My daily tropical weather forecasts
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Hurricaneman
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- Location: central florida
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7281
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts
July 16 2017
GOM: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days
Atlantic MDR: tropical wave one aka 95L is near 47w and seems to be developing as we speak and may become Don in the next day or 2 and here are its chances
12hr. 90%
24hrs. Td5 35mph
48hrs. Ts Don 45mph
72hrs. Ts Don 60mph
96hrs. Ts Don 60mph
120hrs Ts Don 45mph
Another wave around 38w also looks like it has a good chance of development but will run into SAL and probably weaken back into a wave
12hrs. 50%
24hrs. 70%
48hrs. Td6. 35mph
72hrs. Ts Emily 45mph
96hrs. Ts Emily 50mph
120hrs. Ts Emily 40mph
Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no development the next 5 days
Caribbean: see invest 95L
Elsewhere in the Caribbean no development the next 5 days
Eastern Seaboard: no tropical development the next 5 days
Subtropical Atlantic: no tropical development the next 5 days
GOM: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days
Atlantic MDR: tropical wave one aka 95L is near 47w and seems to be developing as we speak and may become Don in the next day or 2 and here are its chances
12hr. 90%
24hrs. Td5 35mph
48hrs. Ts Don 45mph
72hrs. Ts Don 60mph
96hrs. Ts Don 60mph
120hrs Ts Don 45mph
Another wave around 38w also looks like it has a good chance of development but will run into SAL and probably weaken back into a wave
12hrs. 50%
24hrs. 70%
48hrs. Td6. 35mph
72hrs. Ts Emily 45mph
96hrs. Ts Emily 50mph
120hrs. Ts Emily 40mph
Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no development the next 5 days
Caribbean: see invest 95L
Elsewhere in the Caribbean no development the next 5 days
Eastern Seaboard: no tropical development the next 5 days
Subtropical Atlantic: no tropical development the next 5 days
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7281
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts
July 18 2017
Atlantic MDR: invest 96L seems to be getting organized better and might become a tropical cyclone the next day or 2 before hitting dry air from the SAL and here are its chances
12hrs. 50%
24hrs. 75%
48hrs. 80%
72hrs. 50%
96hrs. 30%
120hrs. 10%
Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no development the next 5 days
GOM: no tropical development the next 5 days
Caribbean: Don has entered the Caribbean but may not be a tropical cyclone for long and hers what I think
12hrs. Td Don. 35mph
24hrs. Dissipated
Elsewhere in the Caribbean no development the next 5 days
Eastern Seaboard: no tropical development the next 5 days
Subtropical Atlantic: no tropical development the next 5 days
Atlantic MDR: invest 96L seems to be getting organized better and might become a tropical cyclone the next day or 2 before hitting dry air from the SAL and here are its chances
12hrs. 50%
24hrs. 75%
48hrs. 80%
72hrs. 50%
96hrs. 30%
120hrs. 10%
Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no development the next 5 days
GOM: no tropical development the next 5 days
Caribbean: Don has entered the Caribbean but may not be a tropical cyclone for long and hers what I think
12hrs. Td Don. 35mph
24hrs. Dissipated
Elsewhere in the Caribbean no development the next 5 days
Eastern Seaboard: no tropical development the next 5 days
Subtropical Atlantic: no tropical development the next 5 days
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7281
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
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stormreader
- Category 5
- Posts: 1242
- Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:58 am
Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts
Hurricaneman wrote:July 19 2017
No tropical development the next 5 days
Now that looks like a normal mid July outlook. Been somewhat active lately (for this time of year). But I wouldn't automatically assume that means development around the 1st of August. Forecast is for above average season, but it wouldn't shock me if we had to wait for Aug 10 or so for real development. Don't know, but I don't think the July activity portends storm formation around Aug 1st (necessarily).
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7281
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts
July 20 2017
Atlantic MDR: there's a tropical wave near the CV islands that has a bit of model support and good mid level structure and here are its chances
12hrs. 2%
24hrs. 5%
48hrs. 10%
72hrs. 20%
96hrs. 20%
120hrs 20%
Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin no tropical development the next 5 days
Atlantic MDR: there's a tropical wave near the CV islands that has a bit of model support and good mid level structure and here are its chances
12hrs. 2%
24hrs. 5%
48hrs. 10%
72hrs. 20%
96hrs. 20%
120hrs 20%
Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin no tropical development the next 5 days
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7281
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts
Hurricaneman wrote:July 21 2017
No tropical development the next 5 days
I won't bet on it. MDR looks primed to pump out another surprise to me.
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7281
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts
July 23 2017 102am
Atlantic MDR: there is a tropical wave over west Africa that has some support and here are its chances
12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
48hrs. 0%
72hrs. 0%
96hrs. 0%
120hrs. 10%
Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no development the next 5 days
GOM: no tropical development the next 5 days
Caribbean: no tropical development the next 5 days
Eastern Seaboard: there is a small chance that the disturbance in the GOM and the Bahamas from the ULLs could come to the surface and develop by the end of the week so here are the chances
12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
48hrs. 0%
72hrs. 0%
96hrs. 10%
120hrs. 20%
Elsewhere on the eastern seaboard no development the next 5 days
Subtropical Atlantic: no tropical development the next 5 Days
Atlantic MDR: there is a tropical wave over west Africa that has some support and here are its chances
12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
48hrs. 0%
72hrs. 0%
96hrs. 0%
120hrs. 10%
Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no development the next 5 days
GOM: no tropical development the next 5 days
Caribbean: no tropical development the next 5 days
Eastern Seaboard: there is a small chance that the disturbance in the GOM and the Bahamas from the ULLs could come to the surface and develop by the end of the week so here are the chances
12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
48hrs. 0%
72hrs. 0%
96hrs. 10%
120hrs. 20%
Elsewhere on the eastern seaboard no development the next 5 days
Subtropical Atlantic: no tropical development the next 5 Days
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7281
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts
July 24 2017
GOM: no tropical development the next 5 days
Caribbean: no tropical development the next 5 days
Atlantic MDR: a disturbance has come off of Africa and the models seem to show some development and here are its chances
12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
48hrs. 0%
72hrs. 0%
96hrs. 5%
120hrs. 10%
Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no tropical development the next 5 days
Eastern Seaboard: there seems to be some models showing development from the ULL forming a surface low late in the week and here are its chances
12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
48hrs. 0%
72hrs. 10%
96hrs. 20%
120hrs. 30%
Elsewhere on the eastern seaboard no development the next 5 days
Subtropical Atlantic: no tropical development the next 5 days
GOM: no tropical development the next 5 days
Caribbean: no tropical development the next 5 days
Atlantic MDR: a disturbance has come off of Africa and the models seem to show some development and here are its chances
12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
48hrs. 0%
72hrs. 0%
96hrs. 5%
120hrs. 10%
Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no tropical development the next 5 days
Eastern Seaboard: there seems to be some models showing development from the ULL forming a surface low late in the week and here are its chances
12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
48hrs. 0%
72hrs. 10%
96hrs. 20%
120hrs. 30%
Elsewhere on the eastern seaboard no development the next 5 days
Subtropical Atlantic: no tropical development the next 5 days
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7281
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts
July 26 2017
GOM: no tropical development the next 5 days
Caribbean: no tropical development the next 5 days
Atlantic MDR: tropical wave near the CV islands in combination with a wave in west Africa have a chance at development early next week and here are its chances
12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
48hrs. 0%
72hrs. 10%
96hrs. 20%
120hrs. 40%
Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no development the next 5 days
Eastern seaboard: no tropical development the next 5 days
Subtropical Atlantic: no tropical development the next 5 days
GOM: no tropical development the next 5 days
Caribbean: no tropical development the next 5 days
Atlantic MDR: tropical wave near the CV islands in combination with a wave in west Africa have a chance at development early next week and here are its chances
12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
48hrs. 0%
72hrs. 10%
96hrs. 20%
120hrs. 40%
Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no development the next 5 days
Eastern seaboard: no tropical development the next 5 days
Subtropical Atlantic: no tropical development the next 5 days
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts
There is a small surface wave just north along the coast of Hispaniola.
Its tiny but looks like it has a pressure gradient.
Its tiny but looks like it has a pressure gradient.
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7281
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts
July 30 2017
GOM: an area of low pressure 250miles west of Tampa is showing signs of being a tropical cyclone and here are its chances
Now. 80%
12hrs. Emily 45mph 1005mb
24hrs. Emily 50mph. 1003mb
48hrs. Emily.50mph. 1003mb landfall Tampa
72hrs. Emily 50mph. 1003mb
96hrs. Emily. 60mph. 998mb
120hrs extratropical
Elsewhere in the GOM no development the next 5 days
Atlantic MDR: there is a wave near the CV islands where there could be some development as it heads west and here are its chances
Now. 0%
12hrs. 5%
24hrs. 10%
48hrs. 20%
72hrs. 30%
96hrs. 30%
120hrs 30%
Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no development the next 5days
Caribbean: no tropical development the next 5 days
Eastern Seaboard: see Emily
Subtropical Atlantic: see Emily
GOM: an area of low pressure 250miles west of Tampa is showing signs of being a tropical cyclone and here are its chances
Now. 80%
12hrs. Emily 45mph 1005mb
24hrs. Emily 50mph. 1003mb
48hrs. Emily.50mph. 1003mb landfall Tampa
72hrs. Emily 50mph. 1003mb
96hrs. Emily. 60mph. 998mb
120hrs extratropical
Elsewhere in the GOM no development the next 5 days
Atlantic MDR: there is a wave near the CV islands where there could be some development as it heads west and here are its chances
Now. 0%
12hrs. 5%
24hrs. 10%
48hrs. 20%
72hrs. 30%
96hrs. 30%
120hrs 30%
Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no development the next 5days
Caribbean: no tropical development the next 5 days
Eastern Seaboard: see Emily
Subtropical Atlantic: see Emily
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7281
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts
August 2 2017
GOM: no tropical development the next 5 days
Caribbean: no tropical development the next 5 days
Atlantic MDR: tropical wave moving off of Africa has a good chance at development and here are its chances
Now. 0%
12hrs. 5%
24hrs. 20%
48hrs. 60%
72hrs. 90%
96hrs. Ts Franklin 45mph. 1005mb
120hrs. Ts Franklin 65mph. 995mb
Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no development the next 5 days
Eastern Seaboard: no tropical development the next 5 days
Subtropical Atlantic: no tropical development the next 5 days
GOM: no tropical development the next 5 days
Caribbean: no tropical development the next 5 days
Atlantic MDR: tropical wave moving off of Africa has a good chance at development and here are its chances
Now. 0%
12hrs. 5%
24hrs. 20%
48hrs. 60%
72hrs. 90%
96hrs. Ts Franklin 45mph. 1005mb
120hrs. Ts Franklin 65mph. 995mb
Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no development the next 5 days
Eastern Seaboard: no tropical development the next 5 days
Subtropical Atlantic: no tropical development the next 5 days
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7281
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts
August 9 2017
GOM: hurricane Franklin is going to make landfall in the next few hours in Mexico as a 80 to 85 mph hurricane and there will be wind damage and flooding
Elsewhere in the GOM: a small area of low pressure off the SE Florida coast is getting organized and expected to imo possibly develop in the eastern GOM and here are its chances
Now. 10%
12hrs. 20%
24hrs. 30%
48hrs. 30%
72hrs. 40%
96hrs. 40%
120hrs. 40%
Caribbean: no tropical development the next 5 days
Atlantic MDR: area of low pressure 99L looks good for development the next day or so and here are its chances
Now. 20%
12hrs. 60%
24hrs. 80%
48hrs. TD8 35mph. 1007mb
72hrs. Ts Gert 50mph. 1000mb
96hrs. Ts Gert 70mph. 990mb
120hrs hurricane Gert 90mph 972mb
Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no development the next 5 days
Eastern Seaboard: see 99L
Subtropical Atlantic: see 99L
GOM: hurricane Franklin is going to make landfall in the next few hours in Mexico as a 80 to 85 mph hurricane and there will be wind damage and flooding
Elsewhere in the GOM: a small area of low pressure off the SE Florida coast is getting organized and expected to imo possibly develop in the eastern GOM and here are its chances
Now. 10%
12hrs. 20%
24hrs. 30%
48hrs. 30%
72hrs. 40%
96hrs. 40%
120hrs. 40%
Caribbean: no tropical development the next 5 days
Atlantic MDR: area of low pressure 99L looks good for development the next day or so and here are its chances
Now. 20%
12hrs. 60%
24hrs. 80%
48hrs. TD8 35mph. 1007mb
72hrs. Ts Gert 50mph. 1000mb
96hrs. Ts Gert 70mph. 990mb
120hrs hurricane Gert 90mph 972mb
Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no development the next 5 days
Eastern Seaboard: see 99L
Subtropical Atlantic: see 99L
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weathaguyry
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- Posts: 1272
- Age: 20
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts
Hurricaneman wrote:August 9 2017
GOM: hurricane Franklin is going to make landfall in the next few hours in Mexico as a 80 to 85 mph hurricane and there will be wind damage and flooding
Elsewhere in the GOM: a small area of low pressure off the SE Florida coast is getting organized and expected to imo possibly develop in the eastern GOM and here are its chances
Now. 10%
12hrs. 20%
24hrs. 30%
48hrs. 30%
72hrs. 40%
96hrs. 40%
120hrs. 40%
Caribbean: no tropical development the next 5 days
Atlantic MDR: area of low pressure 99L looks good for development the next day or so and here are its chances
Now. 20%
12hrs. 60%
24hrs. 80%
48hrs. TD8 35mph. 1007mb
72hrs. Ts Gert 50mph. 1000mb
96hrs. Ts Gert 70mph. 990mb
120hrs hurricane Gert 90mph 972mb
Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no development the next 5 days
Eastern Seaboard: see 99L
Subtropical Atlantic: see 99L
Do you see 99L/ Future Gert affecting the East Coast, or do you think it will recurve safely away from the coast?
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7281
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts
Just off shore but maybe a scrape it all depends on the trough and ridge positioning
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7281
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts
August 16 2017
Areas of interest
Gert: I'm expecting this to strengthen a bit more and here is what I feel is going to happen
Now 100mph. 972mb
12hrs. 100mph 970mb
24hrs. 105mph 968mb
48hrs. 110mph.962mb
72hrs. 100mph 972mb
96hrs. 90mph. 972mb
120hrs 70mph. 980mb subtropical
Invest 91L: I expect this to become a tropical storm before the islands and the tutt but could regenerate after 5days
Now. 40%
12hrs 50%
24hrs 60%
48hrs 90%
72hrs Ts Irma 50mph. 1005mb
96hrs post tropical
92L: should become a tropical storm before hitting the tutt but could regenerate after 96 hrs
now: 40%
12hrs 50%
24hrs 70%
48hrs Ts Harvey 45mph 1006mb
72hrs td Harvey 35mph. 1009mb
96hrs post tropical
120hrs Ts Harvey 45mph 1005mb
Wave near Africa: should become Jose in 4 days
Now 5%
12hrs 10%
24hrs 20%
48hrs 40%
72hrs 70%
96hrs Ts Jose 40mph 1007mb
120hrs Ts Jose 60mph 999mb
Areas of interest
Gert: I'm expecting this to strengthen a bit more and here is what I feel is going to happen
Now 100mph. 972mb
12hrs. 100mph 970mb
24hrs. 105mph 968mb
48hrs. 110mph.962mb
72hrs. 100mph 972mb
96hrs. 90mph. 972mb
120hrs 70mph. 980mb subtropical
Invest 91L: I expect this to become a tropical storm before the islands and the tutt but could regenerate after 5days
Now. 40%
12hrs 50%
24hrs 60%
48hrs 90%
72hrs Ts Irma 50mph. 1005mb
96hrs post tropical
92L: should become a tropical storm before hitting the tutt but could regenerate after 96 hrs
now: 40%
12hrs 50%
24hrs 70%
48hrs Ts Harvey 45mph 1006mb
72hrs td Harvey 35mph. 1009mb
96hrs post tropical
120hrs Ts Harvey 45mph 1005mb
Wave near Africa: should become Jose in 4 days
Now 5%
12hrs 10%
24hrs 20%
48hrs 40%
72hrs 70%
96hrs Ts Jose 40mph 1007mb
120hrs Ts Jose 60mph 999mb
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7281
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts
Note I could be too conservative on Harvey and too bullish on Jose
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7281
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts
August 17 2017
Update
PTC9 has formed east of the lesser Antilles and I do think this has a good chance of being Hurricane Harvey in the western Caribbean and here's what I think
Now PTC9. 35mph. 1008mb
12hrs. Ts Harvey 45mph. 1004mb
24hrs. Ts Harvey 50mph. 1002mb
48hrs. Ts Harvey 65mph. 995mb
72hrs. Ts Harvey 70mph. 992mb
96hrs. Hurricane Harvey 85mph 980mb
120hrs. Hurricane Harvey 100mph 972mb
92L: might not have as bad a shear environment as I first thought but might not become a tropical cyclone until around 48 hrs but it's off to the races after that so Florida will have to keep close tabs on this as I believe it will be a hurricane by then and here's my thoughts
Now. 50%
12hrs. 60%
24hrs. 60%
48hrs. 80%
72hrs. Ts Irma. 45mph 1002mb
96hrs. Ts Irma. 70mph. 992mb
120hrs. Hurricane Irma. 90mph. 978mb
Wave near CV islands: not seeing much coming from this and here are its chances
Now. 0%
12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
48hrs. 10%
72hrs. 20%
96hrs. 20%
120hrs. 40%
Update
PTC9 has formed east of the lesser Antilles and I do think this has a good chance of being Hurricane Harvey in the western Caribbean and here's what I think
Now PTC9. 35mph. 1008mb
12hrs. Ts Harvey 45mph. 1004mb
24hrs. Ts Harvey 50mph. 1002mb
48hrs. Ts Harvey 65mph. 995mb
72hrs. Ts Harvey 70mph. 992mb
96hrs. Hurricane Harvey 85mph 980mb
120hrs. Hurricane Harvey 100mph 972mb
92L: might not have as bad a shear environment as I first thought but might not become a tropical cyclone until around 48 hrs but it's off to the races after that so Florida will have to keep close tabs on this as I believe it will be a hurricane by then and here's my thoughts
Now. 50%
12hrs. 60%
24hrs. 60%
48hrs. 80%
72hrs. Ts Irma. 45mph 1002mb
96hrs. Ts Irma. 70mph. 992mb
120hrs. Hurricane Irma. 90mph. 978mb
Wave near CV islands: not seeing much coming from this and here are its chances
Now. 0%
12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
48hrs. 10%
72hrs. 20%
96hrs. 20%
120hrs. 40%
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