2017 TCRs

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NotoSans
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2017 TCRs

#1 Postby NotoSans » Thu Jul 20, 2017 6:58 am

Last edited by NotoSans on Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:40 pm, edited 12 times in total.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#2 Postby NotoSans » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:39 am

The TCR for TS Calvin of EPAC is now available as well.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP032017_Calvin.pdf
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:49 pm

NotoSans wrote:The TCR for TS Calvin of EPAC is now available as well.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP032017_Calvin.pdf


I didn't see that there on Friday...never seen one appear on a weekend before.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#4 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:01 pm

Speculating on some potential changes that may be implemented or that I might recommend in the post-seasonal analyses:

FRANKLIN: raise peak to 80 knots (90 mph)
GERT: raise peak to 100 knots (115 mph)
HARVEY: tweak pressure at landfall in Texas to 939 mb, reduce winds to depression status for early part of post-Texas reentry into Gulf, show reorganization to tropical storm closer to Louisiana
IRMA: bolster peak to 165 knots (190 mph), lower Inagua (Bahamas) to 130 knots (150 mph), raise Cuba to 145 knots (165 mph), lower Keys to 110 knots (125 mph), raise Keys pressure to 932 mb, increase Marco Island to 105 knots (120 mph)
JOSE: increase peak to 140 knots (160 mph)
KATIA: increase peak to 95 knots (110 mph)
LEE: show 90 knots (105 mph) for early, Cat.-1 portion of track, raise peak to 105 knots (120 mph)
MARIA: increase Guadeloupe to 150 knots (175 mph), raise peak to 160 knots (185 mph)
NATE: decrease Louisiana to 65 knots (75 mph), decrease Mississippi to 55 knots (65 mph)
OPHELIA: raise peak to 110 knots (125 mph)

As a bonus, I might consider deleting CINDY and EMILY from the database, given questionable characteristics.

Adjusted seasonal total: 13 NS / 10 H / 7 MH (not including storms that form than the date of this post)
Last edited by Shell Mound on Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#5 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:11 pm

Mine:
Bret: Possible increase to 45 kts based on 40 kt surface observation after it hit Trinidad. Pressure likely will stay the same
Don: Possibly lowered to 40 kts/1007 mb
Emily: Possible increase to 45 kts/1002 mb
Franklin: Possible increase to 80 kts/981 mb, with slight weakening prior to landfall
Gert: Possible increase to 95 kts/965 mb
Harvey: Possible increase to 120 kts. Pressure remains same
Jose: Possible increase to 140 kts/936 mb
Katia: Possibly lowered to 85 kts/976 mb. Recon never supported an intensity of 90 kt, and the hurricane rapidly weakened before landfall
Lee: possible increase to 105 kts
Ophelia: possible increase to 105 kts
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#6 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 8:34 pm

In terms of hurricane impacts in the US (added to the lists), what I think:

* Harvey - Cat 1 impact for south Texas, cat 4 for central Texas (ATX1, BTX4). The dividing line is Corpus Christi, and I believe cat 1 winds may have reached the most exposed parts of the city.

* Irma - Cat 3 impact for SW Florida, cat 2 for SE Florida and cat 1 for NE Florida (BFL3, CFL2, DFL1). First, that assumes a 110 kt Keys landfall intensity. Second, except for Key Largo all of the Keys are SW Florida in the list; cat 2 conditions likely occurred on that key. The east coast of Florida likely saw cat 1 conditions as far north as Cape Canaveral, if not farther (hence NE Florida) while the west coast likely only saw such up to about Sarasota at the most (NW Florida likely saw strong tropical storm conditions).

* While Jose avoided landfall, it produced low-end TS conditions in SE Massachusetts.

* Although Maria saw major hurricane conditions in PR and USVI, it didn't in the CONUS. It was a low-end TS impact for NC.

* Nate - Cat 1 impact for Louisiana and Mississippi (LA1, MS1). Although the winds likely dropped a bit, it probably produced hurricane conditions in parts of Plaquemines Parish and around Ocean Springs.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#7 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:02 pm

Marco Island may have actually had category 4 impacts. Intensity whilst over the Keys was similar as well. Remember, flight level winds were at 108-109 knots which meant for Irma, a storm with higher SFMR than FL winds, it was 115 kts over its first landfall in the Contiguous United States. Peak while brushing the Antilles may be upgraded to 165 kts and 908 mb perhaps
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#8 Postby J_J99 » Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:37 am

My opinion on what the TCR's could hold. I am an amatuer so I am not the smartest lol.

Bret raised to 45 knots due to damage in Trinidad.
Cindy the same except declared STS before Landfall in LA.
Don a TS 6 hours before but nothing else changes.
Franklin raised to 75 kts.
Gert raised to 100 kts.
Harvey raised to 120 kts at landfall in Rockport. Pressure down to 936 MB. Cat 4 at approx 5 pm. Cat 3 at approx 11 am. Weaker storm inland.
Irma raised to 165 possibly 170 kts at peak. Landfall in Barabuda changed to 165 kts. Landfall in Bahamas changed to 130 kts. Landfall in Cuba to 140 kts. Downgraded to a high Cat 2 near Cuba, intensity kept at 115 kts in the Keys but pressure raised to 930 and raised to either 110-115 kts in Marco Island with 940 Pressure. A Bit Stronger inland. But downgraded to TS faster. 906 peak pressure.
Jose raised to 140 kts. Below Hurricane strength WAYYY earlier.
Katia raised to 95 kts, below hurricane strength at landfall in Mexico..... possibly 45-50 kts.
Lee raised to 90 kts intiial peak intensity. Raised to 110 kts at peak.
Maria raised to 165 kts at peak. The dropsonde seemed to comfirm the winds were astronomically high. Lowered to 125 kts landfall in Puerto Rico. Cat 4 near DR.... weaker near CONUS.Pressure down to 905.
Nate raised to 80 kts peak intensity in gulf. Lowered to 70 kts landfall in Lousisiana and 65 kts in Mississippi.
Ophelia raised to 110 kts peak.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#9 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:27 pm

After a lull due to high hurricane activity, the reports are now being published again. Hurricane Eugene is out.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP052017_Eugene.pdf

The reports for the Atlantic will probably take much longer than the last few years. Will be exciting and interesting reads though.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#10 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:31 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Marco Island may have actually had category 4 impacts. Intensity whilst over the Keys was similar as well. Remember, flight level winds were at 108-109 knots which meant for Irma, a storm with higher SFMR than FL winds, it was 115 kts over its first landfall in the Contiguous United States. Peak while brushing the Antilles may be upgraded to 165 kts and 908 mb perhaps


if anything, the winds at Barbuda and St. Martin will be lowered a little, maybe to the 150-155 kt range. Winds from the aircraft were a little lower at that time than a few hours before and then again when it was striking the VI
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#11 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:46 pm

I think the upgrade of Jose to CAT5 is very much a given. NHC didn't choose to upgrade at the time since recon found evidence of CAT5 windspeed when his appearance has degraded, which likely due to a temporarily dry air intrusion. Jose was almost certainly a CAT5 for several hours before that recon arrived. Satellite signature earlier supported CAT5 as well.

Image
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#12 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 1:47 pm

A new report on a storm in the Atlantic is released! Oh, it's just for the Tropical Depression... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL042017_Four.pdf
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#13 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:23 pm

supercane4867 wrote:I think the upgrade of Jose to CAT5 is very much a given. NHC didn't choose to upgrade at the time since recon found evidence of CAT5 windspeed when his appearance has degraded, which likely due to a temporarily dry air intrusion. Jose was almost certainly a CAT5 for several hours before that recon arrived. Satellite signature earlier supported CAT5 as well.

They should go for 145-150 kts... Interestingly, this would be the first occurrence of two Category 5's coexisting since Ivan and Joan in 1997.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#14 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:48 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:I think the upgrade of Jose to CAT5 is very much a given. NHC didn't choose to upgrade at the time since recon found evidence of CAT5 windspeed when his appearance has degraded, which likely due to a temporarily dry air intrusion. Jose was almost certainly a CAT5 for several hours before that recon arrived. Satellite signature earlier supported CAT5 as well.

They should go for 145-150 kts... Interestingly, this would be the first occurrence of two Category 5's coexisting since Ivan and Joan in 1997.

It would also mark the first such (known) occurrence in the Atlantic basin on record, though reliable data only begin the advent of satellite data in the mid-1960s.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#15 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:56 pm

supercane4867 wrote:I think the upgrade of Jose to CAT5 is very much a given. NHC didn't choose to upgrade at the time since recon found evidence of CAT5 windspeed when his appearance has degraded, which likely due to a temporarily dry air intrusion. Jose was almost certainly a CAT5 for several hours before that recon arrived. Satellite signature earlier supported CAT5 as well.

Image


That image at 1815Z is actually after Recon left the storm, and I believe it peaked at 1800Z as well.

Looking back at Recon data from Jose, there were flagged SFMR's of 148 and 149 kt around 1200Z that day, concurrent with FL winds of 146 kt. The highest unflagged SFMR on that flight was 128 kt on a later pass around 1400Z. Based on those data, I'd go with 135 kt for the intensity at 1200Z with slight weighting towards the flagged data. The following flight had dropsonde and SFMR data both near 135 kt as well at 0000Z.

However, given the satellite signature in between those times, I'd assign a peak intensity at 1800Z of 140 kt.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#16 Postby Alyono » Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:06 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:I think the upgrade of Jose to CAT5 is very much a given. NHC didn't choose to upgrade at the time since recon found evidence of CAT5 windspeed when his appearance has degraded, which likely due to a temporarily dry air intrusion. Jose was almost certainly a CAT5 for several hours before that recon arrived. Satellite signature earlier supported CAT5 as well.

Image


That image at 1815Z is actually after Recon left the storm, and I believe it peaked at 1800Z as well.

Looking back at Recon data from Jose, there were flagged SFMR's of 148 and 149 kt around 1200Z that day, concurrent with FL winds of 146 kt. The highest unflagged SFMR on that flight was 128 kt on a later pass around 1400Z. Based on those data, I'd go with 135 kt for the intensity at 1200Z with slight weighting towards the flagged data. The following flight had dropsonde and SFMR data both near 135 kt as well at 0000Z.

However, given the satellite signature in between those times, I'd assign a peak intensity at 1800Z of 140 kt.


you HAVE to stop relying upon the auto flagging. That auto flagging is far from accurate. The data is perfectly valid as it is not a sudden spike, nor is it incompatible with the flight level winds. The 90% rule is outdated science. We know the flight level to surface winds vary significantly. With Jose, it is likely that surface winds were at least equal to flight level winds. That seems to be common for storms moving westward underneath a ridge
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#17 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 12:22 am

As for the rest of the storms, what I think the real peak intensities will go down as are:

Bret - 40 kt / 1007 mb (same as operational; no data to suggest any change)

Cindy - 55 kt / 991 mb (based on all data sourceswell offshore; reclassified as subtropical before landfall)

Don - 45 kt / 1007 mb (no data to suggest any changes)

Emily - 45 kt / 1005 mb (increased slightly pre-landfall based on surface data)

Franklin - 80 kt / 981 mb (based on SFMR readings, BUT I believe it weakened quite a bit before landfall which I estimate at 65 kt)

Gert - 95 kt / 966 mb (a bit higher than operational based on blend of T5.0 and T5.5 ratings, inconclusive data prevents upgrade to major)

Harvey - 120 kt / 937 mb (based on highest SFMR of 116 before landfall and 113 on back side at landfall when RFQ was onshore)

Irma - 165 kt / 914 mb (based on SFMR readings of 162 and 163 near Barbuda)

Jose - 150 kt / 935 mb (based on SFMR readings of 148 and 149 if deemed accurate; otherwise 140 kt based on satellite signature better than when 135 kt dropsonde and SFMR measured afterward)

Katia - 85 kt / 973 mb (based on interpolation of flights and SFMR readings around 83; operational was 90 kt but subsequent flight only supported cat 1 shortly afterward)

Lee - 105 kt / 958 mb (based on ADT of T5.7)

Maria - 155 kt / 906 mb (based on SFMR reading of 152 and satellite peak between flights)

Nate - 85 kt / 981 mb (based on SFMR reading of 84 - note the pressure and wind did not peak at the same time)

Ophelia - 110 kt / 950 mb (based on ADT of T5.9)

Philippe - 40 kt / 1000 mb (based largely on surface obs; assumes storm became extratropical sooner)
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#18 Postby J_J99 » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:41 am

CrazyC83 wrote:As for the rest of the storms, what I think the real peak intensities will go down as are:

Bret - 40 kt / 1007 mb (same as operational; no data to suggest any change)

Cindy - 55 kt / 991 mb (based on all data sourceswell offshore; reclassified as subtropical before landfall)

Don - 45 kt / 1007 mb (no data to suggest any changes)

Emily - 45 kt / 1005 mb (increased slightly pre-landfall based on surface data)

Franklin - 80 kt / 981 mb (based on SFMR readings, BUT I believe it weakened quite a bit before landfall which I estimate at 65 kt)

Gert - 95 kt / 966 mb (a bit higher than operational based on blend of T5.0 and T5.5 ratings, inconclusive data prevents upgrade to major)

Harvey - 120 kt / 937 mb (based on highest SFMR of 116 before landfall and 113 on back side at landfall when RFQ was onshore)

Irma - 165 kt / 914 mb (based on SFMR readings of 162 and 163 near Barbuda)

Jose - 150 kt / 935 mb (based on SFMR readings of 148 and 149 if deemed accurate; otherwise 140 kt based on satellite signature better than when 135 kt dropsonde and SFMR measured afterward)

Katia - 85 kt / 973 mb (based on interpolation of flights and SFMR readings around 83; operational was 90 kt but subsequent flight only supported cat 1 shortly afterward)

Lee - 105 kt / 958 mb (based on ADT of T5.7)

Maria - 155 kt / 906 mb (based on SFMR reading of 152 and satellite peak between flights)

Nate - 85 kt / 981 mb (based on SFMR reading of 84 - note the pressure and wind did not peak at the same time)

Ophelia - 110 kt / 950 mb (based on ADT of T5.9)

Philippe - 40 kt / 1000 mb (based largely on surface obs; assumes storm became extratropical sooner)

What is your opinion on the landfall intensities of Maria in Puerto Rico and Irma in the Keys/Marco Island?

Found this to be really informative. :)
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#19 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:27 pm

I'll give my opinion of Irma in Florida and Maria.
Maria landfall in Puerto rico probably 130 knots. It "tighten" up as it was making landfall and the eyewalls connected which suggest that all weakening had stopped.

Irma was probably 115 knots at keys landfall and 100 knots at Marco island...This is supported at Marco island by the 111 mph sustain wind on that island.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#20 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:33 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:I'll give my opinion of Irma in Florida and Maria.
Maria landfall in Puerto rico probably 130 knots. It "tighten" up as it was making landfall and the eyewalls connected which suggest that all weakening had stopped.

Irma was probably 115 knots at keys landfall and 100 knots at Marco island...This is supported at Marco island by the 111 mph sustain wind on that island.

I've heard despite structure degradation, a pro met said Irma could be upgraded to 115 kts at its Marco Island landfall
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