2017 CPAC Season

[cycloneye]

It may be a above normal 2017 season if the +PDO,El Nino and warm ssts in CPAC are present in the next few months.The first name to be used in 2017 is Walaka.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/854813854890590209

[Alyono]

this year looks more favorable for a HI impact than last year did, and last year was beyond favorable

[Kingarabian]

Yeah. Waters are almost if not 26C in the vacinity of Hawaii and it's only April.

Last season the waters were favorable for a Hawaii impact and we had two big threats which came from the EPAC. But other than those there wasn't much. No homebrew.

The main issue last season was the shear being higher than normal @ 130W in thr EPAC extending out to the CPAC due to the La Nina-esque conditions.

So maybe with a warm neutral/El Nino the shear will be normal.

[Yellow Evan]

I don't recall shear being above average west of 130W last year.

[Kingarabian]

I don't recall shear being above average west of 130W last year.

I recall 5 different systems at different times shown by the GFS and the Euro to form in that vacinity and nothing was able to materialize. And the main reason for that was shear being unfavorable.

[Alyono]

I don't recall shear being above average west of 130W last year.

I recall 5 different systems at different times shown by the GFS and the Euro to form in that vacinity and nothing was able to materialize. And the main reason for that was shear being unfavorable.

Madeline did get a last minute shot of shear. However, Lester simply whiffed, missing to the north

What these SSTs are saying though is that we can get a cat 4 or 5 striking from the east if the shear is favorable

[Yellow Evan]

I don't recall shear being above average west of 130W last year.

I recall 5 different systems at different times shown by the GFS and the Euro to form in that vacinity and nothing was able to materialize. And the main reason for that was shear being unfavorable.

That isn't anything abnormal though, and shear wasn't a problem for Darby.

[Kingarabian]

I don't recall shear being above average west of 130W last year.

I recall 5 different systems at different times shown by the GFS and the Euro to form in that vacinity and nothing was able to materialize. And the main reason for that was shear being unfavorable.

That isn't anything abnormal though, and shear wasn't a problem for Darby.

Yeah I'm sure when storms get going they can create favorable shear environments. But models had a hard time with a handful of tropical disturbances, at times showing development, then showing delayed development and then dropping development all together. Tropical disturbances that wouldve been considered "gimmies" in 2014/2015.

[Kingarabian]

The April ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO is not good at all if it pans out.But Pacific looks primed especially the Central area near Hawaii.

[euro6208]

I won't be surprised if we have many CPAC to WPAC crossovers this season looking at that SST anomaly map.

[Kingarabian]

Waters near Hawaii are already at 26.5C-27.0C, meaning they are conducive for a tropical development - and it's only April.



CFS showing lower to normal shear over the western-EPAC and the CPAC (take it with a grain of salt of course).

[Alyono]

Waters near Hawaii are already at 26.5C-27.0C, meaning they are conducive for a tropical development - and it's only April.



CFS showing lower to normal shear over the western-EPAC and the CPAC (take it with a grain of salt of course).

That's far warmer than last year! And last year was beyond warm, so much so that storms from the east easily held together. This year, they will likely intensify on approach to Hawaii from the east. No Iselle tracking over 25C waters, that's for sure. This year, it may be over 27.5C waters

[NDG]

Waters near Hawaii are already at 26.5C-27.0C, meaning they are conducive for a tropical development - and it's only April.

http://i.imgur.com/mXraiIM.png

CFS showing lower to normal shear over the western-EPAC and the CPAC (take it with a grain of salt of course).

http://i.imgur.com/i84PrBb.gif

Not saying that SSTs are not above average but I think the SSTs from the NHC satellite page is a little off, according to area buoys around Hawaii I don't see 27.0C that close to Hawaii. The same error I see here in FL from them.

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/bu ... -xhtml.php

This image might be more in line according to area buoys.

[Kingarabian]

Does the NHC use satellite estimates to guage SSTs?

CDAS showing similar SSTs, though more in line with the bouys you posted above.

[Kingarabian]

Folks, the CPHC (FINALLY) updated their site. Looks a lot better.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/

[Kingarabian]

I'm disappointed. They removed and stopped issuing Satellite Interpretation Messages (Tropical Weather Discussions)...

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/xml/SIMHI.xml

EATON THIS WILL BE THE LAST SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE /SIM/ ISSUED. THE NWS HAS DISCONTINUED THIS PRODUCT. FOR QUESTIONS...PLEASE CONTACT TOM EVANS AT 808-973-5273. THE OFFICIAL CHANGE NOTICE CAN BE FOUND AT...ALL LOWER CASE...HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM

Why would they stop doing this?

[Hurricane Jed]

[quote="cycloneye"]It may be a above normal 2017 season if the +PDO,El Nino and warm ssts in CPAC are present in the next few months.The first name to be used in 2017 is ULIKA.

Ulika was used in 2016. Next name up is Walaka.

[cycloneye]

It may be a above normal 2017 season if the +PDO,El Nino and warm ssts in CPAC are present in the next few months.The first name to be used in 2017 is ULIKA.

Ulika was used in 2016. Next name up is Walaka.

Thank you for the clarification.Has been fixed.

[cycloneye]

Between 5-8 named storms is the forecast from NOAA for CPAC.NOAA releases on Thursday so this is ahead of the oficial release.

 https://twitter.com/NWSHonolulu/status/867479644626452480

[Bocadude85]

Between 5-8 named storms is the forecast from NOAA for CPAC.NOAA releases on Thursday so this is ahead of the oficial release.

 https://twitter.com/NWSHonolulu/status/867479644626452480

So they are expecting a near average to slightly above average CPH Season.