Strong Tropical Wave WSW of CV Islands (INVEST 94L is up)

[RL3AO]

Maybe it'll come back to bite me, but I've become much more interested in this system over the last 24 hours. Gonna be a slow week, but after that. Watch out.

[Kingarabian]

I think all the models have this wave - just some show further development and some do not. So kudos to the GFS for sniffing it out first.

[cycloneye]

I think all the models have this wave - just some show further development and some do not. So kudos to the GFS for sniffing it out first.

Even the JMA model has it albeit weak.

[TheStormExpert]

I think the possible real reason the GFS and other models are all over the place with development or no development, and OTS or EC threat is we do not have a developed TC, let alone an invest or even a definite center. I bet once this becomes an invest(should within the next 24-48hrs.) the picture will start to become more clearer.

[RL3AO]

I think the possible real reason the GFS and other models are all over the place with development or no development, and OTS or EC threat is we do not have a developed TC, let alone an invest or even a definite center. I bet once this becomes an invest(should within the next 24-48hrs.) the picture will start to become more clearer.

I think this reasoning is overplayed too much on here. There's no doubt models handle weaker systems worse than strong systems. However, there is an ever more well defined vorticity max that the Euro just plain dissipates in the next 24 hours.

[TheStormExpert]

I think the possible real reason the GFS and other models are all over the place with development or no development, and OTS or EC threat is we do not have a developed TC, let alone an invest or even a definite center. I bet once this becomes an invest(should within the next 24-48hrs.) the picture will start to become more clearer.

I think this reasoning is overplayed too much on here. There's no doubt models handle weaker systems worse than strong systems. However, there is an ever more well defined vorticity max that the Euro just plain dissipates in the next 24 hours.

Yeah, I too have become much more interested in this potential system since yesterday. I mean it's been nine years since we've seen a decent TC in the Atlantic in the month of July.

[Kingarabian]

Past 7 runs from the GFS:

00z no development
06z no development
12z no initial development/weak development
18z development
00z development
06z no initial development/weak development
12z development
18z ???

[Hammy]

I think all the models have this wave - just some show further development and some do not. So kudos to the GFS for sniffing it out first.

Even the JMA model has it albeit weak.

I think the JMA is significantly lower resolution, which is likely at least part of why it's weaker--it tends to do this with every system, even developed ones.

[Alyono]

I think all the models have this wave - just some show further development and some do not. So kudos to the GFS for sniffing it out first.

Even the JMA model has it albeit weak.

I think the JMA is significantly lower resolution, which is likely at least part of why it's weaker--it tends to do this with every system, even developed ones.

tropical tidbits only has access to a 2.5 degree version of the model

[hurricanetrack]

"while it moves generally westward at about 10 mph"

Say that to yourself a few times. Moving west at 10 mph....in early July. West. At. 10 mph. Wow! Remember the days (just recently too) of "moving west at 25 mph" and we all knew, yeah, that won't develop....

The winds of change have slowed in the deep tropics. And it's just July 2.

[blp]

The Ukmet is stronger than the 00z and continues to be among the most aggressive of models which is unusual for the UKmet which historically is conservative. Very intersting

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS is rolling. Let's see if it becomes consistent or remains inconsistent.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I think the possible real reason the GFS and other models are all over the place with development or no development, and OTS or EC threat is we do not have a developed TC, let alone an invest or even a definite center. I bet once this becomes an invest(should within the next 24-48hrs.) the picture will start to become more clearer.

18z coming in stronger as always. We were talking about this yesterday TheStormExpert.

[tarheelprogrammer]

The Ukmet is stronger than the 00z and continues to be among the most aggressive of models which is unusual for the UKmet which historically is conservative. Very intersting

That is eye opening. Does it look like it is going OTS on the UKMET?

[Kingarabian]

I think the possible real reason the GFS and other models are all over the place with development or no development, and OTS or EC threat is we do not have a developed TC, let alone an invest or even a definite center. I bet once this becomes an invest(should within the next 24-48hrs.) the picture will start to become more clearer.

18z coming in stronger as always. We were talking about this yesterday TheStormExpert.

Yeah much stronger.

[AutoPenalti]

The Ukmet is stronger than the 00z and continues to be among the most aggressive of models which is unusual for the UKmet which historically is conservative. Very intersting

That is eye opening. Does it look like it is going OTS on the UKMET?

It looks like it does.

[AutoPenalti]

18z a little stronger this run

[cycloneye]

18z operational GFS much stronger shy of the 40W longitude than past runs.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z Para-GFS also much stronger this run.

[AutoPenalti]

Would like to see how the ridge is his run.