My daily tropical weather forecasts

[otowntiger]

92l getting killed off by models and now shear. It's toast. On to the next.

[Hurricaneman]

August 19 2017. 1155 pm

Harvey: will regenerate in the western Caribbean and possibly be a hurricane threat to Texas and here is my thoughts for redevelopment

Now 60%
12hrs. 80%
24hrs td Harvey 35mph. 1009 mb
48hrs. Ts Harvey 45mph. 1005mb
72hrs. Ts Harvey. 60mph. 999mb
96hrs. Ts Harvey. 45mph. 1002mb
120hrs Ts Harvey 65mph. 995mb


92L: I feel this is going to develop into a depression or storm by Monday and be a threat to south Florida and up the coast here are my thoughts

Now. 20%
12hrs. 30%
24hrs. 40%
48hrs. 80%
72hrs. Ts Irma 45mph. 1004mb
96hrs. Ts Irma 70mph. 991mb
120hrs.Hurricane Irma. 90mph 975mb

[Hurricaneman]

August 22 2017 1251am

Harvey: I feel this will form a low and keep it across the Yucatán and reemerge at the NW tip of the Yucatán sometime tomorrow and then rapidly intensify into a major hurricane land falling in Houston as the first major since Wilma

Now. 80%
12hrs. 80%
24hrs. Ts Harvey 45mph 1006mb
48hrs. Ts Harvey 70mph 992mb
72hrs. Hurricane Harvey 105mph. 970mb
96hrs. Hurricane Harvey 130mph. 948mb
120hrs Hurricane Harvey 145mph. 935mb landfall Houston\Galveston

92L: looks quite a bit less organized but has to be watched anyway as there still seems to be some vorticity and here's what I think

Now. 0%
12hrs. 10%
24hrs. 20%
48hrs. 40%
72hrs. 60%
96hrs. 90%
120hrs Ts Irma 40mph 1007mb

[Hurricaneman]

August 23 2017 1015pm

Harvey: This could be a significant hurricane between Corpus Christi and Freeport and after that turns into a top 5 flood threat and here's what I think

Now. Ts Harvey. 40mph. 1003mb
12hrs. Ts Harvey. 45mph. 1001mb
24hrs. Ts Harvey. 65mph. 994mb
48hrs. Hurricane Harvey. 100mph. 973mb near Corpus Christi
72hrs. Hurricane Harvey. 75mph. 980mb
96hrs Ts Harvey 60mph 988mb
120hrs Ts Harvey.50mph 992mb reemerging into the GOM

92L: I think this becomes a tropical storm in 96 hrs as it's heading for OBX and is a possible threat to New England just after 120hrs

Now 10%
12hrs. 20%
24hrs. 30%
48hrs. 60%
72hrs. 90%
96hrs. Ts Irma 60mph 996mb
120hrs Hurricane Irma. 75mph 983mb near Montauk

[Hurricaneman]

August 30 2017 135am

Harvey: should make another landfall in the morning but the big story is massive flooding in Texas and Louisiana here are my thoughts

Now. Ts Harvey 50mph. 995mb
12hrs. Ts Harvey 50mph 996mb
24hrs. Ts Harvey 40mph 1000mb
48hrs. Td Harvey 35mph 1004mb
72hrs post tropical

Ptc 10 has no chance of tropical development

93L has a good chance of being Irma the next day or 2

Now. 90%
12hrs. Td11. 35mph. 1008mb
24hrs. Ts Irma. 45mph. 1005mb
48hrs. Ts Irma. 50mph. 1003mb
72hrs. Ts Irma. 65mph. 995mb
96hrs. Hurricane Irma. 75mph. 992mb
120hrs Hurricane Irma. 90mph 980mb

[Hurricaneman]

Restarting these

September 11 2017

Jose: I expect this to loop but after the loop head west to wnw and end up east of the Bahamas but beyond that is anyone's guess

Now: Hurricane Jose 105mph 968mb
12hrs. Hurricane Jose. 100mph. 970mb
24hrs. Hurricane Jose. 100mph. 970mb
48hrs. Hurricane Jose. 105mph. 966mb
72hrs. Hurricane Jose. 115mph. 960mb
96hrs. Hurricane Jose. 120mph. 958mb
120hrs. Hurricane Jose. 130mph. 948mb