2017 TCRs

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Re: 2017 TCRs

#81 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:09 pm

Philippe was just released.

Its track was shortened greatly, as reanalysis found that it dissipated over Cuba, not in the western Atlantic, and is no longer considered a TS for Florida. A new low formed shortly thereafter which was deemed unrelated to Philippe. Peak intensity dropped to 35 kt.

So, instead of 6 storms hitting the CONUS, it is now 5 storms (MH Harvey and Irma, H Nate and TS Cindy and Emily).
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#82 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:46 pm

Well the ACE for the Atlantic took a bit of a hit from that. So Philippe was a TS for only 6 hours. Has there been a shorter lifespan before?
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#83 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:15 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Well the ACE for the Atlantic took a bit of a hit from that. So Philippe was a TS for only 6 hours. Has there been a shorter lifespan before?

Six hours is pretty much the shortest duration possible for a tropical storm since it is one best track point. Overall though, ACE didn't drop as much as you might think (less than one unit). The weaker and shorter lived systems don't generate much ACE to begin with, so changes with these systems, even drastic ones, don't reflect all that much in the season totals.

Here is the changes between the operational and final best tracks so far this season. As it stands right now, season ACE has only dropped about 0.1 units.

Image

Note - although some sources use subtropical systems in ACE and other calculations, I do not.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#84 Postby Hammy » Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:39 pm

So this leaves only two more tropical storm reports for this year--Bret and Emily.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#85 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:46 pm

I fully expect the next NAtl report released to be Franklin or Emily simply because those are the two I am least anticipating. : P
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#86 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:11 pm

1900hurricane wrote:I fully expect the next NAtl report released to be Franklin or Emily simply because those are the two I am least anticipating. : P


We might get a rush now before the rest of the big ones, or there might be a break before we might get Irma or Maria (I'd expect the next of those in late February).
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#87 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:14 pm

I'm also wondering - are there any potential candidates for an unnamed storm? I know PTC 10 was clearly never a TC.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#88 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:20 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:I fully expect the next NAtl report released to be Franklin or Emily simply because those are the two I am least anticipating. : P


We might get a rush now before the rest of the big ones, or there might be a break before we might get Irma or Maria (I'd expect the next of those in late February).

I'm thinking that Emily, Gert, and/or Lee is most likely to be released within the upcoming week or so. Those storms produced minimal impacts and/or did not affect land. Afterward, I fully expect the TCR for either Irma or Jose to be made public, given that the NHC has probably made internal decisions about these storms' tracks and intensities already. For instance, Jose looks like a clear-cut upgrade to Cat-5 status, based on solid evidence from recon (at least 135 knots, possibly up to 145 knots) and earlier, pre-recon, peak satellite estimates; the final peak will likely be either 140 or 150 knots, depending on how the SFMR data are weighted. Irma's intensities should require only fairly minor adjustments, even over the Lesser Antilles; there isn't any real evidence for a peak higher than 160 knots, and the evidence solidly supports 150 to 155 knots through the Leeward Islands. There also shouldn't be major changes to the portions of the track over the Bahamas, Cuba, and FL. Recon supported Cat-5 at the landfall on the northern coast of Cuba, and based on the revised list of costliest hurricanes, Irma should retain its 115-knot (Cat-4) intensity over the FL Keys, with perhaps a minor upward adjustment (from 100 to 105 knots) over mainland SW FL. Given its later but high impact, plus data to be analysed (not least uncertainties about its direct death toll), Maria will probably come out later than Irma or Jose. Ditto for Franklin, Nate, and Ophelia.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#89 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:10 pm

Tropical Storm Pilar is up.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#90 Postby Alyono » Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:11 am

Hilary has been issued
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#91 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:35 pm

Postseason revisions in the EPac have helped to push season ACE to just above 100 units so far, pending any further revisions.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#92 Postby Dean_175 » Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:15 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Philippe was just released.

Its track was shortened greatly, as reanalysis found that it dissipated over Cuba, not in the western Atlantic, and is no longer considered a TS for Florida. A new low formed shortly thereafter which was deemed unrelated to Philippe. Peak intensity dropped to 35 kt.

So, instead of 6 storms hitting the CONUS, it is now 5 storms (MH Harvey and Irma, H Nate and TS Cindy and Emily).



Interesting. Anyone have an idea what would happen if they had to drop the peak intensity of a named storm to below the 35kt mark-- meaning a mistakenly named system that was only a depression?
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#93 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:57 pm

Dean_175 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Philippe was just released.

Its track was shortened greatly, as reanalysis found that it dissipated over Cuba, not in the western Atlantic, and is no longer considered a TS for Florida. A new low formed shortly thereafter which was deemed unrelated to Philippe. Peak intensity dropped to 35 kt.

So, instead of 6 storms hitting the CONUS, it is now 5 storms (MH Harvey and Irma, H Nate and TS Cindy and Emily).



Interesting. Anyone have an idea what would happen if they had to drop the peak intensity of a named storm to below the 35kt mark-- meaning a mistakenly named system that was only a depression?


It would be a named TD I believe. It came close to happening in 2010 with TS Gaston, which the TCR generously kept as a storm despite admitting it probably didn't reach that intensity.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#94 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:12 pm

Still 10 Atlantic TCRs and 3 EPAC TCRs left and it is February 18. In the past NHC has finished all or most of their TCRs by now. They are quite a bit behind schedule this year. I think Maria will be the last TCR and it may not be out until April or May.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#95 Postby Hammy » Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:55 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Dean_175 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Philippe was just released.

Its track was shortened greatly, as reanalysis found that it dissipated over Cuba, not in the western Atlantic, and is no longer considered a TS for Florida. A new low formed shortly thereafter which was deemed unrelated to Philippe. Peak intensity dropped to 35 kt.

So, instead of 6 storms hitting the CONUS, it is now 5 storms (MH Harvey and Irma, H Nate and TS Cindy and Emily).



Interesting. Anyone have an idea what would happen if they had to drop the peak intensity of a named storm to below the 35kt mark-- meaning a mistakenly named system that was only a depression?


It would be a named TD I believe. It came close to happening in 2010 with TS Gaston, which the TCR generously kept as a storm despite admitting it probably didn't reach that intensity.


Would've happened with Gabrielle in 2013 had it not regenerated--NHC reduced the initial intensity to 30kt post-season.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#96 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:12 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Still 10 Atlantic TCRs and 3 EPAC TCRs left and it is February 18. In the past NHC has finished all or most of their TCRs by now. They are quite a bit behind schedule this year. I think Maria will be the last TCR and it may not be out until April or May.


I'm thinking they are working on Irma right now then...I'd guess it would be out near the end of February, followed by a flood of smaller ones.

If I were to guess the remaining order:

* Irma (get a 2nd big one out) - late February
* Rest of EPAC, plus other shorter ones like Bret, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Lee and Ophelia - end of February or early March
* Medium-length ones in Jose and Nate - mid to late March
* Maria last - sometime in April, a goal should be before the WMO TCP
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#97 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 8:52 pm

We are now in March and no reports have been released lately. Not even halfway through with the Atlantic too.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#98 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:48 pm

1900hurricane wrote:I fully expect the next NAtl report released to be Franklin or Emily simply because those are the two I am least anticipating. : P

Well, I would have preferred these reports over none in the timespan since this post. : P
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#99 Postby NotoSans » Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:26 am

Lee has been released. Peak intensity remains at 100 kt.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142017_Lee.pdf
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#100 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:34 am

NotoSans wrote:Lee has been released. Peak intensity remains at 100 kt.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142017_Lee.pdf


TAFB only supported T5.0 (90 kt) so that is likely why they kept it there. I know SAB was T5.5 and CIMSS was around T5.7.
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