Tropical Disturbance around 45W (Invest 95L is up)

[Weather150]

The GFS, CMC, and UKMET have been hinting at this wave to develop a little, it certainly looks to be a strong wave regardless of development. The 12z Euro came in with tad stronger look.

[AtlanticWind]

Tons or convection out there, I think there could be a small chance for something to get going.

[GCANE]

18Z GFS looks like it may want to develop it.
Tons of LL Convergence and UL Divergence here.

[GCANE]

Strong convergence indicated on MIMIC-TPW

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[tarheelprogrammer]

Yeah it looks like the models are hinting at this forming, and then running into the buzz saw of shear. It is an impressive wave, and it was when it came off of Africa. It would still be impressive none the less.

[RL3AO]

GFS-P jumped on board for the sequel to Bret.

[Sciencerocks]

The Op-Gfs and Para both agree but it is 2-3 degrees north of Bret in the Para.

Within 48-72 hours too so it is close in range.

[RL3AO]

It looks exactly like Bret. Development on the western edge of the monsoon trough and just SE of an upper tropospheric trough. It gets a couple days of enhanced upper divergence thanks to the 200mb jet before running into the 200mb westerlies near the islands.

[Sciencerocks]

Same general pattern but slightly further north in development. With the Ecmwf, Cmc, Ukmet and Gfs on board within the next 48-72 hours the chances looking really good. I'd expect the nhc to highlight it at 8pm...

[Kingarabian]

Yeah I wouldn't look at the Euro for these particular storms. Has a hard time getting this right. GFS does a lot better in these situations.

[AutoPenalti]

Most likely won't develop imo, too much shear once it enters the carribean.

[RL3AO]

Most likely won't develop imo, too much shear once it enters the carribean.

No one is doubting the shear in the Caribbean. If it develops it would be before then.

[AutoPenalti]

Most likely won't develop imo, too much shear once it enters the carribean.

No one is doubting the shear in the Caribbean. If it develops it would be before then.

Is it climo based that we are having so much shear for this month? What's causing it exactly?

[Nimbus]

If this area develops to the intensity of TD4 before the islands it has a chance. Our savior TUTT might not dig far enough south to shear it apart. The waves passing through the Caribbean seem to be under light shear, but a strong TD might survive.

[RL3AO]

Is it climo based that we are having so much shear for this month? What's causing it exactly?

Shear is slightly below the climatological averages in the Caribbean this month. It just goes to show how inhospitable July is.

[Sciencerocks]

Most likely won't develop imo, too much shear once it enters the carribean.

No one is doubting the shear in the Caribbean. If it develops it would be before then.

Is it climo based that we are having so much shear for this month? What's causing it exactly?

It is perfectly normal to have strong shear within the MDR and Caribbean in July. What is causing it? The tutt in the case of the eastern Caribbean.

[RL3AO]

If this area develops to the intensity of TD4 before the islands it has a chance. Our savior TUTT might not dig far enough south to shear it apart. The waves passing through the Caribbean seem to be under light shear, but a strong TD might survive.

If anything, the TUTT might be what gives this life by providing enhanced upper-level divergence. It'll be the 200mb Caribbean westerlies that shear it apart.

[RL3AO]

It is perfectly normal to have strong shear within the MDR and Caribbean in July. What is causing it? The tutt in the case of the eastern Caribbean.

What TUTT in the Caribbean? Can you show us on a map where it is? Not all shear is caused by a TUTT.

[Weather150]

I'm thinking this would be a quick TD if it does get its act together. Like I said above, regardless still going to be a strong wave for the Lesser Antilles.

[gatorcane]

This could very well get a mention by NHC at 8pm EST. Most models show a pretty good vorticity developing before this reaches the Lesser Antilles.