Strong Tropical Wave WSW of CV Islands (INVEST 94L is up)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure has remained nearly stationary about
650 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although shower
and thunderstorm activity is disorganized, environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for some development of this
system later this week while the disturbance moves westward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Alyono]

the fact that the 10 day forecast says recurve is cause for concern. We know the MU will not get the 10 day long wave pattern right

[TheStormExpert]

Was hoping they'd raise the 2-day development to 20% so we can get an invest tag but it looks like conditions will be getting more favorable beyond 48hrs.

[SFLcane]

the fact that the 10 day forecast says recurve is cause for concern. We know the MU will not get the 10 day long wave pattern right

This!

[AutoPenalti]

the fact that the 10 day forecast says recurve is cause for concern. We know the MU will not get the 10 day long wave pattern right

This!

Can you explain this for me?

[TheStormExpert]

the fact that the 10 day forecast says recurve is cause for concern. We know the MU will not get the 10 day long wave pattern right

This!

It seems like every day beyond 5-7 days out the models show one or another 500mb solution. It's when you get within a week of it happening when the models have a clearer picture of where the system will go.

In this case though there has been much more evident troughiness draped along the NE and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and sometimes SE.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro Parallel is pretty much the same as before. I believe it's nothing more than a 1012 low. Tries to develop it but as soon as it gets north of the lesser Antilles, it kills it.

[RL3AO]

12z Euro Parallel is pretty much the same as before. I believe it's nothing more than a 1012 low. Tries to develop it but as soon as it gets north of the lesser Antilles, it kills it.

It looks like it will have a 2 or so day interaction with an upper low near 60W. Euro says it won't survive. I'm skeptical about that forecast.

[weathaguyry]

Hmmm, if ridge builds in like Euro is showing, this may graze the EC in a similar fashion as Earl in 2010 did

[blp]

Tweet from Levi.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/881633560121278465

[cycloneye]

WE got it!!

INVEST 94L Discussion thread