2017 CPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Waters in the vacinity of Hawaii remain abnormally high.

[TheStormExpert]

Waters in the vacinity of Hawaii remain abnormally high.

Is this even accurate? It's shows above normal SST's off the Baja California peninsula which I know has below normal SST's.

[Ntxw]

Waters in the vacinity of Hawaii remain abnormally high.

Is this even accurate? It's shows above normal SST's off the Baja California peninsula which I know has below normal SST's.

If you are talking about the same source (satellites) that you are mentioning about cooler anomolies then apples to apples it is accurate if comparing the same data. The same maps have shown warming in the weekly loops. It was cooler at the end of May

[Kingarabian]

[mg]http://i.imgur.com/xAIUd7q.png[/img]

Waters in the vacinity of Hawaii remain abnormally high.

Is this even accurate? It's shows above normal SST's off the Baja California peninsula which I know has below normal SST's.

Buoys have it:

[Kingarabian]

This setup if it persists can spell bad trouble for Hawaii.

[weathaguyry]

I really think that Hawaii will be under the gun this year, the water temps are above normal and the pattern shown above wouldn't be good. I know that the island isn't prepared too well for a hurricane, and anything that passes through would be devastating.

[TheStormExpert]

Unless a storm can somehow survive 70kts of shear I highly doubt Hawaii has much to worry about.

[NDG]

Any Storms coming in from the east will have to stay on a low latitude if they are to affect Hawaii as a hurricane, sub 26 deg C waters just east of Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

That sub tropical jet is always there and it's there every year. Every now and then it lifts North thus allowing a favorable environment. It's all about timing really.

[Kingarabian]

Any Storms coming in from the east will have to stay on a low latitude if they are to affect Hawaii as a hurricane, sub 26 deg C waters just east of Hawaii.

[mg]http://i.imgur.com/4YQBEbI.gif[/img]
[ig]http://i.imgur.com/9aLH1p2.gif[/img]

25C is enough to maintain a hurricane. It's July and I'm sure we'll see 27C waters east of Hawaii by September. But you're right; historically a hurricane coming from the south is the most worriful

That weakness right over Hawaii according to that 500mb analysis is very worrying.

[Kingarabian]

More ACE on the way and we may get out first CPAC basin system. Models are trending towards a non tropical system becoming tropical and the GFS Parallel is showing a cat.4/cat.5 crossing into the WPAC. We also have Fernanda lasting another 10 days. Conditions in the northern central pacific are unusually favorable for development and its still very early.

[Kingarabian]

GFS and now the Euro continue to show what appears to be an ULL working its way down to the surface and becoming a major hurricane.

GFS:


Euro:

[1900hurricane]

GFS and now the Euro continue to show what appears to be an ULL working its way down to the surface and becoming a major hurricane.

GFS:


Euro:

That's Invest 97W out by 160ºE.

[Kingarabian]

GFS and now the Euro continue to show what appears to be an ULL working its way down to the surface and becoming a major hurricane.

GFS:
[img]http://i.imgur.com/DrgmXAK.png[img]

Euro:
[img]http://i.imgur.com/YWojsOv.png[img]

That's Invest 97W out by 160ºE.

Oh okay makes sense since its just east of the CPHC's AOR.