Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[weathaguyry]

Very good call on the NHC's part to only call 0/20, since model support is quickly diminishing for this!

[weathaguyry]

Now down to 0/10

[TheStormExpert]

One of these days we will see a hurricane in July, just not this year.

[TheStormExpert]

Btw, why does SAL and dry air always peak in July?

Also what caused July of 2008 to have a Cape Verde major along with another hurricane and a TS?

[Ntxw]

Btw, why does SAL and dry air always peak in July?

The North Atlantic Azores high peaks in July and early August with the summer season. At it's greatest strength below the subtropics in the MDR the flow around that high creates strong easterly winds which is 1. A cooling wind and 2. Easterly shear. Waves tends to move too fast for development during this period and dust is blown off Africa via the clockwise flow of the high.

[weathaguyry]

July usually tends to be a snooze fest, in years like 2004, 2012, and 2016 there was no July activity. In 2010 there was only one TD and a TS in July, so we are nowhere abnormally low in terms of activity, and the fact that it is only July 10th and we already had a TS and a TD in the MDR is pretty amazing if you ask me

[storminabox]

IMO....the models are too fickle to put any trust in them until there's something substantial for them to lock on to. Until then, I won't trust any run. One run a hurricane, another run a tropical storm, another run....nothing! It's become very frustrating to me. So I just sit on the sidelines and wait to see what happens down the road. I, for one, refuse to acknowledge any model runs until there's some meat behind it. Again, just my opinion....and thank you for letting me vent a little bit!

I feel like that's a good way to go about this for now

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening Larry,

Did not mean to seem as if I took it as directed at me. I was just puling your chain a bit, yes all we can do is see what the future models and satellite show.

[weathaguyry]

GFS is about to run, are we going to get some monster thing that wipes out a hefty portion of the SEUS, or will we get something that is weak and dies in the ECARIB graveyard? We shall see...

[weathaguyry]

Smaller and less defined at 24hrs. on the GFS

[USTropics]

At 24 hours, the 00z GFS is again trending weaker (more of a stretched out vorticity this run). Here are the last 4 runs of the GFS at 24hrs:

[weathaguyry]

Yep, much weaker at 30 hours, there goes the last bit of support for development

[weathaguyry]

Gone at 48 hours, bravo GFS

[USTropics]

One additional inhibiting factor in the short range that I've noticed on the past few GFS runs (and the hi-rez ECMWF run) is a competing vorticity to the south. You can see it on the GFS run and currently on CIMS's 850mb vorticity map. This wasn't as pronounced on the previous GFS runs that developed the wave as it approached the islands.

[weathaguyry]

That GFS upgrade couldn't come soon enough, this was a HUGE bust for the model

[USTropics]

That GFS upgrade couldn't come soon enough, this was a HUGE bust for the model

But also a big win the for the GFS-Para, which will replace the current GFS operational in less than a week. The GFS couldn't resist blowing up most of the GOM, Florida, and EC (and a few Mexico/Texas runs too) one more time on it's way out

[tarheelprogrammer]

Yeah looks like nothing to see here folks. We could go all of July without Don it looks like.

[Hurricaneman]

GFS fail, can't wait for the upgrade as it seems to have less phantom storms, this was a phantom storm and the silly part is it was a 48hr phantom storm which makes the current version look like a joke and even the Canadian model had little development so we can say the GFS has what looks like a parametric issue

[AutoPenalti]

I cannot wait for GFS-Para upgrade.


#MakeGFSGreatAgain

[Brent]

Just like that the TWO is blank...

Better luck in August