Wave WSW of Cabo Verde Islands (Is INVEST 97L)

[TheStormExpert]

preliminarily, the models are showing major troughing off of the East Coast. Nothing would get close with the pattern being depicted

How much time needs to pass before a pattern becomes the normal, the EC troughing has been a near permanent feature for 10+ years... When it comes to the EC landfall drought, I'm puzzled why this troughing isn't discussed more?

Yes the East Coast trough has been been present far more than not over the past 11 years or so but are we already forgetting Matthew last season which would have likely devastated a good chunk of the Florida East Coast if if had veered just a little bit more left rather than right?

I've been wondering since the last year or two weather or not that pattern could be changing some to more storms and hurricanes to threaten or even affect the East Coast or other U.S. coastlines like the Gulf.

Back on topic with this wave, I personally think it has little to no chance at developing. I'd give it about a 10-20% chance for now. Even with a strong kelvin wave forecasted to pass through the Atlantic next week nothing is able to develop.

[Nimbus]

preliminarily, the models are showing major troughing off of the East Coast. Nothing would get close with the pattern being depicted

How much time needs to pass before a pattern becomes the normal, the EC troughing has been a near permanent feature for 10+ years... When it comes to the EC landfall drought, I'm puzzled why this troughing isn't discussed more?

I nicknamed it the Creti TUTT a while back, I'm hoping its the same phenomena that causes the storm on Jupiter..

There could be some global warming science that would support a long term resonance over Bermuda like that. The Earths upper air patterns are driven by atmospheric heat energy so there could be some statistically significant effects from global warming.

[RL3AO]

preliminarily, the models are showing major troughing off of the East Coast. Nothing would get close with the pattern being depicted

How much time needs to pass before a pattern becomes the normal, the EC troughing has been a near permanent feature for 10+ years... When it comes to the EC landfall drought, I'm puzzled why this troughing isn't discussed more?

Do you have (or have you seen) any evidence to suggest that troughing on the East Coast has become more persistent or intense during the last decade? Until I see something, I'd wager everything is within the climatological norms and that things are pretty much the same as they've been in past decades.

[CFLHurricane]

preliminarily, the models are showing major troughing off of the East Coast. Nothing would get close with the pattern being depicted

How much time needs to pass before a pattern becomes the normal, the EC troughing has been a near permanent feature for 10+ years... When it comes to the EC landfall drought, I'm puzzled why this troughing isn't discussed more?

Do you have (or have you seen) any evidence to suggest that troughing on the East Coast has become more persistent or intense during the last decade? Until I see something, I'd wager everything is within the climatological norms and that things are pretty much the same as they've been in past decades.

Seriously. I thought we got over this trough talk with Matthew last year. Troughs are always coming off the east coast, it's how weather moving west to east works. I guess folk stories are hard to kick.

[NDG]

preliminarily, the models are showing major troughing off of the East Coast. Nothing would get close with the pattern being depicted

How much time needs to pass before a pattern becomes the normal, the EC troughing has been a near permanent feature for 10+ years... When it comes to the EC landfall drought, I'm puzzled why this troughing isn't discussed more?

Here we go again with this EC troughing permanent feature theory.
Last couple of years it has been non-existent during the heart of the hurricane season.



Yes, so far this hurricane season heights have not been as high across the immediate eastern US as last couple of years but the Atlantic ridge has been fairly strong, stronger than last year which could make it more dangerous for the southern US, IMO.

[WeatherEmperor]

Remains 0% / 20% at the 2pm update

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A few showers and thunderstorms southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a westward moving tropical wave. Development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$ Forecaster Avila


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Hammy]

Looks decent convectively, and still a good amount of low level westerlies. Doesn't look like it'll develop but it could help to moisten the atmosphere a bit for the waves behind it.

---

On the note of troughing: It's been persistent for decades, there's nothing unusual about it. 2004/05 were exceptions to the rule and were really the only two years recently where the EC was hammered. Go back even to 1999, with hurricanes aiming at Florida but turning north beforehand, or 1995 with most things recurving between Bermuda and the US. Outside those two anomalous years, only Donna (1960), Betsy (1965), Inez (1966), Kate (1985), Andrew (1992), Erin (1995), and Georges (1998) entered the GoM from the Atlantic instead of the Caribbean since 1950--only seven hurricanes in the remaining 65 years (and aside from Kate, they were in six-year clusters decades apart.)

[Blown Away]

preliminarily, the models are showing major troughing off of the East Coast. Nothing would get close with the pattern being depicted

How much time needs to pass before a pattern becomes the normal, the EC troughing has been a near permanent feature for 10+ years... When it comes to the EC landfall drought, I'm puzzled why this troughing isn't discussed more?

Do you have (or have you seen) any evidence to suggest that troughing on the East Coast has become more persistent or intense during the last decade? Until I see something, I'd wager everything is within the climatological norms and that things are pretty much the same as they've been in past decades.

ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE TRACKS FROM 2006-2016
Meteorology is not my profession, so the wording of my questions can/does lack technical expertise at times. I don't have hard sound science to back my observation and even the experts continue to be puzzled why there has been such a hurricane landfall drought. I guess I'm wrong in thinking the EC trough has played a significant role since 2006.

[Nimbus]

The current wave under consideration is fairly low latitude so would likely be a candidate for a track into the GOM. Early models are showing our persistent TUTT in a position to add this wave to the "statistical anomaly" that has been cited. We have upper air pattern data dating back to at least the 70's in a database somewhere so it could be analyzed in detail.

[NDG]

How much time needs to pass before a pattern becomes the normal, the EC troughing has been a near permanent feature for 10+ years... When it comes to the EC landfall drought, I'm puzzled why this troughing isn't discussed more?

Do you have (or have you seen) any evidence to suggest that troughing on the East Coast has become more persistent or intense during the last decade? Until I see something, I'd wager everything is within the climatological norms and that things are pretty much the same as they've been in past decades.

http://i64.tinypic.com/29kt543.jpg
ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE TRACKS FROM 2006-2016
Meteorology is not my profession, so the wording of my questions can/does lack technical expertise at times. I don't have hard sound science to back my observation and even the experts continue to be puzzled why there has been such a hurricane landfall drought. I guess I'm wrong in thinking the EC trough has played a significant role since 2006.

The only 2 years during the past 10 years that we can really say that the eastern US & gulf coast escaped from being directly hit by a Major Hurricane because of a eastern US trough pattern were 2010 & 2011, when the Bermuda ridge was basically non existent during those two years across the western Atlantic basin.

[Nimbus]

The wave train rolling off Africa increases latitude reaching the Cape Verde islands about August(usually), its a cycle that might have anomalies due to global warming. The Saharan air layer also goes through major cycles where some new statistical anomaly might be detected. Where else should we be looking if we want to use our computer advances to improve modeling accuracy? Trying to detect patterns in something that is close to statistically random is just a waste of computer resources.

Our current low latitude wave has a 20% chance of developing according to the NHC.

[wxman57]

The wave train rolling off Africa increases latitude reaching the Cape Verde islands about August(usually), its a cycle that might have anomalies due to global warming. The Saharan air layer also goes through major cycles where some new statistical anomaly might be detected. Where else should we be looking if we want to use our computer advances to improve modeling accuracy? Trying to detect patterns in something that is close to statistically random is just a waste of computer resources.

Our current low latitude wave has a 20% chance of developing according to the NHC.

20% seems high, given the wave has no model support for development. GFS weakly develops the wave currently over Africa, which emerges into the Atlantic over the weekend.

[RL3AO]

20% seems high, given the wave has no model support for development. GFS weakly develops the wave currently over Africa, which emerges into the Atlantic over the weekend.

I believe GFS/GEFS also has a well-documented bias where it moves the favorable upper-level conditions from the MJO over South America/Phase 8 too quickly and keeps it there too long.

The Kelvin wave signal looks impressive, but I still think the tropical Atlantic is 7 to 14 days from waking up.

[gatorcane]

The UKMET is more bullish as of 12Z:

[gatorcane]

Latest image. There is still some model support here with the both the UKMET and CMC showing development and even the JMA shows a good vorticity tracking west across the MDR. The UKMET being on board is the most interesting as it is arguably one of the best models we have for forecasting genesis. I wouldn't turn my back on this area at this point especially as we are inching closer to August.

[Kingarabian]

Latest image. There is still some model support here with the both the UKMET and CMC showing development and even the JMA shows a good vorticity tracking west across the MDR. The UKMET being on board is the most interesting as it is arguably one of the best models we have for forecasting genesis. I wouldn't turn my back on this area at this point especially as we are inching closer to August.

[img]https://s21.postimg.org/yic6f32uf/tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1.gif[img]

Thinking we could see another short lived TS that needs recon for classification.

[Siker]

Interestingly, most of the EPS members that do develop this (~8) keep this weak until north of the Caribbean, at which point strengthening begins.

[Kingarabian]

Interestingly, most of the EPS members that do develop this (~8) keep this weak until north of the Caribbean, at which point strengthening begins.

Yeah they deepen it off the east coast. Don't know how tropical it is at that point.

[Siker]

Interestingly, most of the EPS members that do develop this (~8) keep this weak until north of the Caribbean, at which point strengthening begins.

Yeah they deepen it off the east coast. Don't know how tropical it is at that point.

Don't know what you mean; maybe a few become baroclinically enhanced as they begin to curve northeastward but there are several that are clearly tropical in the vicinity of the Bahamas.

[Kingarabian]

Interestingly, most of the EPS members that do develop this (~8) keep this weak until north of the Caribbean, at which point strengthening begins.

Yeah they deepen it off the east coast. Don't know how tropical it is at that point.

Don't know what you mean; maybe a few become baroclinically enhanced as they begin to curve northeastward but there are several that are clearly tropical in the vicinity of the Bahamas.

Some are keeping it tropical near the Bahamas as you said, some delay development until it's off the east coast where they do something with it.