Strong Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands (Is INVEST 92L)

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS paralell is more agressive than operational.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/PVGrahb.png[/ig]

The GFS paralell seems to have a completely different and conducive enviornment in the GOM and MDR.

[abajan]

... I think if the current trends persist with the organization, I think we possibly will have an invest designated within the NBA ext 48 hours.

Wow. Even the basketball association is interested.

[OuterBanker]

... I think if the current trends persist with the organization, I think we possibly will have an invest designated within the NBA ext 48 hours.

Wow. Even the basketball association is interested.

Probably think that a hurricane is the only thing that could beat the Warriors

[cycloneye]

A large area of showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles
south of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a strong
tropical wave. Development, if any, of this system is expected to
be slow to occur during the next several days while the wave moves
westward near 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

.

[Gustywind]

... I think if the current trends persist with the organization, I think we possibly will have an invest designated within the NBA ext 48 hours.

Wow. Even the basketball association is interested.

Probably think that a hurricane is the only thing that could beat the Warriors

And a Curry sauce will bring more chance for this feature to developp quicker than predicted?

[Gustywind]

Right now we have a 1011 low pressure who has formed related to this strong twave... looks like conditions are getting more conducive for this developp.


Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 10N23W
to a 1011 mb low at 06N23W to 00N23W, moving west at 15-20 kt.
CIRA LPW imagery show the wave is in a very moist environment from
the surface to 850 mb, along with favorable wind shear, and upper
level divergence. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 00N-10N between 22W-28W.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm going to go ahead and bet we see a short-lived TS from this strong TW at least.

[cycloneye]

Is June.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/874991674296074240

[tolakram]

Moving west at 20mph sounds pretty darn fast but am I remembering wrong? How fast were waves moving in prior years when movement speed inhibited development?

[Alyono]

I have no clue what Ventrice is looking at. I looked on the EC website at the actual probs, it is saying about a 70% chance of Gulf development, with about a 40% chance of TS winds (and that always underestimates TS wind probs pre genesis)

[cycloneye]

GFS ensemble mean are bullish.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/874999213398085634

[Alyono]

Not that impressed with this feature. Seems to be more convection associated with the base of a trough. That almost never develops

[Kingarabian]

I have no clue what Ventrice is looking at. I looked on the EC website at the actual probs, it is saying about a 70% chance of Gulf development, with about a 40% chance of TS winds (and that always underestimates TS wind probs pre genesis)

Yeah Ventrices EPS calculation for TC genesis is too high for TS probabilities. Max I see is 20%, and the EPS members themselves aren't even showing anything. He's probably using a different scale.

[northjaxpro]

... I think if the current trends persist with the organization, I think we possibly will have an invest designated within the NBA ext 48 hours.

Wow. Even the basketball association is interested.

Lol.. I never realized at the time I posted earlier today that I bought the NBA into the mix LOL. Obviously a sleepy early morning post by yours truly.

That kind of a day....

[gatorcane]

Saved floater loop, nice spin for sure, see left side of image:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. 1. Showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles
south of the Cabo Verde Islands associated with a strong
tropical wave have recently diminished. Development of this system,
if any, is expected to be slow to occur during the next several days
while the wave moves westward near 20 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141735
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

A strong tropical wave is over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms well south of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Its axis extends from 10N23W to a 1012 mb
low pressure located near 05N24W to 02N24W. Development, if any,
of this system is expected to be slow to occur over the next
several days while the wave moves westward at 15 to 20 kt over the
tropical Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

GFS operational at 18z is much more bullish.

[Hammy]

That would be quite the small storm should it develop--could it be why the Euro isn't showing anything?

[Hurricaneman]

Can't rule out a tropical storm for the southern lesser Antilles from this one