Not seeing any discussion on this area in the Caribbean. Little model support for development of any kind, but NHC says the area is "very persistent".
000
AXNT20 KNHC 171748
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017
<snip>
...
A tropical wave is moving across the southern portion of the
basin. Please refer to the section above for details. A deep-
layer surface trough extends its axis across the western Caribbean
and western Atlantic. A surface trough 21N79W to 14N82W. A
persistent diffluent flow prevails to the east of these troughs
supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms north
of 15N between 71W-79W. This activity has been very persistent
during the past 24 hours over portions of eastern Jamaica, western
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. More rainfall is expected today,
possibly causing flooding and mudslides. Please pay attention to
advisories and bulletins from local meteorology offices and other
governmental agencies. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades
across the far west and far east portions of the basin while fresh
to strong easterlies prevail between 70W- 78W. A similar weather
pattern is expected during the next 24 hours.
...
<snip>
Disturbed Weather in Caribbean 18N75W
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GeneratorPower
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AutoPenalti
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Caribbean 18N75W
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Wed May 17, 2017 2:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Caribbean 18N75W
Has no chance to develop correct?
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Caribbean 18N75W
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Has no chance to develop correct?
Not at the moment, there's just way too much shear for anything to form. However, it's been pretty persistent during the last couple of days bringing around 10" - 20" of rainfall throughout the Carribean.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Wed May 17, 2017 2:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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TheStormExpert
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Caribbean 18N75W
If shear was little to non-existent this would develop.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Caribbean 18N75W
Shear map:
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: Disturbed Weather in Caribbean 18N75W
It didn't develop, but it caused severe flooding in Jamaica, due to persistent torrential rain for three days straight. Have a look: https://youtu.be/XMvkEp9rHXc
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