My daily tropical weather forecasts

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Hurricaneman
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My daily tropical weather forecasts

#1 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:43 pm

These forecasts are not official please refer to the NHC for official forecasts

June 1 2017

GOM
There is an area of disturbed weather in the western GOM and BOC from a td2 E and while not much development will happen in the near term there may be something beyond 48 hrs

Chances of development
24 hrs. 0%
48hrs 10%
72hrs 50%
96hrs 70%
120 hrs 70%

Tropical Atlantic
There are several tropical waves transversing the Atlantic MDR but no development is expected but a lot of rain for northern South America

Subtropical Atlantic
No tropical development expected

Eastern seaboard
No development expected

Next update tomorrow
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts

#2 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jun 02, 2017 4:29 pm

June 2nd 2017

GOM: a lot of disturbed weather from Mexico to Florida and while shear is somewhat high a subtropical cyclone can't be ruled out so we'll watch as things unfold

Chance of development
24hrs 20%
48hrs 40%
72hrs 40%
96hrs 40%
120hrs 40%

Tropical Atlantic MDR: no chance of development the next 5 days

Eastern Seaboard: no chance of development for the next 5 days

Subtropical Atlantic: no chance of development the next 5 days
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts

#3 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jun 03, 2017 10:56 pm

June 3 2017

GOM: an area of low pressure has formed in the southwestern GOM but strong shear is effecting this system
Chances of development
24hrs 10%
48hrs 10%
72hrs 10%
96hrs 10%
120hrs 10%

Atlantic MDR: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days

Subtropical Atlantic: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days

Eastern seaboard: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days

Caribbean: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts

#4 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:05 pm

My computer has been down the last few days so sorry for no forecast but will continue as of now

June 7 2017

GOM: an area of low pressure is just south of the big bend of Florida but no tropical development is expected as it heads NE across Florida and South Georgia as it heads up the coast

Atlantic MDR: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days

Eastern Seaboard: current low over Florida is expected to move up the coast with no tropical development

Caribbean: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days

Subtropical Atlantic: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts

#5 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:22 pm

June 8 2017

GOM: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days

Atlantic MDR: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days

Caribbean: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days

Eastern Seaboard: a non tropical area of low pressure off the Carolina coast is causing rains and wind but no chance of tropical development

Subtropical Atlantic: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts

#6 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:59 pm

June 9 2017

All areas of the Atlantic basin have no chance of tropical development the next 5 days

Next update tomorrow
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts

#7 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jun 10, 2017 10:43 pm

June 10 2017

GOM: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days

Caribbean: while I'm not expecting tropical development the next 5 days the models are picking up something around 7+ days

Atlantic MDR: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days

Eastern seaboard: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days

Subtropical Atlantic: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts

#8 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jun 12, 2017 10:26 pm

June 12 2017

GOM: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days

Caribbean: there might be a small chance of tropical development by Friday sometime and chances for development

12hr 0%
24hr 0%
48hr 0%
72hr 0%
96hr 0%
120hr 10%

Atlantic MDR: there might be a small chance of development the next 5 days if the Euro is right but the GFS shows a sharp wave around that time period so I won't rule it out

Chances of development
12hrs 0%
24hrs 0%
48hrs 0%
72hrs 0%
96hrs 2%
120hrs 5%

Eastern seaboard: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days

Subtropical Atlantic: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts

#9 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jun 13, 2017 10:28 pm

June 13 2017

GOM: there's a possibility beyond 5 days of something coming into the BOC from the western Caribbean so no tropical development for at least 5 days

Atlantic MDR: a wave that came off of Africa has a really good signature on satellite and models do indeed try to develop this around 72hrs and wouldn't rule out a tropical storm at 5 days so here are the chances

12hrs 0%
24hrs. 2%
48hrs 10%
72hrs. 25%
96hrs 30%
120hrs 40%

Caribbean: a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is modeled to combine with a monsoon gyre in the Western Caribbean and form a low around 96hrs and here are its chances for development

12hrs 0%
24hrs. 0%
48hrs. 0%
72hrs. 5%
96hrs. 20%
120hrs 50%

Eastern Seaboard: no chance of tropical development in the next 5 days

Subtropical Atlantic: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts

#10 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jun 14, 2017 5:42 pm

June 14 2017

GOM: an area of low pressure may form in the western Caribbean may enter the BOC in 5 days but that's something that needs to be monitored and here at the chances of development

12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
48hrs. 0%
72hrs. 5%
96hrs. 10%
120hrs. 40%

Caribbean: see GOM

Atlantic MDR: a strong tropical wave with low pressure is about 250 miles SSW of the CV islands and has a decent chance of development in 72hrs and might even become a tropical storm within 5 days so here are the chances for development

12hrs 5%
24hrs. 10%
48hrs. 20%
72hrs. 40%
96hrs. 50%
120hrs 70%

Eastern Seaboard: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days

Subtropical Atlantic: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts

#11 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:02 pm

June 16 2017

GOM: could be something that comes up into the GOM from the western Caribbean that has a good chance to become a tropical storm late next week so here are the chances

12hrs. 10%
24hrs. 20%
48hrs. 45%
72hrs. 80%
96hrs. Td
120hrs. Ts 45mph

Atlantic MDR: there's a tropical wave at 45w with a small area of convection and low pressure so here are the chances of development of that system

12hrs. 10%
24hrs. 10%
48hrs. 10%
72hrs. 10%
96hrs. 10%
120hrs. 10%

92L is the middle wave with a distinct area of low pressure around 1009mb and this could be a real threat to the areas around Trinidad and Tobago as a strong tropical storm and here are the chances of development and a new thing I'll add with wind speeds as a tropical cyclone

12hrs. 70%
24hrs. 90%
48hrs. Ts 40mph
72hrs. Ts 65mph
96hrs. Ts 65mph
120hrs ts 60mph

And a tropical wave behind 92L which also has a good signature that needs to be watched for tropical development within 5 days and here are its chances

12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
48hrs. 0%
72hrs. 20%
96hrs. 20%
120hrs 20%

Caribbean: see GOM

Eastern seaboard: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days

Subtropical Atlantic: no chance of tropical development the next 5 days
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts

#12 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:43 pm

June 20 2017

GOM: Cindy is causing quite a bit of heavy rain and windy conditions along in the Florida panhandle, Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana and NE Texas while landfall should occur between Beaumont and Galveston sometime Thursday as a strong tropical storm and here is what I think with Cindy

Now. 60mph. 997mb
12hrs. 65mph. 995mb
24hrs. 65mph. 994mb
48hrs. 70mph. 990mb
72hrs. 40mph. 1002mb
96hrs. 30mph. 1005mb
120hrs dissipated

Elsewhere in the GOM no development the next 5 days

Caribbean: remains of Bret are transversing towards the ABC islands but there's maybe a small chance in a few days of regeneration but possibly in the EPAC so I'll give my chances for redevelopment

12hrs. 2%
24hrs. 5%
48hrs. 10%
72hrs. 10%
96hrs. 0%
120hrs 0%

Elsewhere in the Caribbean no development the next 5 days

Atlantic MDR: a tropical wave just came off of Africa and it hasn't gone poof so there may be a small chance of development around 3 days so here are its chances

12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
48hrs. 2%
72hrs. 10%
96hrs. 10%
120hrs. 10%

Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no development the next 5 days

Eastern Seaboard: no development the next 5 days

Subtropical Atlantic: no development the next 5 days
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts

#13 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:46 pm

June 23 2017

GOM: no tropical development the next 5 days

Caribbean: no tropical development the next 5 days

Atlantic MDR: there's a tropical wave around 50 w with convection and a low so I do see a small possibility for development and here are its chances

12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 2%
48hrs. 10%
72hrs. 10%
96hrs. 10%
120hrs. 10%

Elsewhere in th Atlantic MDR no tropical development the next 5 days

Eastern seaboard: no tropical development the next 5 days

Subtropical Atlantic: no tropical development the next 5 days
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts

#14 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jul 01, 2017 10:39 pm

Sorry for no forecast the last week, it's been a busy week for me and without further ado

July 1 2017

GOM: no tropical development the next 5 days

Atlantic MDR: a tropical wave is approaching the lesser Antilles but has no chance of development the next 5 days but of possibly more concern may be a tropical wave near the Cape Verde islands which I do believe does have some chance of development the next 5 days and here are the chances

12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
48hrs. 0%
72hrs. 10%
96hrs. 20%
120hrs. 30%

Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no development the next 5 days

Caribbean: no tropical development for the next 5 days

Eastern Seaboard: no tropical development the next 5 days

Subtropical Atlantic: no tropical development the next 5 days
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts

#15 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 03, 2017 10:33 pm

July 3 2017

GOM: no tropical development the next 5 days

Caribbean: no tropical development the next 5 days but watching 94L

Atlantic MDR: 94L has developed in the eastern Atlantic and will need to be watched at around 24 hrs for tropical development and has some potential to be a high end tropical storm before hitting the TUTT and weakening some here is what I think of 94L

12hrs. 70%
24hrs. Td 35mph
48hrs. Ts Don 45mph
72hrs. Ts Don 60mph
96hrs. Hurricane Don 75mph
120hrs Ts Don 65mph

Elsewhere in the Atlantic MDR no tropical development the next 5 days

Eastern Seaboard: no tropical development the next 5 days

Subtropical Atlantic: no tropical development the next 5 days
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts

#16 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:17 pm

Waiting for your next forecast as things look to heat up.
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts

#17 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jul 07, 2017 2:30 pm

Will be tonight
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts

#18 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jul 07, 2017 9:40 pm

July 7 2017

GOM: there's an area of low pressure in the very SW part of the BOC that is giving off convection but is too sheared and close to land to develop so no development in the GOM the next 5 days

Atlantic MDR: remains of td4 are popping periodic convection and may need to be watched beyond 48hrs for regeneration and here are its chances

12hrs. 10%
24hrs. 10%
48hrs. 10%
72hrs. 30%
96hrs. 40%
120hrs 50%

Also in the MDR is a tropical wave about to come off of Africa which the models seem to develop within the next 5 days and here are the chances

12hrs. 0%
24hrs. 0%
48hrs. 5%
72hrs. 10%
96hrs. 30%
120hrs.50%

Caribbean: no tropical development the next 5 days

Eastern Seaboard: see ex td4 write up

Subtropical Atlantic: no tropical development the next 5 days
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts

#19 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:38 pm

July 10 2017

GOM: ex td 4 is expected to enter the GOM in 72 to 96 hrs and may develop into Don before going into the GOM and here are its chances

12hrs. 40%
24hrs. 60%
48hrs. 80%
72hrs. Ts Don 40mph landfall Melbourne
96hrs. Ts Don 65mph
120hrs Hurricane Don 85mph landfall New Orleans

Elsewhere in the GOM no development the next 5 days

Caribbean: no development the next 5 days

Atlantic MDR: a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic which had the GFS on its side has dropped development so no development in the Atlantic MDR the next 5 days

Eastern Seaboard: no chance of development the next 5 days

Subtropical Atlantic: see ex td 4
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Re: My daily tropical weather forecasts

#20 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:45 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:July 10 2017

GOM: ex td 4 is expected to enter the GOM in 72 to 96 hrs and may develop into Don before going into the GOM and here are its chances

12hrs. 40%
24hrs. 60%
48hrs. 80%
72hrs. Ts Don 40mph landfall Melbourne
96hrs. Ts Don 65mph
120hrs Hurricane Don 85mph landfall New Orleans

Elsewhere in the GOM no development the next 5 days

Caribbean: no development the next 5 days

Atlantic MDR: a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic which had the GFS on its side has dropped development so no development in the Atlantic MDR the next 5 days

Eastern Seaboard: no chance of development the next 5 days

Subtropical Atlantic: see ex td 4


That would be an impressive storm if that were to pan out! Thanks for the daily updates :D
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