Possible development in Western Caribbean - (Is INVEST 93L)

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro is similar to the 00z Euro, and actually similar to all the other past Euro runs that show a WGOM/BOC solution. Only difference is that it is developing an EPAC storm that looks to be stronger and creating unfavorable conditions for this system.

[stormlover2013]

From Ryan maue: New GFS-parallel model curiously develops a tropical storm in central Gulf and takes it north into Florida. Not buying that at all.

[Cpv17]

When should we expect this to be tagged by the NHC?

[Ntxw]

It's still a very broad area of convection in the Carib with some time to go before into the gulf. Models are decent 3 days out, some skill 5 days out and 7 or more is just a good guess. I wouldn't put too much stock into any runs yet at least until it gets out of the Yucatan. It will be slow that's for sure.

[Tireman4]

It's still a very broad area of convection in the Carib with some time to go before into the gulf. Models are decebt 3 days out, some skill 5 days out and 7 or more is just a good guess. I wouldn't put too much stock into any runs yet at least until it's gets out of the Yucatan. It will be slow that's for sure.

I am thinking...wild guess...nothing much will happen until mid to late next week..

[gatorcane]

From Ryan maue: New GFS-parallel model curiously develops a tropical storm in central Gulf and takes it north into Florida. Not buying that at all.

Not just central Gulf but Eastern Gulf, MUCH different solution than the ECMWF but similar to the 12Z GFS non-parallel though that model didn't really develop a storm out of this in the Eastern Gulf but there was a distinct area of vorticity not present in the prior GFS runs.

[tropicwatch]

Pretty nifty pressure drop at buoy 42057 16.908 N 81.422 W (16°54'30" N 81°25'18" W) from 1012.8mb to 1011mb past two hours.

[Florida1118]

It's still a very broad area of convection in the Carib with some time to go before into the gulf. Models are decebt 3 days out, some skill 5 days out and 7 or more is just a good guess. I wouldn't put too much stock into any runs yet at least until it's gets out of the Yucatan. It will be slow that's for sure.

I am thinking...wild guess...nothing much will happen until mid to late next week..

Late next week it'll be inland somewhere. If it's going to do something, it'll have to do it by midweek or sooner.

[NDG]

Wow, so the one overplaying the ridge all along has been the Euro, even on its short term.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro is back to flooding Louisiana again while keeping the LLC well south of the border. Very odd.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The models are such a mess right now; both the GFS and the ECMWF are showing multiple LLCs developing everywhere, preventing consolidation. Still far out.

[tarheelprogrammer]

There is a really good circulation evident with this now. It should be at least an invest by now IMHO.

[BobHarlem]

18Z GFS Still showing a Florida Panhandle hit. (Although most of the rain is to the east)

[Hurricaneman]

18Z GFS Still showing a Florida Panhandle hit. (Although most of the rain is to the east)

Basically shows a typical June slop storm but that would be par for the course in June

[CYCLONE MIKE]

It has been mentioned here locally that IF the latest euro runs come close to veryifying, and that's a big IF, could be similar to Frances '98 with much of south LA getting some pretty substational flooding. Not leaning any one way right now but trust the gfs the least.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GEFS favors the eastern GOMEX.

[gatorcane]

Parallel MU shifts east in the EGOM and is stronger

[ROCK]

Just love when GFS shows almost an opposite solution compared to the EURO..
NAVGEM 12Z- weak up into Tx
UKMET 12z- similar

It's a soupy mess right now..

[ROCK]

18z NAM is cool.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

[wxman57]

I hope to have a pretty good idea where this thing is going by next Wednesday...