Possible development in Western Caribbean - (Is INVEST 93L)

[cycloneye]

Here we go.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
western Caribbean Sea or Central America late this week or this
weekend. Some gradual development of this system is possible
thereafter while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[NDG]

0z Euro paints a fairly good UL environment over the area by late weekend/early next week.

[Nimbus]

The climo models tend to like this area for early season storms, persistent low pressure at the surface from shower lift activity that can persist when the shear drops.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is buried in BOC.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm thinking this thing won't develop.

[Alyono]

parallel MU now makes this a hurricane

[cycloneye]

parallel MU now makes this a hurricane

And a strong one.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas by the weekend.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while
it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[srainhoutx]

parallel MU now makes this a hurricane

Vertically stacked with a favorable Upper Ridge with excellent Anticyclonic ventilation. Although it does take 8 to 10 days to fully organize.

[TheStormExpert]

parallel MU now makes this a hurricane

And a strong one.

Has this model proven to be any better than the current GFS, just curious.

[Kingarabian]

It's 50/50 in my opinion. It hasn't been exactly great.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: It's 50/50 in my opinion. It hasn't been exactly great.

Seems to have been overly bullish with the TC's so far this year.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF is just off north coast of Yucatan at 144 hours.

[Kingarabian]

With the high building back.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: With the high building back.

Result=BOC bound.Is broad.

[Alyono]

EC upper winds are quite favorable. Not sure why it keeps it as a TD/TS

[Kingarabian]

EC upper winds are quite favorable. Not sure why it keeps it as a TD/TS

Probably due to sheer size and time.

[Alyono]

EC upper winds are quite favorable. Not sure why it keeps it as a TD/TS

Probably due to sheer size and time.

it has a full 2 days. Plenty of time

[cycloneye]

The infancy north of Panama of what may be the Western Caribbean system that will be a slow thing to develop.
 https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh/status/874715087239565312

[TheStormExpert]

EC upper winds are quite favorable. Not sure why it keeps it as a TD/TS

Probably due to sheer size and time.

it has a full 2 days. Plenty of time

Alyono are you saying this could become a hurricane?