2017 TCRs

[Shell Mound]

List of costliest U.S. cyclones has been updated. Normalized to 2017 dollars, Harvey is second to Katrina ($125 billion vs. $160 billion) and Irma is in 4th place, just above Andrew (92). That's for the contiguous U.S. states. If you include PR and USVI, then Maria ranks 3rd with $90 billion in damage and Irma drops to 5th behind Sandy.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/UpdatedCostliest.pdf

Based on that list, the NHC seems to be set to keep Irma and Maria as Cat-4 cyclones for their respective landfalls in FL and PR. (Note that the SSHS category for each is "4.") I'm assuming that, since the previous version of the list (2010) was completed post-TCRs, the categories herein should reflect the storms' designations at landfall in the soon-to-be-released TCRs for Irma and Maria. If this is the case, then 2017 is officially the only Atlantic season on record to feature two Cat-4+ landfalls in the lower forty-eight states. It is also the first year since 1992 to feature three or more Cat-4+ hits nationwide, inclusive of territories in both the Atlantic and Pacific; besides Andrew, 1992 featured Iniki in HI and Typhoon Omar in Guam. Final note: no other season on record featured three of the top-five costliest U.S. hurricanes at once. That alone makes 2017 one for the records.

[Alyono]

irma in the VI and PR is missing from the list. Damage was far more than 2 billion in the VI alone

[Alyono]

also, that list is not normalization, or else Miami/Pensacola would remain number 1. It is simply inflation adjusted

I believe Harvey would be on par damage wise with the 1900 Galveston hurricane

I did a quick mental calculation using the normalized data from 2010. It seems as if that list would go as follows

1. Miami/Pensacola
2. Katrina
3. Puerto Rico / Lake Okeechobee (we know from maria what a cat 4/5 would do to Puerto Rico, so I assigned 90 billion to that landfall and added to the mainland landfall)
4. 1900 Galveston
5. Harvey
6. 1915 Galveston
7. Maria

Seems Houston is not in the best place, given that 3 of the top 7 have occurred there. And they were a last minute wobble away from having another entry in the form of Ike ending up in the top 7

[Alyono]

List of costliest U.S. cyclones has been updated. Normalized to 2017 dollars, Harvey is second to Katrina ($125 billion vs. $160 billion) and Irma is in 4th place, just above Andrew (92). That's for the contiguous U.S. states. If you include PR and USVI, then Maria ranks 3rd with $90 billion in damage and Irma drops to 5th behind Sandy.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/UpdatedCostliest.pdf

Based on that list, the NHC seems to be set to keep Irma and Maria as Cat-4 cyclones for their respective landfalls in FL and PR. (Note that the SSHS category for each is "4.") I'm assuming that, since the previous version of the list (2010) was completed post-TCRs, the categories herein should reflect the storms' designations at landfall in the soon-to-be-released TCRs for Irma and Maria. If this is the case, then 2017 is officially the only Atlantic season on record to feature two Cat-4+ landfalls in the lower forty-eight states. It is also the first year since 1992 to feature three or more Cat-4+ hits nationwide, inclusive of territories in both the Atlantic and Pacific; besides Andrew, 1992 featured Iniki in HI and Typhoon Omar in Guam. Final note: no other season on record featured three of the top-five costliest U.S. hurricanes at once. That alone makes 2017 one for the records.

the season likely joined 1992 as the only year to have a cat 3, 4, and 5 hit the USA. Irma almost certainly will be recorded as a cat 5 direct hit on the USVI

[cycloneye]

We haved been focusing on the biggies that caused plenty of damage and lives lost but one system that has been forgotten is Hurricane LEE in open waters of the subtropical Atlantic. I think it will be a interesting report as the system splited from one low to a new one.

From September 22 at 5 AM EDT advisory discussion:

The mid-level circulation from Lee separated from the low-level
center two days ago and moved northward around the eastern
periphery of a large upper-level trough. A large convective burst
over the mid-level center yesterday then caused a new low-level
center to develop while it moved on the northern side of the upper
trough.

[Chris90]

I'm looking forward to Lee as well.

The report I really want to see is Jose. I'm looking forward to finding out whether they up it to a Cat 5 or not. I personally think the data supports the upgrade, but we'll see with their report.

[CrazyC83]

:uarrow: I'm looking forward to Lee as well.

The report I really want to see is Jose. I'm looking forward to finding out whether they up it to a Cat 5 or not. I personally think the data supports the upgrade, but we'll see with their report.

That will be interesting on Lee as I never thought of that - should it really have been two separate systems?

I think most of us agree that Jose will be upgraded, but that will be up to the NHC to decide - it really depends on if they determine the supporting SFMR readings to be reliable (I don't see why they wouldn't be in the open Atlantic).

[TheStormExpert]

List of costliest U.S. cyclones has been updated. Normalized to 2017 dollars, Harvey is second to Katrina ($125 billion vs. $160 billion) and Irma is in 4th place, just above Andrew (92). That's for the contiguous U.S. states. If you include PR and USVI, then Maria ranks 3rd with $90 billion in damage and Irma drops to 5th behind Sandy.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/UpdatedCostliest.pdf

Based on that list, the NHC seems to be set to keep Irma and Maria as Cat-4 cyclones for their respective landfalls in FL and PR. (Note that the SSHS category for each is "4.") I'm assuming that, since the previous version of the list (2010) was completed post-TCRs, the categories herein should reflect the storms' designations at landfall in the soon-to-be-released TCRs for Irma and Maria. If this is the case, then 2017 is officially the only Atlantic season on record to feature two Cat-4+ landfalls in the lower forty-eight states. It is also the first year since 1992 to feature three or more Cat-4+ hits nationwide, inclusive of territories in both the Atlantic and Pacific; besides Andrew, 1992 featured Iniki in HI and Typhoon Omar in Guam. Final note: no other season on record featured three of the top-five costliest U.S. hurricanes at once. That alone makes 2017 one for the records.

the season likely joined 1992 as the only year to have a cat 3, 4, and 5 hit the USA. Irma almost certainly will be recorded as a cat 5 direct hit on the USVI

Mind telling me what storm made landfall as what? Harvey made landfall as a 4, Irma was a 4 for landfall on the FL Keys then a 3 in SW FL. Maria was AT LEAST a upper end 4 for Puerto Rico. Anything I'm missing?

[Alyono]

Based on that list, the NHC seems to be set to keep Irma and Maria as Cat-4 cyclones for their respective landfalls in FL and PR. (Note that the SSHS category for each is "4.") I'm assuming that, since the previous version of the list (2010) was completed post-TCRs, the categories herein should reflect the storms' designations at landfall in the soon-to-be-released TCRs for Irma and Maria. If this is the case, then 2017 is officially the only Atlantic season on record to feature two Cat-4+ landfalls in the lower forty-eight states. It is also the first year since 1992 to feature three or more Cat-4+ hits nationwide, inclusive of territories in both the Atlantic and Pacific; besides Andrew, 1992 featured Iniki in HI and Typhoon Omar in Guam. Final note: no other season on record featured three of the top-five costliest U.S. hurricanes at once. That alone makes 2017 one for the records.

the season likely joined 1992 as the only year to have a cat 3, 4, and 5 hit the USA. Irma almost certainly will be recorded as a cat 5 direct hit on the USVI

Mind telling me what storm made landfall as what? Harvey made landfall as a 4, Irma was a 4 for landfall on the FL Keys then a 3 in SW FL. Maria was AT LEAST a upper end 4 for Puerto Rico. Anything I'm missing?

did you miss where I said Irma for the USVI was a 5?

[galaxy401]

Irwin and Otis have been released.

Otis was briefly a TS during its long stint as a TD.

[CyclonicFury]

Kenneth is out. Pressure lowered to 951.

[1900hurricane]

Add Fernanda to the EPac Tropical Cyclone Report parade.

[cycloneye]

Impressive images of Major Hurricane Fernanda that thankfully was a big fish in open waters.

[galaxy401]

I don't think that first image is Fernanda. It's dated September 5th so that's probably Irma.

[cycloneye]

I don't think that first image is Fernanda. It's dated September 5th so that's probably Irma.

Yep.Changed it to Fernanda closeup of eye.

[Alyono]

something to look for in the Irma report. Some reports of wind gusts near 200 mph from the NE Caribbean

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... a7e64146d0

[CrazyC83]

something to look for in the Irma report. Some reports of wind gusts near 200 mph from the NE Caribbean

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... a7e64146d0

That may even be on the low end, since I read it was below 10 m elevation and also there was a brief pause in data when the reading maxed the scale at 200 mph. It likely is very reasonable too.

[cycloneye]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten report is up. Is the first ever report on a PTC.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Cindy report is up.

[CrazyC83]

They are coming out fast now.

Re: Cindy, it was difficult for sure to analyze its intensity with a wide variety of data. Given the SFMR and low-res ASCAT data, 55 kt may have been appropriate but there is definitely uncertainty.