Strong Tropical Wave WSW of CV Islands (INVEST 94L is up)

[RL3AO]

Is that the eroding high that was being talked about that would take this OTS?

It's more the other way around. Can the high erode the low over eastern Canada? More technically, it looks like the ridge over Manitoba will eventually break over the top of the trough producing a cutoff low. In past runs, the ridge was breaking earlier resulting in a cutoff low over the SE US. A ridge built over the NE US resulting in the storm getting closer to the coast. This 12z run has the ridge break later and further east. Cutoff low is near Newfoundland instead. Pulls the storm out to sea.

[shah83]

12z CMC is quite the big uh-oh

[RL3AO]

Euro seems to favor the one cutoff low over eastern Canada vs the multiple troughs in the GFS. I'm guessing the synoptic pattern in the Euro would still take a storm out to sea, but the turn probably wouldn't be as sharp.

[TheStormExpert]

12z CMC is quite the big uh-oh

Typical CMC!

[weathaguyry]

With the setup the Euro is suggesting, could this graze OBX, or the NEUS/SE Canada? (Of course, if this develops at all)

[RL3AO]

The environment looks pretty favorable if it can get north of Puerto Rico. The Euro and GFS-P could be underplaying it if they think the wave won't survive that long.

[AutoPenalti]

12z CMC is quite the big uh-oh

Typical CMC!

Disregarding the intensity of it, the pattern suggests that it isn't necessarily out of the question.

[TheStormExpert]

The environment looks pretty favorable if it can get north of Puerto Rico. The Euro and GFS-P could be underplaying it if they think the wave won't survive that long.

I'm thinking the Euro is up to it's usual mid-range issue.

[weathaguyry]

Now up to 10/50

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO=10%-50%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low
pressure located about 650 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for some gradual development of this system later
this week while it moves generally westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Alyono]

all models trended stronger, EXCEPT for the ECMWF

ECMWF just also had a bust with Nanmadol in the WPAC. Never saw it. This seems to be the type of storm it usually misses

[gatorcane]

Way too early to know if this recurves or ends up further west. Interesting potential July storm to say the least. Good job to the GFS for showing possible genesis yet again way in advance.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Either ECMWF is completely wrong, or it is on to something. I think it may be weaker at current 12z run than last night's 0z run.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pretty good GFS ensemble support, but pretty spread out.

[TheStormExpert]

Pretty good GFS ensemble support, but pretty spread out.

Dang! Some of those MSLP's are quite low meaning a stronger storm.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

UKMET still supporting a system?

[RL3AO]

I'm hoping for an invest soon since I'd like to see what the HWRF and HMON do with it.

[Kingarabian]

Pretty sure the Euro is not developing it due to the suppressed Kelvin wave in the Atlantic. And the EPAC is about to get hyperactive, so usually when the EPAC is going the Atlantic is quiet.

[RL3AO]

And the EPAC is about to get hyperactive, so usually when the EPAC is going the Atlantic is quiet.

I'd buy that keeping the Caribbean quiet. Shouldn't really impact the MDR east of the islands or the Atlantic north of the Caribbean.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro has nothing.

Supressed Kelvin Wave doesn't seem to be an issue with the GFS and co. for whatever reason.