Possible development in Western Caribbean - (Is INVEST 93L)

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS Para still has it in for Panama City Tuesday evening, and still has something else starting in the BOC around the same time as "landfall".

[Steve]

GFS showing 1003mb and just off the Chandeleur Islands and either heading for the MS Coast or will hook one way or the other. No consistency to the GFS again, so King A, it can't score a coup. It has done Mexico and Florida and points in between and even not developed in the span of 3 days.

CMC out to 48h at 1001mb still NE of Yucatán. If it continues toward NW FL that's 4 days of almost all runs ending between Navarre and Apalachicola.

GFS adds Alabama to landfalls. It stalls out off S Al and then moves in weakening

[Steve]

Finally CMC hits Mobile County, AL at 994mb 96 hours. It develops the ejected eastern piece and moves toward Mouth of MS before heading up. It's now been within the range of 7 counties since Tuesday.

[Ivanhater]

Big swing in models over the last 24 hours...Odds seem to be increasing on an impact along the Northern Gulf Coast

[cycloneye]

First mission on Sunday afternoon.

Code: Select all

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (NW CARIBBEAN)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 18/2000Z                    A. 19/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST          B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
       C. 18/1730Z                    C. 19/0945Z
       D. 20.0N 86.5W                 D. 22.0N 87.5W
       E. 18/1930Z TO 18/2330Z        E. 19/1100Z TO 19/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT            F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF ABOVE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
          A THREAT.

[Alyono]

UKMET text says no development now...

[South Texas Storms]

UKMET text says no development now...

You have a link for it? Mine doesn't work anymore.

[TheAustinMan]

UKMET text says no development now...

You have a link for it? Mine doesn't work anymore.

Here's the UKMET intensity guidance (including new modeled storms): http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtnt82.egrr..txt

[RL3AO]

I'm really surprised this hasn't been invested yet. It's 20/70 with recon scheduled.

[South Texas Storms]

UKMET text says no development now...

You have a link for it? Mine doesn't work anymore.

Here's the UKMET intensity guidance (including new modeled storms): http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtnt82.egrr..txt

Thanks! The maps should be updating in about 5-10 minutes on the meteocentre site.

12z UKMET takes a 1004mb low towards Texas in 4-5 days.

[srainhoutx]

I'm really surprised this hasn't been invested yet. It's 20/70 with recon scheduled.

Notice the first Mission states INVEST and the second Mission states Cyclone. It's coming before long...

[bamajammer4eva]

GFS showing 1003mb and just off the Chandeleur Islands and either heading for the MS Coast or will hook one way or the other. No consistency to the GFS again, so King A, it can't score a coup. It has done Mexico and Florida and points in between and even not developed in the span of 3 days.

CMC out to 48h at 1001mb still NE of Yucatán. If it continues toward NW FL that's 4 days of almost all runs ending between Navarre and Apalachicola.

GFS adds Alabama to landfalls. It stalls out off S Al and then moves in weakening

Looks like GFS and Canadian both made a decent westward shift so perhaps coming around to the Euro/UKmet idea of TX/MX impact?

[psyclone]

always worth remembering that tropical disturbances, depressions and low end storms tend to = about the same or similar sensible wx for those of us on land: heavy rain with some attendant SVR WX threat. Naturally those designations are of greater importance to those with marine interests where gradient winds can really move the needle WRT sea state.

[tolakram]

Long loop, too large to embed.

http://i.imgur.com/ndf3Szj.gif

[srainhoutx]

Updated Weather Prediction Center Extended Range Discussion with the Bolded and Underlined Commentary regarding the likely Gulf System...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2017

VALID 12Z TUE JUN 20 2017 - 12Z SAT JUN 24 2017

...RECORD HEAT OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE DESSERT SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

...A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY BEING MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST NEXT
WEEK, BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN...


...PATTERN OVERVIEW/MODEL EVALUATION...

AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAINED ANCHORED OVER CALIFORNIA
AND THE DESSERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FLOW
SHOULD BE FAST AND ZONAL NORTH OF THE STRONG RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHILE A DOWNSTREAM
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER
THE U.S. BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WHERE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW
POTENTIALLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS EARLIER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CMC,
GFS, AND EVEN THE LATEST 06Z GEFS MEAN TRACK A SYSTEM TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST/FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY, WHILE THE UKMET,
ECMWF, AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRING A SYSTEM WESTWARD TOWARDS
EASTERN MEXICO/SOUTH TEXAS. THE GEFS AND ECMWF INDIVIDUAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EACH CLUSTERED AROUND THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS,
SUGGESTING BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE WITHIN THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE
SOLUTIONS.

THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STARTED WITH A BLEND BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE, BUT THEN RELIED MORE
HEAVILY ON THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS BY DAY 6-7
(FRIDAY-SATURDAY) IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
FLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEK. ALSO, THE
FORECAST WAS MANUALLY ADJUSTED TOWARDS THE ECWMF/ECWMF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
SINCE IT MATCHED BETTER WITH CONTINUITY. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL
MODIFICATIONS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER THE 17Z WPC/NHC TROPICAL
COORDINATION CALL.


...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RECORD BREAKING HEAT ARE EXPECTED BENEATH THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE PARKED OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE DESSERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING THE 120 DEGREE MARK IN SOME
LOCATIONS. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD THREATEN THE GULF COAST STATES,
BUT THE TIMING, LOCATION, AND MAGNITUDE OF THE EVENT STILL HINGES
ON THE VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST OF A DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE
YUCATAN (PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION). TO THE NORTH...DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
WITH PERHAPS SOME NOCTURNAL MESOSCALE COMPLEXES WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OHIO
VALLEY.


GERHARDT

[wxman57]

I'm still not trusting the northerly movement. Think the EC is on the right track with the west movement. Wish I was more confident, though. I'm not sure we'll really have a good feel for the track until a well-defined low forms. Maybe tomorrow evening. I AM confident that landfall will occur between Veracruz & Key West.

[RL3AO]

I'm still not trusting the northerly movement. Think the EC is on the right track with the west movement. Wish I was more confident, though. I'm not sure we'll really have a good feel for the track until a well-defined low forms. Maybe tomorrow evening. I AM confident that landfall will occur between Veracruz & Key West.

That there is why you make the big bucks.

[cycloneye]

The waiting game is over!! We have INVEST 93L

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