Strong Tropical Wave WSW of CV Islands (INVEST 94L is up)

[tarheelprogrammer]

I see two areas of spin looking at this loop below. Which one is the one the GFS develops. The one on the right of the screen is the most impressive to my eyes.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[cycloneye]

I see two areas of spin looking at this loop below. Which one is the one the GFS develops. The one on the right of the screen is the most impressive to my eyes.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

We will have the best info about location when is designated a Invest.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I see two areas of spin looking at this loop below. Which one is the one the GFS develops. The one on the right of the screen is the most impressive to my eyes.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

We will have the best info about location when is designated a Invest.

Any idea when that will happen? It seems like it is worthy of an invest tag in my opinion, and I am just wondering.

[cycloneye]

I see two areas of spin looking at this loop below. Which one is the one the GFS develops. The one on the right of the screen is the most impressive to my eyes.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

We will have the best info about location when is designated a Invest.

Any idea when that will happen? It seems like it is worthy of an invest tag in my opinion, and I am just wondering.

A good clue about that is the 8 PM TWO on the language and if they go up from 10%-50%.

[Kingarabian]

It's a lot more NE in its positioning @ 168hrs compared to the 12z run. Ridge is displaced east compared to it being more west at 12z.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like a very complex genesis to me, which is probably why the ECMWF is struggling. On the GFS, I see two waves resulting in the development of this system: The one by 30W and the one near 15W.

[AutoPenalti]

Ridge looks off... interesting.

[blp]

It's a lot more NE in its positioning @ 168hrs compared to the 12z run. Ridge is displaced east compared to it being more west at 12z.

I see a different setup than the 12z which had a digging trough. 18z splits out a cut off low and digs South. I don't think this one will eject out as quickly. We have like 40 runs to figure this out so it is early. Let's see what happens.

[tarheelprogrammer]

OTS even sooner on the GFS as a strong cat 2 or borderline cat 3.

[AutoPenalti]

OTS even sooner on the GFS as a strong cat 2 or borderline cat 3.

well that's good news.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/881640142234058752

[Kingarabian]

It's a lot more NE in its positioning @ 168hrs compared to the 12z run. Ridge is displaced east compared to it being more west at 12z.

I see a different setup than the 12z which had a digging trough. 18z splits out a cut off low and digs South. I don't think this one will eject out as quickly. We have like 40 runs to figure this out so it is early. Let's see what happens.

Agreed. I'm in the more western camp. Euro seemed to have a ridge building back in @ the 240hr mark in its 12z run as well.

[tarheelprogrammer]

OTS even sooner on the GFS as a strong cat 2 or borderline cat 3.

well that's good news.

Yeah or it could get really bad for some people on the SE coastline or the mid-Atlantic. At least according to the GFS-OP.

[cycloneye]

OTS even sooner on the GFS as a strong cat 2 or borderline cat 3.

well that's good news.

Except that Bermuda is in the path.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

OTS even sooner on the GFS as a strong cat 2 or borderline cat 3.

well that's good news.

Except that Bermuda is in the path.

Bermuda's been rocked every year since 2014: Fay, Gonzalo, Joaquin, and then Nicole last year.

[AutoPenalti]

OTS even sooner on the GFS as a strong cat 2 or borderline cat 3.

well that's good news.

Except that Bermuda is in the path.

well then that's bad news.

[floridasun78]

i think starting get more storm doing day let see if get more storm tonight wee see invest by mon

[RL3AO]

Long Term Watch: The Euro and GFS are starting to agree on the ridge over the Rockies being more amplified leading to a stronger downstream trough. That would be good news for those along the coast.

[TheStormExpert]

With all the fronts swinging through the NE U.S. regularly for the past many several months it's very hard in my opinion to see this making it to the U.S. east coast.

[Yellow Evan]

With all the fronts swinging through the NE U.S. regularly for the past many several months it's very hard in my opinion to see this making it to the U.S. east coast.

Yea, but I'd say that's the case for any wave rolling off Africa.