Potential Tropical Cyclones Discussion Thread

[dexterlabio]

Just to clarify, a system being designated as a potential tropical cyclone does not mean that it is already a tropical depression? I just checked the forums and I only got a few tidbit of information about these changes. I was thinking that Bret first became a PTC2 then TD2 afterwards, but then I learned it was upgraded straight to TS.

IMO this new PTC designation is helpful especially when we have an invest that is expected to rapidly intensify and affect landmass within a short period of time. However, I also do think that issuing TS/Hurricane warnings ahead of a tropical disturbance with high chance of undergoing RI would suffice without having it called a PTC. Just my opinion though.

[euro6208]

Potential but it says 35 knots for the INIT? Isn't that already a TC or that is what they expect it to reach?

It has winds similar to Bret.

[dexterlabio]

Potential but it says 35 knots for the INIT? Isn't that already a TC or that is what they expect it to reach?

It has winds similar to Bret.

If I'm not mistaken a tropical disturbance can have 35kts winds or more but still not considered even as a depression. Highest winds should occur in the core, plus the low-level center must be closed and not elongated.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I think they should have just issued the watches/warnings pre-designation (as a TC) without forming a new designation, but I do understand their logic.

[Alyono]

I also feel that unfortunately people take it more seriously when there is a legit named TC as opposed to just seeing a "potential" TC with advisories.

I agree with this-they should limit themselves to issuing watches until the storm is designated. Why should somebody miss work and leave the area because of a hurricane warning when there is no confirmed developed tropical system-just like with tornadoes. We don't take action just because conditions are favorable for tornado development so the same rule should apply to hurricanes IMO.

you could not be further from accurate

There are actions taken in the Midwest just based upon the risk level of the day. Furthermore, tornado warnings ARE issued prior to an actual tornado forming. A potential TC advisory can be thought of as a Doppler indicated tornado

[Alyono]

what NHC is doing is merely catching up to private industry

The private sector has been issuing advisories on disturbances that have yet to become depressions for more than 15 years. This is required as many interests require lead time of several days. There is not the luxury to be able to wait until we meet a scientific designation before issuing advisories

[RL3AO]

you could not be further from accurate

There are actions taken in the Midwest just based upon the risk level of the day. Furthermore, tornado warnings ARE issued prior to an actual tornado forming. A potential TC advisory can be thought of as a Doppler indicated tornado

There have been events where emergency management has begun to pre-place assets 3 to 5 days before a likely severe weather outbreak, because of SPC. Not to mention that many districts will close schools early on days where a large tornado threat is expected.

[bamajammer4eva]

I also feel that unfortunately people take it more seriously when there is a legit named TC as opposed to just seeing a "potential" TC with advisories.

I agree with this-they should limit themselves to issuing watches until the storm is designated. Why should somebody miss work and leave the area because of a hurricane warning when there is no confirmed developed tropical system-just like with tornadoes. We don't take action just because conditions are favorable for tornado development so the same rule should apply to hurricanes IMO.

you could not be further from accurate

There are actions taken in the Midwest just based upon the risk level of the day. Furthermore, tornado warnings ARE issued prior to an actual tornado forming. A potential TC advisory can be thought of as a Doppler indicated tornado

Ive noticed that sometimes the NWS does issue a significant weather alert for a county when a storm is intensifying and showing rotation saying if the storm continues to intensify a tornado warning may be required so get ready to take action. I guess it doesn't really matter when they can issue a hurricane warning for a real hurricane only for it to turn away or fizzle so people just have to know they're not always right.

[Tireman4]

what NHC is doing is merely catching up to private industry

The private sector has been issuing advisories on disturbances that have yet to become depressions for more than 15 years. This is required as many interests require lead time of several days. There is not the luxury to be able to wait until we meet a scientific designation before issuing advisories

Yes. This. Yes.