2017 TCRs

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116622
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 TCRs

#161 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 05, 2018 1:06 pm

Tropical Storm GREG report is up.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

NotoSans
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 977
Age: 19
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: 2017 TCRs

#162 Postby NotoSans » Thu Apr 05, 2018 1:21 pm

IMO Gert was quite likely to be a major at one point given its fast motion enhancing the winds, the low bias of Dvorak estimates at higher latitudes and AMSU estimates supporting an intensity of around 100 kt. But I would say 95 kt is a good compromise by the NHC as there was no conclusive evidence supporting an upgrade to major.
4 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the RSMC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116622
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 TCRs

#163 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:09 pm

Hurricane MAX report is up. Formed from same wave that spawned Jose.
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

NotoSans
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 977
Age: 19
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: 2017 TCRs

#164 Postby NotoSans » Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:13 pm

All EPAC reports have been released and there are only four ATL reports left, namely Emily, Maria, Ophelia and Nate.
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the RSMC and NWS products.

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1478
Age: 24
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: 2017 TCRs

#165 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:39 pm

Greg apparently is the same system that spawned that TD in the Atlantic as well. Max is slightly stronger in the report as well.

Glad the Pacific is finished now.
2 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27556
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2017 TCRs

#166 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Apr 05, 2018 3:21 pm

Regarding Gert, I agree. 95 kt seems most reasonable - the ADT may have run too high there (it supported up to 115 kt at one point) so the subjective numbers and AMSU provide better estimates. It's possible it was briefly a major, but without conclusive evidence we will never know.
1 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27556
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2017 TCRs

#167 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 08, 2018 8:59 pm

I know this probably isn't the best place for this thought, but it came up in the Katia --> Otis discussion.

One thing I would change in the operational plans is that if the low-level remnants of an Atlantic storm (whether an intact TC or not) cross into the EPAC (or vice versa) and redevelop, it would keep the originally assigned name from the other basin. Thoughts of that?

If those rules were applied in 2017, Otis would have still been named Katia.
2 likes   

User avatar
Chris90
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 304
Age: 29
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2017 9:36 pm

Re: 2017 TCRs

#168 Postby Chris90 » Sun Apr 08, 2018 9:06 pm

:uarrow: I agree completely. It's always been weird to me that a storm will degenerate back into a wave, and then if it establishes a circulation again, they just start issuing advisories again using the same name. If a storm does that and then doesn't redevelop a circulation again until the Epac, they rename it. I feel like they need to be a little more consistent with it. The requirements for using the same name seem much more lenient for storms that stay in the ATL.
1 likes   
Goodbye to a record setting winter, hello springtime severe season! :sun:

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116622
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane MARIA report is up

#169 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:07 am

MARIA report is up.Landfall intensity in Puerto Rico's landfall was 135kts.

The hurricane weakened somewhat before its landfall
on that island due to the eyewall replacement, but also grew in size. Maria’s center crossed the
southeast coast of Puerto Rico near Yabucoa around 1015 UTC 20 September, and the
hurricane’s maximum winds at that time were near 135 kt, i.e., just below the threshold of category
5 intensity.

The landfall intensity of the cyclone in Puerto Rico, 135 kt, is based on an extrapolation of
the weakening trend noted in the aircraft data after the eyewall replacement began several hours
earlier. There were no believable Doppler-derived winds from the San Juan WSR-88D radar that
supported a higher intensity. It should be noted, however, that in Puerto Rico, winds of category
5 intensity were almost certainly felt at some elevated locations on the island.


Image

Image
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

BadLarry95
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 20
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:40 pm

Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane MARIA report is up

#170 Postby BadLarry95 » Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:11 am

Emily also posted. Winds upped to 60mph. Rather impressive given she made landfall a few hours after forming
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116622
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane MARIA report is up / TS EMILY is also up

#171 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:33 am

I can say that already this is in the news here and many dont believe it was a 4 at landfall. Maybe,they will do the upgrade in the next few years.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116622
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane MARIA report is up / TS EMILY is also up

#172 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:42 am

IMO,regardless it was a cat 4 or cat 5, Puerto Rico was devastated and almost 7 months after it struck,we are still in the rebuilding phase with many thousands still without power and many homes still with damaged roofs with the blue tarps.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 838
Age: 20
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane MARIA report is up / TS EMILY and Hurricane NATE are also up

#173 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:49 am

The last remaining report left is Ophelia.
1 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116622
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane MARIA report is up / TS EMILY and Hurricane NATE are also up

#174 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:50 am

Hurricane NATE report is also up.Peak intensity was 80 kts.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27556
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2017 TCRs: Tropical Storm EMILY / Hurricane MARIA / Hurricane NATE reports are up

#175 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:17 am

The damage numbers from Maria are incredible.

$1.3B of damage on Dominica, population 75,000, is more than double the GDP of the country. It was as if an intense tornado crossed the island, while producing 20 inches of rain at the same time.

$90B of damage on an island of about 3.3 million people - more than 15 times the next costliest storm (adjusted for inflation). The same rate of damage in Florida would be over $700 billion.
1 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6960
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: 2017 TCRs: Tropical Storm EMILY / Hurricane MARIA / Hurricane NATE reports are up

#176 Postby Alyono » Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:31 am

CrazyC83 wrote:The damage numbers from Maria are incredible.

$1.3B of damage on Dominica, population 75,000, is more than double the GDP of the country. It was as if an intense tornado crossed the island, while producing 20 inches of rain at the same time.

$90B of damage on an island of about 3.3 million people - more than 15 times the next costliest storm (adjusted for inflation). The same rate of damage in Florida would be over $700 billion.


and t think, the eyewall missed San Juan

Imagine how destructive Irma would have been had it not made that last minute WNW turn, bringing the cat 5 eyewall into San Juan
1 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27556
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane MARIA report is up

#177 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:42 am

BadLarry95 wrote:Emily also posted. Winds upped to 60mph. Rather impressive given she made landfall a few hours after forming


The report moves the genesis of Emily up 18 hours - actually formed on the afternoon before.
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1478
Age: 24
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: 2017 TCRs: Tropical Storm EMILY / Hurricane MARIA / Hurricane NATE reports are up

#178 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:40 am

They kept Nate as a hurricane at landfall on the Gulf Coast. They probably suspect that hurricane force winds were at a remote part of a bayou with no recordings.
0 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18813
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane MARIA report is up / TS EMILY is also up

#179 Postby wxman57 » Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:13 pm

cycloneye wrote:I can say that already this is in the news here and many don't believe it was a 4 at landfall. Maybe,they will do the upgrade in the next few years.


I don't know how one would be able to differentiate the damage from a 135kt cat 4 from a 140kt cat 5. Fortunately, Maria was weakening as it reached PR - not enough, though.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6960
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane MARIA report is up / TS EMILY is also up

#180 Postby Alyono » Mon Apr 09, 2018 2:10 pm

cycloneye wrote:IMO,regardless it was a cat 4 or cat 5, Puerto Rico was devastated and almost 7 months after it struck,we are still in the rebuilding phase with many thousands still without power and many homes still with damaged roofs with the blue tarps.


I'm actually surprised it was not dropped to 125 kts at landfall. The final aircraft did not find any evidence of a cat 5 hurricane. The hurricane appeared to weaken a little more after the final recon flight. No radar or surface observations justified close to cat 5
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, CyclonicFury, HurricaneFan, HurricaneMaster_PR, Macrocane, pepecool20, Siker, South Texas Storms and 56 guests