2017 TCRs

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cycloneye
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Re: 2017 TCRs: Tropical Storm EMILY / Hurricane MARIA / Hurricane NATE reports are up

#181 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 09, 2018 2:23 pm

After the Maria report,this is how the top 5 strongest U.S landfalling Hurricanes stand,Two of them strucked PR.

1.Labor Day Storm 1935 (FL): 160 kt
2. CAMILLE 1969 (MS): 150 kt
3. ANDREW 1992 (FL): 145 kt
4. San Felipe 1928 (PR): 140 kt
5. MARIA 2017 (PR): 135 kt
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Re: 2017 TCRs: Tropical Storm EMILY / Hurricane MARIA / Hurricane NATE reports are up

#182 Postby Alyono » Mon Apr 09, 2018 2:45 pm

cycloneye wrote:After the Maria report,this is how the top 5 strongest U.S landfalling Hurricanes stand,Two of them strucked PR.

1.Labor Day Storm 1935 (FL): 160 kt
2. CAMILLE 1969 (MS): 150 kt
3. ANDREW 1992 (FL): 145 kt
4. San Felipe 1928 (PR): 140 kt
5. MARIA 2017 (PR): 135 kt


Irma USVI 155 kts
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Re: 2017 TCRs: Tropical Storm EMILY / Hurricane MARIA / Hurricane NATE reports are up

#183 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:47 pm

Alyono wrote:
cycloneye wrote:After the Maria report,this is how the top 5 strongest U.S landfalling Hurricanes stand,Two of them strucked PR.

1.Labor Day Storm 1935 (FL): 160 kt
2. CAMILLE 1969 (MS): 150 kt
3. ANDREW 1992 (FL): 145 kt
4. San Felipe 1928 (PR): 140 kt
5. MARIA 2017 (PR): 135 kt


Irma USVI 155 kts


Irma did not make landfall in the USVI though (but it was a direct hit at category 4-5 intensity on the left eyewall in St. Thomas).
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Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane MARIA report is up / TS EMILY is also up

#184 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:49 pm

wxman57 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:I can say that already this is in the news here and many don't believe it was a 4 at landfall. Maybe,they will do the upgrade in the next few years.


I don't know how one would be able to differentiate the damage from a 135kt cat 4 from a 140kt cat 5. Fortunately, Maria was weakening as it reached PR - not enough, though.


Had Maria hit while still charging up with 155-160 kt winds, the wind radius would have been a lot less and damage might have not been quite as great overall (but more catastrophic near the landfall point). The RMW jumped from 10 to 30+ miles, exposing much of the island to major hurricane-force winds. The area experiencing cat 3-4 conditions was six times larger than before the ERC.
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Re: 2017 TCRs: Tropical Storm EMILY / Hurricane MARIA / Hurricane NATE reports are up

#185 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:58 pm

galaxy401 wrote:They kept Nate as a hurricane at landfall on the Gulf Coast. They probably suspect that hurricane force winds were at a remote part of a bayou with no recordings.


I know that the landfall intensity for Nate was challenging. There was a 72 kt SFMR reading at about 0200Z, about three hours before landfall (that supports 75 kt for when it hit Southwest Pass) and a 68 kt dropsonde reading around 0400Z (plus SFMR readings around there which were likely invalid due to shoaling). However, the highest surface winds were around 50-55 kt on land adjusting for height. The aircraft data clearly suggests it was still a hurricane (the radar presentation did not change significantly in that time), but the land observations do not. 65 kt seems the best estimate based on a blend of the data plus the likelihood of sampling issues, although 60 kt would definitely have been acceptable as well.

No mention at all was made of the 83 kt SFMR reading so it must have been discarded (the 104 kt dropsonde was definitely on crack).
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#186 Postby wxman57 » Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:30 pm

I'd believe actual surface observations (via instruments mounted at 10m) over SFMR "guesstimates". SFMR is a good tool to have to identify a low-level circulation, but I just don't trust that it can accurately measure 1-minute sustained wind at 10m. I think Nate made landfall as a tropical storm. To say that Nate made landfall as a hurricane is not representative of what coastal stations observed.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#187 Postby Alyono » Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:14 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'd believe actual surface observations (via instruments mounted at 10m) over SFMR "guesstimates". SFMR is a good tool to have to identify a low-level circulation, but I just don't trust that it can accurately measure 1-minute sustained wind at 10m. I think Nate made landfall as a tropical storm. To say that Nate made landfall as a hurricane is not representative of what coastal stations observed.


SFMR is used more to determine wind speed, not the presence of a circulation. They are using flight level winds to determine a circulation
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#188 Postby NotSparta » Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:51 pm

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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

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Re: 2017 TCRs

#189 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:18 pm



Ophelia was a fascinating storm in an area where you don't expect it. The intensity is very uncertain, since there isn't much knowledge of major hurricanes over cooler water and how boundary layers respond. That's where Recon would be nice.

Satellite supported a higher intensity (about 110 kt) but there were concerns over the boundary layer. But at the same time, it was quite strong convectively.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#190 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:00 am

Putting 2017 into perspective:
 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/986255684466561026



*Rain of Harvey's magnitude in Texas was a ~1.4% annual probability event in 1990 and is projected to increase to 14% by 2090. A linear increase in frequency yields a 6% annual probability in 2017.
*Irma's peak winds ... within 300 km of Barbuda are estimated to have had an annual probability of 0.13% in 1990, increasing to 1.3% in 2090.
*The frequency of storms of Maria's intensity in the northeast Caribbean may increase ~ tenfold by the end of the century.

 https://twitter.com/primowx/status/986266927969554433



 https://twitter.com/primowx/status/986297506907684868



*7th busiest season on record using Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
*Five Category 5 landfalls in Caribbean...four by Irma (Barbuda, St. Martin/Maarten, Virgin Gorda, Cuba) and one by Maria (Dominica)

*Three Category 4 U.S. landfalls in 26 days: Harvey, Irma and Maria
  1. Only three in previous 56 years: Hugo '89, Andrew '92 and Charley '04
*Maria: Strengthened 75 mph in 18 hours. Once a decade event.
  1. Strengthened 115 mph in 48 hours. Once every dozen years.
  2. Strongest landfall in Puerto Rico in 90 years.
*Costliest year on record for the USA: Around $265 billion
*New U.S. tropical cyclone rainfall record of 60.58 inches near Nederland, TX
*Likely first concurrent warnings for three hurricanes (Irma, Jose, Katia)


The active September surprised many people, given the weak MJO signal. The season shut down earlier than expected for a hyperactive year, as the MJO entered a strongly hostile phase.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#191 Postby NotoSans » Wed Sep 26, 2018 11:56 am

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products ... 17atcr.pdf
The long-awaited ATCR from JTWC has finally been released.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#192 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:28 pm

It's worth mentioning that in the newly released Hurricane Michael report, the NHC stated that they are still analyzing the SMFR wind's reliability which includes pasts storms like Irma, Jose, and Maria.

With that in consideration I guess there is still an outside chance that Jose may still get upgraded to a category 5. Or possibly Irma's intensity could be back up to 160 kts or not.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#193 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:38 pm

galaxy401 wrote:It's worth mentioning that in the newly released Hurricane Michael report, the NHC stated that they are still analyzing the SMFR wind's reliability which includes pasts storms like Irma, Jose, and Maria.

With that in consideration I guess there is still an outside chance that Jose may still get upgraded to a category 5. Or possibly Irma's intensity could be back up to 160 kts or not.


Yes,one last look at Maria to make sure.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#194 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:07 pm

galaxy401 wrote:It's worth mentioning that in the newly released Hurricane Michael report, the NHC stated that they are still analyzing the SMFR wind's reliability which includes pasts storms like Irma, Jose, and Maria.

With that in consideration I guess there is still an outside chance that Jose may still get upgraded to a category 5. Or possibly Irma's intensity could be back up to 160 kts or not.


If the SFMR was taken at face value, Irma would indeed have an intensity of 160 or 165 kt, while Jose would be 140 or 145 kt and Maria would be 155 kt. If they find the high bias is not really so and that the flight level winds are indeed underestimates in intensifying severe hurricanes, it would affect other storms too in the past.
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