Strong Tropical Wave WSW of CV Islands (INVEST 94L is up)

[cycloneye]

Some models like it mildly so let's see how all turns out on the next few days as the wave emerges the African continent on the 29th.
Image updates every 3 hours.



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro now onboard with development and stronger than the GFS. But like the GFS dissipates it thereafter.

[Gustywind]

Some models like it mildly so let's see how all turns out on the next few days as the wave emerges the African continent on the 29th.



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Very interresting Cycloneye, good catch Whereas, what are prédictions for the shear and SAL as the SST?

[cycloneye]

Some models like it mildly so let's see how all turns out on the next few days as the wave emerges the African continent on the 29th.

http://i.imgur.com/Tl8avC9.jpg

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Very interresting Cycloneye, good catch Whereas, what are prédictions for the shear and SAL as the SST?

Hi Gusty,Not a bright future ahead after what the models have close to CV due to sal / dry air.

[Gustywind]

Some models like it mildly so let's see how all turns out on the next few days as the wave emerges the African continent on the 29th.

http://i.imgur.com/Tl8avC9.jpg

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Very interresting Cycloneye, good catch Whereas, what are prédictions for the shear and SAL as the SST?

Hi Gusty,Not a bright future ahead after what the models have close to CV due to sal / dry air.

Hummm... yeah... anyway we will keep a small eye on it even if all in all may not be in it favor

[blp]

Even though this might have a short life. It is still quite rare to have a Tropical Storm form in the Eastern Atlantic in late June. Interesting that the Euro shows this because it typically lags behind in cyclogenesis.

[RL3AO]

The wave is currently between 0° and 5°E near Benin and Togo. Very clear signature on the left exit region of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ).

[blp]

12z GFS Vorticity picking it up as well.

[cycloneye]

I asked Ryan Maue about the Euro on this wave in Twitter.

Replying to @CycloforumsPR
Quite the convective burst that develops into a tropical storm. Odd development.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/879431096940867585

[TheStormExpert]

When I first saw this on the GFS on it's 06z run this morning I thought it might be onto something but then again the Euro didn't show anything with the next 10 days so I wasn't sure. Just like we saw with Bret and Cindy the Euro could drop it just like that on it's 00z run tomorrow morning so we shall see but then again the models haven't been the most consistent so far this season.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Actually quite a bit of the GFS ensembles like the wave after MDR as well. Something to watch at least. Odd to see the Cape Verdes so active already.

GEFS at hour 234:


Also, the waves over Africa have not let up a bit. If anything they are growing in intensity. I cannot remember seeing so many healthy looking waves so early in the season.

Current image of Africa:

[weathaguyry]

Even though SAL and Shear are not favorable out in the MDR, this can have a good shot of developing near the African Coast, which would be pretty amazing for this time of year!!! GFS AND Euro are on board, and this is now within 72hrs., so if something were to develop, the NHC would have to bite soon...

[Kingarabian]

Hi-resolution Euro has a hurricane per Ryan Maue.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/879431904025616384

[gatorcane]

Actually quite a bit of the GFS ensembles like the wave after MDR as well. Something to watch at least. Odd to see the Cape Verdes so active already.

GEFS at hour 234:
http://i.imgur.com/kSLJlxf.jpg

Also, the waves over Africa have not let up a bit. If anything they are growing in intensity. I cannot remember seeing so many healthy looking waves so early in the season.

Current image of Africa:
http://i.imgur.com/pOKBB4g.gif

That is a good number of ensembles that keep this as a storm that far out. Looks like at least 15 GFS ensembles keep a storm or a low pressure area out there traversing west across the MDR even a week from now. Hard to believe but we watch and wait what to see what happens.

[RL3AO]

Fairly easy wave to track both in the GFS analysis and satellite.

[Gustywind]

Fairly easy wave to track both in the GFS analysis and satellite.

Very nice thanks.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS rolling soon. Will be interesting to watch.

[johngaltfla]

WOW! Getting a little early for this. However if winter begins in Florida in October with some sub-55 degree temps, I'll take the trade off.

[TheStormExpert]

Actually quite a bit of the GFS ensembles like the wave after MDR as well. Something to watch at least. Odd to see the Cape Verdes so active already.

GEFS at hour 234:
http://i.imgur.com/kSLJlxf.jpg

Also, the waves over Africa have not let up a bit. If anything they are growing in intensity. I cannot remember seeing so many healthy looking waves so early in the season.

Current image of Africa:
http://i.imgur.com/pOKBB4g.gif

That is a good number of ensembles that keep this as a storm that far out. Looks like at least 15 GFS ensembles keep a storm or a low pressure area out there traversing west across the MDR even a week from now. Hard to believe but we watch and wait what to see what happens.

Well FWIW this mornings 00z GFS and yesterdays 12z CMC had it making it all the way to The Bahamas and off the SE U.S. Coast.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS little development. Very weak.