Disturbance in SW Caribbean
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marionstorm
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Disturbance in SW Caribbean
There is a large area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean. Shear looks to be high but decreasing. Environment is very moist on water vapor. Is there any chance of a surface low forming with thunderstorms like that over presumably hot water?
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AJC3
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Re: Disturbance in SW Caribbean
marionstorm wrote:There is a large area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean. Shear looks to be high but decreasing. Environment is very moist on water vapor. Is there any chance of a surface low forming with thunderstorms like that over presumably hot water?
There is a semi-permanent area of low pressure in the SW Caribbean. Thunderstorms like to congregate here, especially during the latter half of the season (AUG-SEP-OCT). Surface analysis shows a weak spot low in that area attached to the monsoon trough. I'd expect this to cross CENTAM and emerge over the EPAC in a couple of days. The global models show this occurring, with a weak vortlobe at 850MB crossing over into that basin in about 48 hours. None of the models show any sort of development on either side of CENTAM.
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