2017 TCRs

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: 2017 TCRs

#21 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:03 pm

Does anyone know why Emily was classified as a tropical cyclone? It was co-located with a mid-level trough, and there was a surface temperature/dew gradient.

I'm not critiquing the National Hurricane Center's decision, but I'm just curious about the rationale in this case.
0 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2017 TCRs

#22 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:03 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:I'll give my opinion of Irma in Florida and Maria.
Maria landfall in Puerto rico probably 130 knots. It "tighten" up as it was making landfall and the eyewalls connected which suggest that all weakening had stopped.

Irma was probably 115 knots at keys landfall and 100 knots at Marco island...This is supported at Marco island by the 111 mph sustain wind on that island.


I agree with 130 kt for Maria at landfall, although a case could be made for the operational 135 or a bit lower at 125. The pressure was still filling up to landfall (my best guess right now based on storm chaser data and analysis is 921 mb, which is an increase from 917 mb at last Recon pass), but the radar presentation suggests that it was largely steady in the last 2-3 hours after the SFMR of 133 (IIRC) which supported the operational intensity. Assuming slight weakening after the last full Recon pass is the basis for the 130 kt intensity. BTW, I estimate Maria was 150 kt at Dominica landfall due to continued intensification up to landfall and SFMR supported 145 a couple hours before.

I would go a bit lower - 110 kt - at Keys landfall, as the highest SFMR I saw in that period was 108 (although shoaling might make it uncertain) and the only reading supporting cat 4 was nearly 6 hours earlier. As far as Marco Island, that same surface observation is the basis for my estimate of 105 kt assuming stronger winds were occurring in the Everglades.

As for Harvey, its landfall intensity will almost certainly be its peak intensity, as all observations suggest it was intensifying right up to landfall.
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneBelle
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 974
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re: 2017 TCRs

#23 Postby HurricaneBelle » Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:17 am

Shell Mound wrote:Does anyone know why Emily was classified as a tropical cyclone? It was co-located with a mid-level trough, and there was a surface temperature/dew gradient.

I'm not critiquing the National Hurricane Center's decision, but I'm just curious about the rationale in this case.


Emily broke off from the trough and dived ESE. It was a small feature, but technically a TC.
0 likes   

J_J99
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 68
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Mar 09, 2016 9:43 pm
Location: Cincinnati, OH

Re: 2017 TCRs

#24 Postby J_J99 » Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:27 am

Sciencerocks wrote:I'll give my opinion of Irma in Florida and Maria.
Maria landfall in Puerto rico probably 130 knots. It "tighten" up as it was making landfall and the eyewalls connected which suggest that all weakening had stopped.

Irma was probably 115 knots at keys landfall and 100 knots at Marco island...This is supported at Marco island by the 111 mph sustain wind on that island.

I would agree with the Keys, I dont think it was below a Category 4 at landfall. Marco Island I would have debate with, it defnitely was ALOT stronger than the advisory was showing. Maria was defnintely stablizing and slightly strenghtenign up to landfall as the inner eyewall had all but collapsed and the outer eyewall was taking over and looking quite nasty on radar.
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:I'll give my opinion of Irma in Florida and Maria.
Maria landfall in Puerto rico probably 130 knots. It "tighten" up as it was making landfall and the eyewalls connected which suggest that all weakening had stopped.

Irma was probably 115 knots at keys landfall and 100 knots at Marco island...This is supported at Marco island by the 111 mph sustain wind on that island.

I've heard despite structure degradation, a pro met said Irma could be upgraded to 115 kts at its Marco Island landfall

I would agree with the pro met, the 115 kts seems fair for the Marco Island landfall, the wind was defintely much higher than expected and the eyewall seemed to be strengthening up to landfall.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: 2017 TCRs

#25 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:38 pm

The report for Tropical Storm Jova is complete.
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2017 TCRs

#26 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 22, 2017 12:54 pm

Adrian and Dora are now out.

Dora's peak intensity is highly uncertain - the human Dvorak estimates were 75-80 kt, while the ADT supported 105-110 kt. (They compromised with 90 kt - higher than operational but lower than you could make an argument for.)
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9856
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: 2017 TCRs

#27 Postby Blown Away » Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:24 pm

How long before Irma?
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2017 TCRs

#28 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Nov 23, 2017 4:12 pm

Blown Away wrote:How long before Irma?

Probably not until February/March or maybe even April
2 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: 2017 TCRs

#29 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Nov 24, 2017 12:56 pm

90 kt seems like a fine peak intensity for Dora. Most of the microwave estimates were more in line with subjective values. ADT was more or less on an island with its intensity estimates.
1 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2017 TCRs

#30 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:21 pm

Blown Away wrote:How long before Irma?


I doubt any of the "big 3" will be out before February at the earliest. Maria might be the first of the big ones done since there is less data to work with from the islands.
3 likes   

NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1366
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: 2017 TCRs

#31 Postby NotoSans » Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:55 pm

0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 TCRs

#32 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:40 pm

Hurricane KATIA is up. Peak was at 90kts.

Code: Select all

5 / 1200 22.2 97.2 1010 25 tropical depression
05 / 1800 22.4 97.0 1008 30 "
06 / 0000 22.4 96.7 1008 30 "
06 / 0600 22.2 96.4 1006 35 tropical storm
06 / 1200 22.0 95.8 1004 45 "
06 / 1800 21.8 95.2 992 65 hurricane
07 / 0000 21.7 94.9 989 70 "
07 / 0600 21.6 94.6 989 70 "
07 / 1200 21.6 94.6 982 70 "
07 / 1800 21.6 94.6 982 70 "
08 / 0000 21.5 95.0 982 75 "
08 / 0600 21.4 95.3 977 80 "
08 / 1200 21.1 95.7 973 85 "
08 / 1800 21.1 96.2 972 90 "
09 / 0000 20.8 96.9 988 70 "
09 / 0600 20.3 97.4 1001 35 tropical storm
09 / 1200 20.1 97.7 1004 30 tropical depression
09 / 1800 dissipated
09 / 0300 20.6 97.1 990 65 landfall at Tecolutla
08 / 1800 21.1 96.2 972 90


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132017_Katia.pdf
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 TCRs

#33 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:49 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane KATIA,TD ELEVEN-E,TS SELMA are up

#34 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:57 pm

Still think 90 kt is probably generous for Katia’s peak intensity. It did peak between flights but it essentially collapsed prior to landfall. I’d say 85 kt would have been a better estimate even though it did have a distinct eye for a brief period.
0 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane KATIA,TD ELEVEN-E,TS SELMA are up

#35 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:44 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Still think 90 kt is probably generous for Katia’s peak intensity. It did peak between flights but it essentially collapsed prior to landfall. I’d say 85 kt would have been a better estimate even though it did have a distinct eye for a brief period.


I agree 90 kt is probably generous, since the difference in structure was not too significant and the next flight found a much weaker storm. I'd have probably had the peak of 85 kt as well (as supported by the SFMR reading), and that would have been at 1200Z. I'd have either left it alone or dropped it to 80 kt at 1800Z, as Katia ran well below Dvorak at 0000Z and the next flight - the landfall intensity of 65 kt appears very reasonable.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 TCRs

#36 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:14 pm

Tropical Storm Ramon report is up.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP192017_Ramon.pdf
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2017 TCRs

#37 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:37 pm

I think we might see a few more shorter ones come out before Christmas, maybe a couple more of the pre-Harvey storms, and perhaps Philippe or Rina. If I were to guess, the "big 3" will be staggered - about a month apart starting in late January.
2 likes   

J_J99
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 68
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Mar 09, 2016 9:43 pm
Location: Cincinnati, OH

Re: 2017 TCRs

#38 Postby J_J99 » Wed Dec 20, 2017 1:19 am

It took us a while to even see Matthews from last year, I think it was only around early April until it was finally released?
My guess would be this. All the TCRs will be released one by one starting with the storms that did not do too much and did not have complex paths and damage.

Harvey may be the first of the "Big Three" we see from the NHC due to its relatively shorter path and less complexity compared to Irma and Maria. Only thing that may set it back would be accounting for all of the horrific damage it did in Texas. IMHO it will be upgraded slightly to 120 - 125 kts max with most of its right front quadrant on land when the HHs surveyed it around landfall and possibly 936-935 MB?

Irma will probably be last IMHO due to the shear complexity of its path, just how many nations it affected and its pure destruction in the Carribean, Cuba and extreme damage in the Florida Keys and Florida. Maybe a higher peak intensity and Cat5 hours sooner? Then I think its Florida landfall in the Keys will be kept at same intensity(We never heard anything about that dropsonde that recorded 148 mph winds so maybe higher if that was ever vertified?) and possibly a higher intensity for its Marco Island landfall (110 kts 115 kts max) at 935 MB? Flooding in Jacksonville was just catastrophic and the storm was just absolutely gigantic.

Maria will probably be after Harvey and Jose (which I FULLY expect to be upgraded to a Cat 5 at its peak) but before Irma. It demolished the Southern part of Dominica, did horrific damage in Puerto Rico that caused a humanitarian crisis not experienced in the US since Katrina. Death toll I am hoping the NHC will provide us with an accurate assessment of the amount of deaths since local officals refuse to.

Those are my opinions about what will come from the TCRs and possibly when.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 TCRs

#39 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 21, 2017 12:45 pm

Tropical Storm Lidia report is up.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP142017_Lidia.pdf
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2017 TCRs

#40 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jan 01, 2018 7:38 pm

Usually, a lot of TCRs come out in January, so we'll probably see several released over the next few weeks.
0 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: jhpigott, KirbyDude25, NotSparta and 73 guests