Northern Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

[gatorcane]

Shear looks way too strong but should bring a good amount of rainfall to some folks along the Gulf coast and Florida.

[Stormcenter]

Maybe starting to see hint of a weak spin in the Western Gulf east of Mexico.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[tarheelprogrammer]

It is actually spinning quite nicely already, but it is getting ready to meet the buzz saw. May have a brief chance to get to TD, but one thing I do know about TCs is that they struggle with shear.

[wxman22]

From the 8:02pm EDT Tropical Weather Discussion:

Expect a surface low to form over the Bay of Campeche Saturday, then move NW towards
southern Texas Sunday.

Sorry, didn't see this thread before posting in the Global Model Thread.

The model thread shows this going to Florida, why did they say it would move towards S. Tex?

The 12z GFS , NAM, and Canadian models does take a weak low towards the Texas coast fwiw.

[lrak]

From the 8:02pm EDT Tropical Weather Discussion:

Expect a surface low to form over the Bay of Campeche Saturday, then move NW towards
southern Texas Sunday.

Sorry, didn't see this thread before posting in the Global Model Thread.

The model thread shows this going to Florida, why did they say it would move towards S. Tex?

The 12z GFS , NAM, and Canadian models does take a weak low towards the Texas coast fwiw.

Oh, ok thank you.

[wxman57]

The 12z GFS , NAM, and Canadian models does take a weak low towards the Texas coast fwiw.

Right into the jet core.

[lrak]

So no surf Mr. wxman57?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Doubt we'll see much (if anything) from this disturbance. Good rain for FL though. We badly need it.

[weathaguyry]

If I were the NHC I would take out the yellow marker for the 8PM TWO

[boca]

Looks like some pretty strong thunderstorms off the Yucatán right now,definitely some energy down there I'm keeping my eye on it

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/870965707583913984

[tarheelprogrammer]

There seems to be a LLC in the B.O.C. It looks like storms are firing over it. Am I wrong?

[gatorcane]

Nice spin for sure...invest-worthy to me but shear is strong across the Gulf:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[tarheelprogrammer]

Nice spin for sure...invest-worthy to me but shear is strong across the Gulf:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Agreed. However, what is the ECMWF seeing to develop this? Does it lighten shear a little?

[RL3AO]

I believe if something is a 0%/10% in the 5-day genesis forecast, that the NHC won't put it in the TWO. It's possible that they're tracking it but we don't know it yet.

[srainhoutx]

Surface analysis suggests a weak and highly sheared surface low has developed East of Veracruz and North of Tabasco. There is also a surface trough extending North of the low into South Texas and along the Middle and Upper Texas Coast. Those trough suggest the boundary and advancement of PW's near or slightly above 2.2 inches. Just a rainmaker and possibly some higher surf along the Texas and Louisiana Coasts, but no development expected at this time.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

To me it seemed that Ex-Beatriz still had a well-defined low level circulation yesterday. It is possible that this is the same low (so Ex-Beatriz crossed over Mexico without dissipation)?

[lrak]

I've never seen this happen before if it did. Nice loop

[NDG]

To me it seemed that Ex-Beatriz still had a well-defined low level circulation yesterday. It is possible that this is the same low (so Ex-Beatriz crossed over Mexico without dissipation)?

Is not the same surface but it is the same mid level vorticity from Beatriz that tracked across MX.

[cycloneye]

Shear is very high for anything to develop.