Strong Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands (Is INVEST 92L)

[cycloneye]

There is no TWO for this area but since is a incipient strong wave and one of the NHC forecasters mentions it apart that models try to spin it,I am making a thread.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/874616892404715520

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
625 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along the coast of west Africa with axis from
11N15W to 04N15W moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is a low
amplitude wave with a very moist area on SSMI TPW imagery. The 700
mb trough is also S of 10N. The GFS model guidance shows a
tropical wave with axis near 15W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 03N-10N between 13W-20W.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/874609147299475457

[weathaguyry]

Maybe it can do something like TD 2 in 2003

[RL3AO]

I'm thinking the impressive CC-Kelvin Wave that is passing through the region may have helped amplify the wave and increase convection in that part of the world. Impressive to see in mid-June.

[TheStormExpert]

I've been noticing the GFS for several runs now has been intensifying or trying to develop this and other waves on approach to the Lesser Antilles.

[cycloneye]

Low rider wave continues to be shown by GFS in the 12z run.

[Alyono]

the Gulf system is likely to shear this apart as it approaches the islands

[TheStormExpert]

the Gulf system is likely to shear this apart as it approaches the islands

What Gulf system? It'll be lucky enough to make it into the BoC.

[Alyono]

the Gulf system is likely to shear this apart as it approaches the islands

What Gulf system? It'll be lucky enough to make it into the BoC.

[cycloneye]

GFS mantains it passed Trinidad and Tobago but after this position it weakens.

[cycloneye]

Well is the CMC so take this as so.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

the Gulf system is likely to shear this apart as it approaches the islands

What Gulf system? It'll be lucky enough to make it into the BoC.

...as supported by absolutely nothing.

[cycloneye]

Faint very weak low at 144 hours by 12z ECMWF.

[tolakram]

It's early in the season folks. Please feel free to provide your opinion but refrain from attacking other posters. In addition, please think / re-read two or three times before posting quick chat like retorts that offer no substance. Thanks.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
132 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017



A new tropical wave has entered the Atlantic Ocean. Its axis
extends from 12N16W to 05N17W. A large area of moderate and
isolated strong convection is related to this wave extending from
05N to 10N between 15W and 22W. The wave shows up very well in
the TPW animation, where abundant moisture is observed. A wind
surge follows the wave.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET with some weak development then looks to get sheared in the Eastern Caribbean. I agree with Alyono, the Gulf system will create a very hostile environment in the Caribbean so it doesn't appear this can survive in the Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

Wonder if this will ever get a mention in the TWO.

[Kingarabian]

Only 1 of the 51 EPS members show a defined low materializing from this.

[AutoPenalti]

Wonder if this will ever get a mention in the TWO.

I doubt it, but if it does it will probably be tagged with a 10%/10%