2017 TCRs

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Shell Mound
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#21 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:03 pm

Does anyone know why Emily was classified as a tropical cyclone? It was co-located with a mid-level trough, and there was a surface temperature/dew gradient.

I'm not critiquing the National Hurricane Center's decision, but I'm just curious about the rationale in this case.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#22 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:03 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:I'll give my opinion of Irma in Florida and Maria.
Maria landfall in Puerto rico probably 130 knots. It "tighten" up as it was making landfall and the eyewalls connected which suggest that all weakening had stopped.

Irma was probably 115 knots at keys landfall and 100 knots at Marco island...This is supported at Marco island by the 111 mph sustain wind on that island.


I agree with 130 kt for Maria at landfall, although a case could be made for the operational 135 or a bit lower at 125. The pressure was still filling up to landfall (my best guess right now based on storm chaser data and analysis is 921 mb, which is an increase from 917 mb at last Recon pass), but the radar presentation suggests that it was largely steady in the last 2-3 hours after the SFMR of 133 (IIRC) which supported the operational intensity. Assuming slight weakening after the last full Recon pass is the basis for the 130 kt intensity. BTW, I estimate Maria was 150 kt at Dominica landfall due to continued intensification up to landfall and SFMR supported 145 a couple hours before.

I would go a bit lower - 110 kt - at Keys landfall, as the highest SFMR I saw in that period was 108 (although shoaling might make it uncertain) and the only reading supporting cat 4 was nearly 6 hours earlier. As far as Marco Island, that same surface observation is the basis for my estimate of 105 kt assuming stronger winds were occurring in the Everglades.

As for Harvey, its landfall intensity will almost certainly be its peak intensity, as all observations suggest it was intensifying right up to landfall.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#23 Postby HurricaneBelle » Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:17 am

Shell Mound wrote:Does anyone know why Emily was classified as a tropical cyclone? It was co-located with a mid-level trough, and there was a surface temperature/dew gradient.

I'm not critiquing the National Hurricane Center's decision, but I'm just curious about the rationale in this case.


Emily broke off from the trough and dived ESE. It was a small feature, but technically a TC.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#24 Postby J_J99 » Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:27 am

Sciencerocks wrote:I'll give my opinion of Irma in Florida and Maria.
Maria landfall in Puerto rico probably 130 knots. It "tighten" up as it was making landfall and the eyewalls connected which suggest that all weakening had stopped.

Irma was probably 115 knots at keys landfall and 100 knots at Marco island...This is supported at Marco island by the 111 mph sustain wind on that island.

I would agree with the Keys, I dont think it was below a Category 4 at landfall. Marco Island I would have debate with, it defnitely was ALOT stronger than the advisory was showing. Maria was defnintely stablizing and slightly strenghtenign up to landfall as the inner eyewall had all but collapsed and the outer eyewall was taking over and looking quite nasty on radar.
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:I'll give my opinion of Irma in Florida and Maria.
Maria landfall in Puerto rico probably 130 knots. It "tighten" up as it was making landfall and the eyewalls connected which suggest that all weakening had stopped.

Irma was probably 115 knots at keys landfall and 100 knots at Marco island...This is supported at Marco island by the 111 mph sustain wind on that island.

I've heard despite structure degradation, a pro met said Irma could be upgraded to 115 kts at its Marco Island landfall

I would agree with the pro met, the 115 kts seems fair for the Marco Island landfall, the wind was defintely much higher than expected and the eyewall seemed to be strengthening up to landfall.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#25 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:38 pm

The report for Tropical Storm Jova is complete.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#26 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 22, 2017 12:54 pm

Adrian and Dora are now out.

Dora's peak intensity is highly uncertain - the human Dvorak estimates were 75-80 kt, while the ADT supported 105-110 kt. (They compromised with 90 kt - higher than operational but lower than you could make an argument for.)
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#27 Postby Blown Away » Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:24 pm

How long before Irma?
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#28 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Nov 23, 2017 4:12 pm

Blown Away wrote:How long before Irma?

Probably not until February/March or maybe even April
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#29 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Nov 24, 2017 12:56 pm

90 kt seems like a fine peak intensity for Dora. Most of the microwave estimates were more in line with subjective values. ADT was more or less on an island with its intensity estimates.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#30 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:21 pm

Blown Away wrote:How long before Irma?


I doubt any of the "big 3" will be out before February at the earliest. Maria might be the first of the big ones done since there is less data to work with from the islands.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#31 Postby NotoSans » Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:55 pm

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Re: 2017 TCRs

#32 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:40 pm

Hurricane KATIA is up. Peak was at 90kts.

Code: Select all

5 / 1200 22.2 97.2 1010 25 tropical depression
05 / 1800 22.4 97.0 1008 30 "
06 / 0000 22.4 96.7 1008 30 "
06 / 0600 22.2 96.4 1006 35 tropical storm
06 / 1200 22.0 95.8 1004 45 "
06 / 1800 21.8 95.2 992 65 hurricane
07 / 0000 21.7 94.9 989 70 "
07 / 0600 21.6 94.6 989 70 "
07 / 1200 21.6 94.6 982 70 "
07 / 1800 21.6 94.6 982 70 "
08 / 0000 21.5 95.0 982 75 "
08 / 0600 21.4 95.3 977 80 "
08 / 1200 21.1 95.7 973 85 "
08 / 1800 21.1 96.2 972 90 "
09 / 0000 20.8 96.9 988 70 "
09 / 0600 20.3 97.4 1001 35 tropical storm
09 / 1200 20.1 97.7 1004 30 tropical depression
09 / 1800 dissipated
09 / 0300 20.6 97.1 990 65 landfall at Tecolutla
08 / 1800 21.1 96.2 972 90


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132017_Katia.pdf
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#33 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:49 pm

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Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane KATIA,TD ELEVEN-E,TS SELMA are up

#34 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:57 pm

Still think 90 kt is probably generous for Katia’s peak intensity. It did peak between flights but it essentially collapsed prior to landfall. I’d say 85 kt would have been a better estimate even though it did have a distinct eye for a brief period.
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Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane KATIA,TD ELEVEN-E,TS SELMA are up

#35 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:44 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Still think 90 kt is probably generous for Katia’s peak intensity. It did peak between flights but it essentially collapsed prior to landfall. I’d say 85 kt would have been a better estimate even though it did have a distinct eye for a brief period.


I agree 90 kt is probably generous, since the difference in structure was not too significant and the next flight found a much weaker storm. I'd have probably had the peak of 85 kt as well (as supported by the SFMR reading), and that would have been at 1200Z. I'd have either left it alone or dropped it to 80 kt at 1800Z, as Katia ran well below Dvorak at 0000Z and the next flight - the landfall intensity of 65 kt appears very reasonable.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#36 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:14 pm

Tropical Storm Ramon report is up.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP192017_Ramon.pdf
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#37 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:37 pm

I think we might see a few more shorter ones come out before Christmas, maybe a couple more of the pre-Harvey storms, and perhaps Philippe or Rina. If I were to guess, the "big 3" will be staggered - about a month apart starting in late January.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#38 Postby J_J99 » Wed Dec 20, 2017 1:19 am

It took us a while to even see Matthews from last year, I think it was only around early April until it was finally released?
My guess would be this. All the TCRs will be released one by one starting with the storms that did not do too much and did not have complex paths and damage.

Harvey may be the first of the "Big Three" we see from the NHC due to its relatively shorter path and less complexity compared to Irma and Maria. Only thing that may set it back would be accounting for all of the horrific damage it did in Texas. IMHO it will be upgraded slightly to 120 - 125 kts max with most of its right front quadrant on land when the HHs surveyed it around landfall and possibly 936-935 MB?

Irma will probably be last IMHO due to the shear complexity of its path, just how many nations it affected and its pure destruction in the Carribean, Cuba and extreme damage in the Florida Keys and Florida. Maybe a higher peak intensity and Cat5 hours sooner? Then I think its Florida landfall in the Keys will be kept at same intensity(We never heard anything about that dropsonde that recorded 148 mph winds so maybe higher if that was ever vertified?) and possibly a higher intensity for its Marco Island landfall (110 kts 115 kts max) at 935 MB? Flooding in Jacksonville was just catastrophic and the storm was just absolutely gigantic.

Maria will probably be after Harvey and Jose (which I FULLY expect to be upgraded to a Cat 5 at its peak) but before Irma. It demolished the Southern part of Dominica, did horrific damage in Puerto Rico that caused a humanitarian crisis not experienced in the US since Katrina. Death toll I am hoping the NHC will provide us with an accurate assessment of the amount of deaths since local officals refuse to.

Those are my opinions about what will come from the TCRs and possibly when.
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#39 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 21, 2017 12:45 pm

Tropical Storm Lidia report is up.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP142017_Lidia.pdf
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Re: 2017 TCRs

#40 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jan 01, 2018 7:38 pm

Usually, a lot of TCRs come out in January, so we'll probably see several released over the next few weeks.
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