Possible development in Western Caribbean - (Is INVEST 93L)

[psyclone]

my gut instinct is the western solution too. i'm just content to have something of interest to watch this early in the season.

[ronjon]

00z GFS para doubles down on Keaton Beach Florida with a 991 mb cane on Tuesday morning.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017061700&fh=84

[TheAustinMan]

UKMET 00z has the system forming in the Bay of Campeche/Western Gulf of Mexico in four days and then gradually moving north and gliding along the Texas coast before moving inland south of Houston - pressure is 997mb at that point.

[stormlover2013]

How do we get to see the ukmet

[Steve]

CMC landfalls around 106 hours showing 995mb Navarre/Ft Walton so Santa Rosa and Okaloosa Counties. That would be Tuesday. CMC has mostly been within 4 counties the last 3 days or so. That's pretty consistent whether it ends up right or wrong.

[northjaxpro]

Yes the models are pretty split right now with the GFS and CMC consistently showing Eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Euro and the UK showing the Western Gulf of Mexico.

We just have to get a Low Pressure area initialized for the models to latch.onto and hopefully then we will get more unison from the models.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro drops the EPAC system but still keeps the storm weak. Landfall further south into Central Mexico.

12z Euro Parallel keeps the EPAC system, but similar to the 00z Euro.

[bamajammer4eva]

00z Euro drops the EPAC system but still keeps the storm weak. Landfall further south into Central Mexico.

12z Euro Parallel keeps the EPAC system, but similar to the 00z Euro.

Looks like it's Euro vs the rest of the world and as usual when in doubt go Euro

[Alyono]

00z Euro drops the EPAC system but still keeps the storm weak. Landfall further south into Central Mexico.

12z Euro Parallel keeps the EPAC system, but similar to the 00z Euro.

most of the model runs with a strong storm have shown baroclinic enhancement in the east Gulf. Few runs to the west Gulf, aside from the most recent UKMET or a couple of EC parallel runs, have shown much intensification. Not entirely sure I buy that unless we have strong shear in the WGOM

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro drops the EPAC system but still keeps the storm weak. Landfall further south into Central Mexico.

12z Euro Parallel keeps the EPAC system, but similar to the 00z Euro.

most of the model runs with a strong storm have shown baroclinic enhancement in the east Gulf. Few runs to the west Gulf, aside from the most recent UKMET or a couple of EC parallel runs, have shown much intensification. Not entirely sure I buy that unless we have strong shear in the WGOM

Even when the GFS was showing a WGOM/BOC solution it kept it rather weak, compared to the strengthening trend due to the N/NE solution. So I think models are picking up on conditions in the WGOM/BOC that are not favorable.

[paintplaye]

Up to 70%

2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
cloudiness and showers over most of Honduras and the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual
development of this large disturbance while it moves slowly
northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into
the south-central Gulf of Mexico early next week. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are likely to spread over portions of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Alyono]

Parallel MU now has a hurricane striking Florida next Tuesday

[Kingarabian]

Parallel MU now has a hurricane striking Florida next Tuesday

Yeah, and 06z GFS coming in stronger, same landfall point looks like. Would be quite the coup if the GFS pulls this one off.

[BobHarlem]

Parallel MU now has a hurricane striking Florida next Tuesday

3 days away and this much spread between the GFS/Euro is nuts. If this winds up being right there won't be much prep time.

[srainhoutx]

An artifact of the GFS solutions is a cool front dropping South to near the Central/NE Gulf Coast. The Western camp of the ECMWF and UKMET suggest that cool front hangs up over Tennessee Valley Region.

The overnight guidance is split between two camps regarding where the NW Caribbean Tropical Disturbance may eventually track. The ECMWF suggests a broad weak system moving into Mexico near or just N of Tampico while the UKMet is a bit stronger with the disturbance moving along the Texas Coast an inland very close to the Upper Texas Coast.

The second camp of the GFS, GFS Parallel and the Canadian move the disturbance NE into Alabama/Western Florida.

There continues to be tremendous uncertainty regarding the eventual track as well as the shear axis/cool cored upper trough expected to meander West from the Central Gulf Coast toward the NW Gulf early next week. Typically we see heavier showers and thunderstorms just to the East of these Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs which leads to forecasting complications. Other issues such as shortwave activity dropping South out of the Central Plains and a flattening SW Heat Ridge next week with approaching upper air disturbances arriving across the Pacific NW further complicates what our sensible weather may hold.

A Reconnaissance Aircraft is scheduled to investigate the Tropical Disturbance on Monday. My hunch is we may see an INVEST designated later today as the Overnight Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Genesis Outlook has increased to a 100% chance of TC Genesis during the next 48 to 72 hours.

[South Texas Storms]

6z GFS and Parallel GFS now are showing the first signs of increased moisture and a possible tropical depression moving into Texas late next week.

[cycloneye]

A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
cloudiness and showers over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
adjacent land areas. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual
development of this large disturbance while it moves slowly
northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend, and a
tropical cyclone could form early next week over the southern or
central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains are
likely to spread over portions of Central America, the Yucatan
Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[NDG]

00z Euro drops the EPAC system but still keeps the storm weak. Landfall further south into Central Mexico.

12z Euro Parallel keeps the EPAC system, but similar to the 00z Euro.

0z Euro does not have it making landfall in central MX, it keeps the energy offshore and then has it going up the coast of MX just south of Brownsville, it paints a very wet picture for the whole TX coast at the end of next week.

[tropicwatch]

With a broad circulation becoming more evident, I would think we would see an invest number pretty soon.
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-84&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=10&zoom=2

[NDG]

First visible goes 16 satellite loop and surface reports indicate that the broad surface circulation is in the BOH approximately where I placed the L. IMO.
Buoys in the NW continue to show falling pressures this morning compared to 24 hrs ago.