Strong Tropical Wave WSW of CV Islands (INVEST 94L is up)

[Kingarabian]

Euro has nothing.

Supressed Kelvin Wave doesn't seem to be an issue with the GFS and co. for whatever reason.

I think the GFS is having a hard time choosing between the TC inducing westerlies and the TC prohibiting suppressed Kelvin. Maybe that's why it's been so on and off with development between each cycle.

When you have robust waves running into some impressive westerlies (currently in the ATL MDR), you would definitely favor development. Check the far eastern pacific, where westerlies are currently dominating and development is being favored for each wave rolling off CA.

[psyclone]

This system (whether it develops or not) represents a continuation of an active MDR at a time when it's usually dead....seems to be an increasingly compelling argument in favor of a more active season. We're usually not looking this far east this early and on the rare occasions we do...we tend to have a lot of late nights come August and September.

[Alyono]

UKMET still supporting a system?

yes. It's ONLY the EC and the NAVGEM that does nothing with it. Not a good sign when the only support you have is the NAVGEM

[Alyono]

Euro has nothing.

Supressed Kelvin Wave doesn't seem to be an issue with the GFS and co. for whatever reason.

suppressed Kelvin wave does not mean no development. It does not favor rapid intensification, but you can still have gradual development.

Had we had a favorable Kelvin Wave, I suspect we'd be seeing a rapid intensifier moving across the Tropical Atlantic

[Kingarabian]

UKMET still supporting a system?

yes. It's ONLY the EC and the NAVGEM that does nothing with it. Not a good sign when the only support you have is the NAVGEM

It also has support from the GFS Parallel and the Euro Parallel.

[weathaguyry]

Euro has nothing.

Supressed Kelvin Wave doesn't seem to be an issue with the GFS and co. for whatever reason.

I think the GFS is having a hard time choosing between the TC inducing westerlies and the TC prohibiting suppressed Kelvin. Maybe that's why it's been so on and off with development between each cycle.

Just because there is a Suppressed Kelvin Wave does not mean that local conditions cannot favor development, if this finds an area where there is nice moisture and light shear, it can organize quick, and as long as the environment will allow for the system to maintain convection, it will be able to hold its strength until conditions get favorable again, the GFS is probably not correct with its solution of Cat 2 Hurricane, but a mid-grade TS is possible. I am only an amateur when it comes to this, and I am probably not correct, but this is my understanding of it

[Yellow Evan]

GFS-P has it.

[Kingarabian]

Euro has nothing.

Supressed Kelvin Wave doesn't seem to be an issue with the GFS and co. for whatever reason.

I think the GFS is having a hard time choosing between the TC inducing westerlies and the TC prohibiting suppressed Kelvin. Maybe that's why it's been so on and off with development between each cycle.

Just because there is a Suppressed Kelvin Wave does not mean that local conditions cannot favor development, if this finds an area where there is nice moisture and light shear, it can organize quick, and as long as the environment will allow for the system to maintain convection, it will be able to hold its strength until conditions get favorable again, the GFS is probably not correct with its solution of Cat 2 Hurricane, but a mid-grade TS is possible. I am only an amateur when it comes to this, and I am probably not correct, but this is my understanding of it

suppressed Kelvin wave does not mean no development. It does not favor rapid intensification, but you can still have gradual development.

Had we had a favorable Kelvin Wave, I suspect we'd be seeing a rapid intensifier moving across the Tropical Atlantic

And the GFS is on and off with development. For the past 8 cycles, it's development or no development. So with that noted, the Euro's solution holds some water.

[Kingarabian]

[mg]http://i.imgur.com/iSKaUYm.png[/img]

GFS-P has it.

Euro has it too, and it even dropped it to 1010mb in a run yesterday. it's just not showing further development, similar to the GFS Parallel and Euro Parallel.

[Alyono]

UKMET still supporting a system?

yes. It's ONLY the EC and the NAVGEM that does nothing with it. Not a good sign when the only support you have is the NAVGEM

It also has support from the GFS Parallel and the Euro Parallel.

MU parallel does develop it. It merely dissipates it as it moves through the islands

[Alyono]

what is the resolution of the euro parallel?

[tarheelprogrammer]

yes. It's ONLY the EC and the NAVGEM that does nothing with it. Not a good sign when the only support you have is the NAVGEM

It also has support from the GFS Parallel and the Euro Parallel.

MU parallel does develop it. It merely dissipates it as it moves through the islands

Why does it dissipate it? Do you believe that solution is the more likely outcome?

[Yellow Evan]

what is the resolution of the euro parallel?

9 km.

[Kingarabian]

what is the resolution of the euro parallel?

9KM.

And 18km for the EPS.

[Alyono]

what is the resolution of the euro parallel?

9 km.

double facepalm

you'd have thought they would NOT put the resolution in the convective grey zone

[Alyono]

It also has support from the GFS Parallel and the Euro Parallel.

MU parallel does develop it. It merely dissipates it as it moves through the islands

Why does it dissipate it? Do you believe that solution is the more likely outcome?

shear. It gets too close to an upper trough

[tarheelprogrammer]

MU parallel does develop it. It merely dissipates it as it moves through the islands

Why does it dissipate it? Do you believe that solution is the more likely outcome?

shear. It gets too close to an upper trough

Sounds about right for the Atlantic in recent years for almost all of the storms unless they are well east of the US.

[RL3AO]

what is the resolution of the euro parallel?

9 km.

double facepalm

you'd have thought they would NOT put the resolution in the convective grey zone

Is the grey zone still the same with spectral models?

[Alyono]

9 km.

double facepalm

you'd have thought they would NOT put the resolution in the convective grey zone

Is the grey zone still the same with spectral models?

I dont see why not. Still too coarse for explicit convection, but too fine for paramaterized, especially in the tropics. May work in mid latitudes though, which is what I suspect the EC most cares about

[Yellow Evan]

NASA model also has this but keeps it weak and and kills it in the Caribbean.