Strong Tropical Wave WSW of CV Islands (INVEST 94L is up)

[cycloneye]

Wave has been introduced into the TWD:

A tropical wave extends its axis over Africa from 20N15W to
11N15W, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave was found using
satellite imagery and model diagnostics. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along the northern portion of the wave mainly
north of 14N between 13W-18W.

Looks like a different wave. They introduced the black line. The models were developing the red line.
http://i.imgur.com/zdjwg0A.png

Oh ok.I thought it was the wave modeled as they have "model diagnostics".

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge into the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday or Thursday. Some
development of this system is possible later this week before
environmental conditions become unfavorable for development over the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge into the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday or Thursday. Environmental
conditions have become less conducive for the wave to develop.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[floridasun78]

look nhc notice models too late gave area circle models have drop %20 down 10%

[Hammy]

Looks like chances are decreasing, but we really shouldn't even be getting waves this strong this time of year to start with.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like chances are decreasing, but we really shouldn't even be getting waves this strong this time of year to start with.

I cannot begin to imagine what Cape Verde season will look like.

[bamajammer4eva]

Shouldn't we actually be getting into a period where conditions get worse before they get better for the main part of the season? Haven't heard any mention of the dust coming from Africa yet.

[beoumont]

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like SAL won't be an issue until about west of 30W.

[abajan]

It's been dropped altogether from the latest TWO. However, like Hammy stated, we shouldn't even be getting waves this strong at this juncture. Not sure if it's necessarily portentous of an active hurricane season, but it's an interesting June nevertheless.

[cycloneye]

RL3AO Introduced at 12z analysis.

[beoumont]

Shouldn't we actually be getting into a period where conditions get worse before they get better for the main part of the season? Haven't heard any mention of the dust coming from Africa yet.

Here is this mornings actual visible shot of e. Atlantic where you can actually see the extent of the dust at present (the milky areas where the clouds are not as clear to see). I have seen worse; but there is plenty of African dust blowoff.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Shouldn't we actually be getting into a period where conditions get worse before they get better for the main part of the season? Haven't heard any mention of the dust coming from Africa yet.

Here is this mornings actual visible shot of e. Atlantic where you can actually see the extent of the dust at present (the milky areas where the clouds are not as clear to see). I have seen worse; but there is plenty of African dust blowoff.

How does it stack up to recent years in terms of SAL outbreak?

[weathaguyry]

No mention in the 2PM TWO

[cycloneye]

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 15W/16W from 21N
southward. This position is a median location, and based on long-
loop satellite imagery. Convective precipitation: numerous strong
from 11N to 17N between 13W and 16W, from Guinea to Mauritania.
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from 04N
to 13N between Africa and 23W.

[TheStormExpert]

No mention in the 2PM TWO

It was mentioned up to yesterday evening in the TWO's but since development is no longer expected they dropped it.

[AutoPenalti]

Shouldn't we actually be getting into a period where conditions get worse before they get better for the main part of the season? Haven't heard any mention of the dust coming from Africa yet.

Here is this mornings actual visible shot of e. Atlantic where you can actually see the extent of the dust at present (the milky areas where the clouds are not as clear to see). I have seen worse; but there is plenty of African dust blowoff.

OT but man I'm so glad there's still people with XP. I applaud you, good sir

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic near the coast of
Africa has become somewhat tilted in a northwest to southeast
fashion during the day since its northern vorticity lobe moved
off the coast of Africa on Tuesday evening, with its axis
extending from 20N17.5W to near 09N16W. It is moving westward
at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded within a rather large envelope
of deep moisture as seen in the latest satellite animation. Moist
southwesterly flow is noted across the southern extension of the
wave axis where it crosses the monsoon trough. Large clusters of
scattered moderate to strong convection are seen along and east of
the wave axis to inland the coast of Africa from 10N to 15N.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm east
of the axis from 09N to 10N.

[floridasun78]

this wave now leaving is kissing Africa bye look huge

[weathaguyry]

Not bad for a Tropical Wave in June