Area of disturbed weather over the Gulf of Mexico

[Nimbus]

Looks like the tail end of the front has stalled near the Yucatan, could get a surface low if the shear moderates.

[TexWx]

Looks like the tail end of the front has stalled near the Yucatan, could get a surface low if the shear moderates.

Yep.

[lrak]

It looks like the GOM is starting up again with disturbed weather and it looks kinda fishy. Is the shear too high for anything to develop if the storms persist? I missed the last swell due my back (old man) and hoping for another chance next week.

Thanks

[northjaxpro]

Looking at visible satellite imagery there does appear to be a broad , very weak circulation about a couple hundred miles west-northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Definitely something to monitor, and I have not taken time yet to check the latest shear analysis today, but if shear is slackening a bit, and convection can increase a bit in that area, this system at the tail end of the trough may have a shot. Time will tell of course.

[bamajammer4eva]

Latest Shear

[northjaxpro]

Thanks Bama for posting. Shear still too strong over the GOM at this time. However, I just peeked a bit at the models and upper conditions could become more conducive for development in the BOC, Southern GOM. or NW Caribbean, looking beyond the next seven days .

[Steve]

Looks like from the surface plots that the surface trough is across the Central Gulf.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

My bet is a piece peels off of that and heads toward the coast (probably higher rain chances between Galveston and Panama City). A lot of times the detached moisture is in the form of thick clouds, but sometimes the rain will hold together. This is interrupting the flow, and you can see trade winds and what looks to be a mid level high nosing into the NW Caribbean and Southern Gulf on satellite. Look for generally higher chances of rainfall all along the Gulf with the instability. The piling up of surface energy east of where the current surface trough is (probably more toward Nicaragua or Honduras) should start happening mid week. Then it's what intersects with that monsoonal gyre and where as to potential blowups - be that consolidation in the East Pac, in the BofC or off the Central American coast. It's going to be an interesting week for early in the season.