tropical cyclone clutter
Won't have useless invest topics for ones that don't form

Negatives
Sometimes invest are something to talk about in a lull

[Kingarabian]

This can no way be thought of as a good thing. A lot can be learned from Invests because they keep everything so tidy. You'll know what models are specifically saying about a tropical disturbance and you can get a floater on SSD to monitor them easily. Invests give us a good way to track tropical disturbances, and help us differentiate between disturbances.

Example:

"A GOM disturbance interacting with ex Invest 91L has organized in recent days and there is a 30% chance of development".

There's nothing wrong with having separate threads for Invests.

[Alyono]

nowhere does it say that invests will no longer be declared

Instead, they have merely said that that particular model product is being discontinued.

The data is still available on the atcf, which is what I use anyways. That is what most use

[Hammy]

Will NRL still track/log the operational data for invests?

[wxman57]

nowhere does it say that invests will no longer be declared

Instead, they have merely said that that particular model product is being discontinued.

The data is still available on the atcf, which is what I use anyways. That is what most use

Right, they'll likely still be declaring invests but not issuing any guidance with BAMs & LBAR (not a bad thing, since those models do so terribly except for in the very deep tropics with uniform flow. There will be models available on their ftp site, I believe.

I will be attending the National Hurricane Conference all next week. I'll ask the NHC folks what's up with invests.

[vbhoutex]

nowhere does it say that invests will no longer be declared

Instead, they have merely said that that particular model product is being discontinued.

The data is still available on the atcf, which is what I use anyways. That is what most use

Right, they'll likely still be declaring invests but not issuing any guidance with BAMs & LBAR (not a bad thing, since those models do so terribly except for in the very deep tropics with uniform flow. There will be models available on their ftp site, I believe.

I will be attending the National Hurricane Conference all next week. I'll ask the NHC folks what's up with invests.

At the National Tropical Weather Conference last week no one with NHC even mentioned anything like the use of Invests being discontinued, except for the part about the use of those particular models being discontinued. I'll be very interested in what you find out this week Wxman57.