Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic

[AJC3]

Has anyone noticed the vortex rollup with four evenly spaced low-mid level vortices to the NE of the stronger one near 8.5N 39W, with the other three near 10N 37W, 13N 32W and 15N 28W?

Pretty neat looking on visible satellite.

[AtlanticWind]

I would think this would have been an invest by now.

[Aric Dunn]

Has anyone noticed the vortex rollup with four evenly spaced low-mid level vortices to the NE of the stronger one near 8.5N 39W, with the other three near 10N 37W, 13N 32W and 15N 28W?

Pretty neat looking on visible satellite.

Yep I mentioned on the previous page


The funny part is a couple days ago i was joking around before DON was anything but the ITCZ. That I thought the entire monsoon trough was just going to start spitting out systems everywhere.. lol

[northjaxpro]

I would think this would have been an invest by now.

It will be designated an invest very soon. This system will be the one to watch long term. Don will run into dry air and shear once it emerges into the Caribbean.

[floridasun78]

I would think this would have been an invest by now.

It will be designated an invest very soon. This system will be the one to watch long term. Don will run into dry air and shear once it emerges into the Caribbean.

i dont see this one be big player because shear and dry area big player will come in aug

[floridasun78]

i surprise not invest nhc busy with don

[otowntiger]

Looks like it is about to go poof- at least for the time being. Convection rapidly diminishing.

[AutoPenalti]

i surprise not invest nhc busy with don

I see no reason why this should be classified as an invest right now, there's no threat to land at the moment, there's no rush.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like it is about to go poof- at least for the time being. Convection rapidly diminishing.

I disagree. Convection will ignite again soon. This system will be around for awhile. Models have developed this in the next few days. I think will have 96L by Thursday at the latest.

[Hammy]

Looks like it is about to go poof- at least for the time being. Convection rapidly diminishing.

I disagree. Convection will ignite again soon. This system will be around for awhile. Models have developed this in the next few days. I think will have 96L by Thursday at the latest.

Is this the same one the GFS runs from a few days ago were taking north of the Caribbean?

[northjaxpro]

Looks like it is about to go poof- at least for the time being. Convection rapidly diminishing.

I disagree. Convection will ignite again soon. This system will be around for awhile. Models have developed this in the next few days. I think will have 96L by Thursday at the latest.

Is this the same one the GFS runs from a few days ago were taking north of the Caribbean?

Yes, I believe so.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is centered over the tropical central Atlantic and
is producing limited showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible over the next few days while
it moves slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[AtlanticWind]

i surprise not invest nhc busy with don

I see no reason why this should be classified as an invest right now, there's no threat to land at the moment, there's no rush.

Deciding to make something an invest is nothing to do whether it is a threat to land
or how busy they are at the NHC.

[Hammy]

i surprise not invest nhc busy with don

I see no reason why this should be classified as an invest right now, there's no threat to land at the moment, there's no rush.

Deciding to make something an invest is nothing to do whether it is a threat to land
or how busy they are at the NHC.

I think if the development chances reach 40% that we'll probably see it declared an invest at that point.

[northjaxpro]

As I pointed out a few posts ago, there has been model support for development the past couple of days, mainly the GFS. I think by Thursday this will be 96L. This system I believe will track north of the Caribbean. This system potentially could be one of these long Cape Verde tropical cyclones to traverse across the North Atlantic. We will be watching this one for quite some time to come.

[TheStormExpert]

As I pointed out a few posts ago, there has been model support for development the past couple of days, mainly the GFS. I think by Thursday this will be 96L. This system I believe will track north of the Caribbean. This system potentially could be one of these long Cape Verde tropical cyclones to traverse across the North Atlantic. We will be watching this one for quite some time to come.

None of the reliable global models hold onto this more than just a few days (if that).

[Aric Dunn]

As I pointed out a few posts ago, there has been model support for development the past couple of days, mainly the GFS. I think by Thursday this will be 96L. This system I believe will track north of the Caribbean. This system potentially could be one of these long Cape Verde tropical cyclones to traverse across the North Atlantic. We will be watching this one for quite some time to come.

None of the reliable global models hold onto this more than just a few days (if that).

nor did those same models even see current TS DON. Models are by their name "model guidance" and are such only as useful as the coding and quality of the data inputed...

[northjaxpro]

I am sticking by my thoughts. I agree with NHC with this system. Slow gradual development potentially over the next 2 to 3 days.

[TheStormExpert]

The environment out ahead of it looks extremely rough. This is likely why models are less enthusiastic about this then they were 24hrs. ago. I know models sometimes tend to get things wrong or miss things but you have an abundance amount of SAL and Dry Air along with Wind Shear.

[Fego]

If I'm in the right topic, this wave is now Invest 96L.