Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean
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- cycloneye
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Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean
Both GFS and ECMWF have this wave as a low latitude rider thru MDR with the models not on consensus on intensity and on the movement.Let's see what happens in the next few days.
Loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24
Loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24
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- cycloneye
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in West Africa
EC at 192 hours.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in West Africa
Thanks for starting this, I think this needs to be watched as the 2 major models have at least a tropical storm entering the Caribbean and from there who knows where it goes, could be anywhere between Mexico and The Northeast US
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in West Africa
More shear over the lesser Antilles and just north of Puerto Rico this run compared to the 00z Euro. Think it dies in the eastern Caribbean.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in West Africa
That looks more like an open wave @ 192hrs. rather than a Tropical Storm on the 12z Euro.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in West Africa
Kingarabian wrote:More shear over the lesser Antilles and just north of Puerto Rico this run compared to the 00z Euro. Think it dies in the eastern Caribbean.
You are correct! Now we have the Euro painting an unfavorable environment while the GFS goes nuts(as usual).
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in West Africa
Also to note that the 12z Euro moves it slower compared to the 00z run. Shear goes up from 25ks to 40kts.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in West Africa
The Euro was right about td4 as it always had weak development and killed it while last week the GFS went nuts with it so one would think the Euro might have the best idea with this wave so who knows
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in West Africa
Even if it makes it through the high shear in the eastern Caribbean, there's higher shear in the western Caribbean. But that's still 10 days out, and a lot can change IMO.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in West Africa
What's up with all this shear throughout the Caribbean and into the Central Atlantic? Seems very El Niño-like if you ask me.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in West Africa
TheStormExpert wrote:What's up with all this shear throughout the Caribbean and into the Central Atlantic? Seems very El Niño-like if you ask me.
It's July. Historically, July is not that active in the Atlantic. And Nino 1+2 although not very warm has consistently been at +0.5C so that may be playing a role.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in West Africa
GFS Ensembles.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in West Africa
TheStormExpert wrote:What's up with all this shear throughout the Caribbean and into the Central Atlantic? Seems very El Niño-like if you ask me.
The shear in the Caribbean is usually high this time of year due to the Caribbean LLJ. This doesn't normally subside until September.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in West Africa
emeraldislenc wrote:What is LLJ?
Lower-Level Jetstream; a belt of high winds located in the lower portion of the atmosphere. Can basically "decapitate" TCs, knocking the mid-level circulation and accompanying convection clear off the lower-level circulation center, or LLC.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in West Africa
TheStormExpert wrote:What's up with all this shear throughout the Caribbean and into the Central Atlantic? Seems very El Niño-like if you ask me.
No.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa
The active convection the epac isn't helping shear in the Caribbean either.
Edit:But as shown above, Caribbean shear actually running below average. There's a reason why we don't get many storms like Dennis and Emily.
Edit:But as shown above, Caribbean shear actually running below average. There's a reason why we don't get many storms like Dennis and Emily.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa
Even with the jet, its been ULL after ULL near the Caribbean as Alyono pointed out last week.
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