Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[SFLcane]

Trigger happy model... as 57 mentioned earlier this morning not 1 ecmwf ensemble member showed development.

[stormlover2013]

Gfs is getting on my nerves

[Kingarabian]

Well at least the GFS Parallel showed minimum development at best so I'm sure it's a sigh of relief for NCEP.

[LarryWx]

Maybe the Goofy model is finally realizing that its weird backtracking MJO forecast has been wrong?

[storminabox]

Given how persistent the the GFS has been, I'm surprised that it pretty much drops it completely.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Same here, so many runs and now very little. Lets see if the runs later tonight go back to showing a storm.

[Kingarabian]

Same here, so many runs and now very little. Lets see if the runs later tonight go back to showing a storm.

That would be very GFS-esque.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Lol Europeans beat us again. As usual. América seems to be falling further behind. UK met and ECMWF seem light years ahead sometimes.

[LarryWx]

With no hurricane, note how much warmer the 18Z GFS is for mid to late next week in the SE US with strong upper level ridging!

[AutoPenalti]

Not trying to bash the developers of the model infrastructure but at this point are we still going to consider the GFS "world class"?

[Ntxw]

Given how persistent the the GFS has been, I'm surprised that it pretty much drops it completely.

Its always wise to go with caution when a model is on its own without others to support. It's not a complete surprise given this condition.

[Kingarabian]

The GFS Parallel did just fine folks. And that's what we'll be using next week.

[tarheelprogrammer]

The GFS Parallel did just fine folks. And that's what we'll be using next week.

This is true thanks for pointing that out I had forgotten.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

There was a time when the GFS was consider a very good model comparable to the ERUO. How times have changed but I must admit with run after run showing development I allowed myself to get suckered in Lol.

[LarryWx]

There was a time when the GFS was consider a very good model comparable to the ERUO. How times have changed but I must admit with run after run showing development I allowed myself to get suckered in Lol.

IF the GFS brings it back, I predict it will once again sucker in a whole lot of people.

[storminabox]

It looks like a pretty sizeable SAL outbreak is nearing the wave, so I guess it is no surprise that the GFS backed out developing it.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Gee thanks Larry.

[MetroMike]

It looks like a pretty sizeable SAL outbreak is nearing the wave, so I guess it is no surprise that the GFS backed out developing it.

That is not the reason why.

[LarryWx]

Gee thanks Larry.

Lol! Well, maybe not you, as you sound determined to avoid getting suckered in again. I didn't mean you or anyone in particular.

Let's see if it even brings it back. After having it so many runs in a row, that wouldn't be a surprise. Also, even if it does, there's no guarantee that the GFS would be wrong even though that would be likely if it still would be on its own.

Actually, I see that the 18Z GEFS mean still has it similar to the 12Z GEFS.

[nativefloridian]

IMO....the models are too fickle to put any trust in them until there's something substantial for them to lock on to. Until then, I won't trust any run. One run a hurricane, another run a tropical storm, another run....nothing! It's become very frustrating to me. So I just sit on the sidelines and wait to see what happens down the road. I, for one, refuse to acknowledge any model runs until there's some meat behind it. Again, just my opinion....and thank you for letting me vent a little bit!