Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic

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cycloneye
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Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:09 pm

Image



Some models hint on some development on this area located in the monsoon trough.Let's see what happens down the road.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#2 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:12 pm

Very interesting, getting twin storms in the MDR in mid-july, and an overall total of 4 tropical cyclones in the MDR before the end of July would be astonishing, I could already hear the reversal of season cancel posts to active scary season posts in an instant if that happens :D
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:52 pm

A low will be added at the 06z surface analysis.

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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#4 Postby Hammy » Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:54 pm

That is a massive amount of convection--and aren't we in the suppressive phase of the MJO?
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#5 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:08 pm

Hammy wrote:That is a massive amount of convection--and aren't we in the suppressive phase of the MJO?



From the last update the MJO signal is in Phase 3, not sure if that location puts the suppressed side of the MJO over the Atlantic/West Africa.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#6 Postby Weather150 » Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:43 pm

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00z GFS really likes the second wave behind 95L.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#7 Postby AtlanticWind » Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:46 pm

GFS-Para even stronger
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#8 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:50 pm

GFS Parallel likes both
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:51 pm

Much stronger GFS-Para.

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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#10 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:51 pm

Hammy wrote:That is a massive amount of convection--and aren't we in the suppressive phase of the MJO?

MJO is neutral. Strong CCKW just passed by though:

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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#11 Postby Weather150 » Sun Jul 16, 2017 11:00 pm

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Trend has been stronger past couple runs.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#12 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 16, 2017 11:07 pm

Wouldn't be surprised if this one is 96L sometime tomorrow
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#13 Postby abajan » Sun Jul 16, 2017 11:09 pm

I think the 2 AM TWO will mention both 95L and this area of disturbed weather.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#14 Postby Weather150 » Sun Jul 16, 2017 11:15 pm

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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#15 Postby AJC3 » Sun Jul 16, 2017 11:53 pm

There's a sharp, well-defined wind shift embedded within the ITCZ between 36W and 41W and 8N-10N that was captured by earlier ASCAT pass. That's a very healthy area of surface convergence producing all that deep convection. Will it become a separate entity over the course of the next few days?

Stitched ASCAT pass...
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#16 Postby Weather150 » Sun Jul 16, 2017 11:55 pm

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00z HWRF liking the wave behind 95L too.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#17 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Jul 16, 2017 11:56 pm

Hammy wrote:That is a massive amount of convection--and aren't we in the suppressive phase of the MJO?


4, 5, and 6 are suppressive on this side of the world
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#18 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:13 am

not sure why more people are not paying attention this.. not sure if people realize how large this system would become.. lol
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#19 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:18 am

Aric Dunn wrote:not sure why more people are not paying attention this.. not sure if people realize how large this system would become.. lol

Most likely because it's still relatively new, and/or this really is not going to develop since it's about to hit the wall of shear in about a couple of days.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#20 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:22 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:not sure why more people are not paying attention this.. not sure if people realize how large this system would become.. lol

Most likely because it's still relatively new, and/or this really is not going to develop since it's about to hit the wall of shear in about a couple of days.


wall of shear ? where ?
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