Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[Sciencerocks]

Bones has declared it DEAD!

[chaser1]

Bones has declared it DEAD!

Or, its just playing possum.......

[TheStormExpert]

Bones has declared it DEAD!

It was never alive to began with, only in the GFS's imagination!

[gatorcane]

While the GFS-op clearly busted, it could be preview of something more realistic that could happen once the SAL starts to let up (usually by mid-August). Wind shear looks very low across the tropical MDR between Lesser Antilles and Africa. Had it not been for that SAL and dry air, the GFS could have been correct. I anticipate some long nights ahead come Aug-October.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like... the "dead" wave wants to try and make a last ditched effort before the graveyard in the carribean.

convection is limited and popcorn but its has been increasing and the broad turning along the wave axis has increased quite a bit since yesterday.

something more to watch since there used to be model support.... chances are low but the environment is pretty good as the dry air has moistened quite a bit. it of course would have to do something in the next 24 to 36 hours before the eastern carrib.

[cycloneye]

Unlocked the thread to get any further comments about this wave although I dont see anything forming from it but can deliver some scattered weak squalls to the islands.Wave axis is around 55W as of this post.

[Aric Dunn]

vorticity from 12 hours ago...



current vorticity..

[NDG]

Nice vorticity with it today but as soon as it enters the Caribbean the hauling low level jet will dissipate the vorticity. I'll say this TW will be a good candidate for the EPAC basin.

[Aric Dunn]

Nice vorticity with it today but as soon as it enters the Caribbean the hauling low level jet will dissipate the vorticity. I'll say this TW will be a good candidate for the EPAC basin.

yeah chances are quite low only has a short amount of time to establish some sort of a surface reflection before carrib to survive... but it is the tropics and you just never know..

honestly I impressed it even came back this much.. it was covered in the SAL and stretched out so much ..

[AtlanticWind]

A tropical wave is just E of the Lesser Antilles with axis
extending from 18N59W to 06N59W, moving W at 20-25 kt within the
last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of neutral to favorable
wind shear S of 16N that along with moderate moist, and upper
level divergence support scattered showers and tstms from 11N to
16N between 56W and 65W.

From NHC discussion

[AtlanticWind]

Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 63W/64W south of
18N. This wave is moving westward at an estimated speed of 19 kt
over the past 24 hours. The wave exhibited a well pronounced
northeast to southeast wind shift in the upper air sounding from
Trinidad this morning at 12Z. Last visible satellite imagery
continued to show a pretty well-defined cloud structure to the
wave, with what appears to be a low-level vorticity maximum on the
southern portion of the wave axis at 12.5N64W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 30 nm of 14N64W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere east of the wave axis. This
wave is forecast to move across the rest of the eastern Caribbean
through Saturday and reach the central Caribbean by Saturday
evening. Increasing moisture along scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will follow the wave. Some of the shower and
thunderstorm activity may contain gusty winds.
From NHC discussion.