Tropical Disturbance around 45W (Invest 95L is up)

[Sciencerocks]

It is perfectly normal to have strong shear within the MDR and Caribbean in July. What is causing it? The tutt in the case of the eastern Caribbean.

What TUTT in the Caribbean? Can you show us on a map where it is? Not all shear is caused by a TUTT.

It isn't in the caribbean right now as your map shows it around 55 west, but normally it causes trouble for these things. And yes, the westerlies will be the problem with this system.

I was talking in general.

[Weather150]

The NHC has given it a yellow X.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure trough over the tropical central Atlantic Ocean is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although this
system is close to dry air, some slow development is possible over
the next few days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

The NHC has given it a yellow X.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure trough over the tropical central Atlantic Ocean is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although this
system is close to dry air, some slow development is possible over
the next few days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[GCANE]

Looks like the time it gets to mid Carib, mid-levels to the west are forecast to be dry.

[RL3AO]

A decent CCKW passing through the region. Maybe it can give it a little kick to develop in 2 or 3 days.

[Weather150]

Latest Satellite View.

[gatorcane]

Floater:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/886345532951715840

[floridasun78]

so other short live systems as other one???

[Weather150]

Will be interesting to what the 00z models will show.

[Weather150]

This model called the WRF says it should have a decent convection burst come by morning. We'll see if this comes to pass.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017



A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
14N44W to 04N45W, moving westward at 10-15 knots. The wave has
dry Saharan air well to the west of its axis as depicted in the
latest METEOSAT-9 Saharan Air Layer imagery as well to its east.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm
east and 120 nm west of the wave from 09N to 10N. This wave
may possibly acquire more convection early next week with
the possibility of low pressure forming along it.

[Weather150]

[floridasun78]

Caribbean is dead trap for td

[Alyono]

recon possible on Monday

[Weather150]

GFS still keeping it, along with Para.

[Alyono]

they are showing a strong wave. Not a closed TC

I give this a very low chance of developing. However, it may bring wind and rain to the Windward Islands

[cycloneye]

INVEST MISSION
NEAR 12.0N 52.5W AT 17/18Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Para already trending weaker, and by next week it will be the GFS. Atlantic still shut down for now apparently.

[Sciencerocks]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 160552
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure trough over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although this
system is close to dry air, some slow development is possible over
the next few days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart