Tropical Wave North of Hispaniola

[AtlanticWind]

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
22N64W to 10N65W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear. Abundant
moisture and middle to upper level divergent flow support
scattered to numerous heavy showers and tstms in the NE Caribbean
and adjacent SW N Atlc waters, including Puerto Rico.
From the NWS discussion

Don't think this associated with the remnants of td 4, but there is a decent flare up of convection
North of the Dominican Republic.

[AtlanticWind]

CMC and NAVGEM have a weak low near florida from this wave In 72 to 96 hours

[Aric Dunn]

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
22N64W to 10N65W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear. Abundant
moisture and middle to upper level divergent flow support
scattered to numerous heavy showers and tstms in the NE Caribbean
and adjacent SW N Atlc waters, including Puerto Rico.
From the NWS discussion

Don't think this associated with the remnants of td 4, but there is a decent flare up of convection
North of the Dominican Republic.

I was looking at that last night with the convection that developed. this morning there looks to be some broad weak turning just north of PR. something to keep an eye on.

[AtlanticWind]

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
22N64W to 10N65W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear. Abundant
moisture and middle to upper level divergent flow support
scattered to numerous heavy showers and tstms in the NE Caribbean
and adjacent SW N Atlc waters, including Puerto Rico.
From the NWS discussion

Don't think this associated with the remnants of td 4, but there is a decent flare up of convection
North of the Dominican Republic.

I was looking at that last night with the convection that developed. this morning there looks to be some broad weak turning just north of PR. something to keep an eye on.

I was just looking at small tight turning north of the mona passage,not sure if it is just a transient feature or not.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/mflash-rgb.html

[AtlanticWind]

Blowing up a little this afternoon

[AtlanticWind]

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from 22N, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. A surface trough is along 68W/69W from
18N to 23N. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 17N to 24N between 60W and 75W, including
across parts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands,
and in the Atlantic Ocean. The 24-hour rainfall total for St.
Thomas in the Virgin Islands was 2.17 inches, for the period
ending at 13/1200 UTC. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 10N to 14N between 60W and 67W. The 24-hour rainfall
total for Trinidad was 0.92 inches, for the period ending at
13/1200 UTC.

2pm TWD

[boca]

It looks better than TD#4 did when it was 52 pages long.

[AtlanticWind]

Atmosphere seems pretty juicy around this wave,not sure about shear.

[AtlanticWind]

CMC 00z develops this wave a little.

[AtlanticWind]

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 23N70W to 11N70W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear
N of 15N. Shallow moisture and middle to upper level divergent
flow support scattered to isolated showers, and tstms from 20N to
23N between 67W and 74W.

From NHC discussion

[GCANE]

850mb Vort is improving

[northjaxpro]

This wave indeed looks better than yesterday. Curious to know surface pressures down in the Southeast Bahamas currently.

[wxman57]

Development chances near zero.

[txwatcher91]

Development chances near zero.

RGEM showing possible development, and shear is near 0 in the Bahamas right now. You never know with these homegrown systems. I wouldn’t expect much IF it did develop, but something is definitely possible in a low shear environment imo.

[GCANE]

Very good conditions per latest GFS Skew-T

[Hurricane Andrew]

Development chances near zero.

RGEM showing possible development, and shear is near 0 in the Bahamas right now. You never know with these homegrown systems. I wouldn’t expect much IF it did develop, but something is definitely possible in a low shear environment imo.

Yeah, but its been trending weaker.

[Aric Dunn]

Development chances near zero.

RGEM showing possible development, and shear is near 0 in the Bahamas right now. You never know with these homegrown systems. I wouldn’t expect much IF it did develop, but something is definitely possible in a low shear environment imo.

Yeah, but its been trending weaker.

Vorticity has been increasing for last the 12 hours. look to the west side of the wave already in the se Bahamas for any potential.

[Aric Dunn]

Just been watching the wave in the SE Bahamas and noticed something intriguing. For the most part land and particularly Hispaniola tear apart circulations. However, on occasion land can assist in multiple different ways.

Now what I noticed is just a funny thought rather it being a serious outcome.. but take a look...

The wave in the SE Bahamas has had pretty much ese flow in the low levels so little to no curvature.

What if in this case land helped re direct the wind field do to the convection over land and at exactly the right time to add vorticity and cause rotation that was otherwise not be there?

here is a static image .. no noticeable rotation right ? well run the loop. 50 images full zoom in the same area as this image.. tell me what you see.. ? https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html

[Nimbus]

But if it starts to build a pressure gradient the big bad TUTT will chase it southeast like a hungry spider?