Wave WSW of Cabo Verde Islands (Is INVEST 97L)

[cycloneye]

8 PM: 0%-30%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible over the
next several days while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[TheStormExpert]

18z GEFS Ensembles getting somewhat more bullish once again 10 days out FWIW.

[floridasun78]

18z GEFS Ensembles getting somewhat more bullish once again 10 days out FWIW.

https://preview.ibb.co/hVU7Ek/IMG_7775.png

we see if gfs is taking us ride or telling us ture but need see other models show us gfs not showing ghost storm

[gatorcane]

Convection on the increase, saved image:

[Hurricaneman]

Convection on the increase, saved image:

https://s11.postimg.org/c0pl84mdf/tropi ... ater_1.gif

Seems to have a good low level structure to start with but will it continue to organize like the models say, looks as though it's moving quite slowly at the moment because of a weaker high pressure

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS has this becoming a tropical depression in th MDR and doesn't do much with it until the western Caribbean in 300hrs and becomes a formidable tropical storm making landfall in central Mexico in 348hrs while I don't really believe that because it's so far in the long range anything beyond 7 days is a crapshoot

[floridasun78]

Convection on the increase, saved image:

https://s11.postimg.org/c0pl84mdf/tropi ... ater_1.gif

Seems to have a good low level structure to start with but will it continue to organize like the models say, looks as though it's moving quite slowly at the moment because of a weaker high pressure

area nhc looking area more by 25 not 30 to 35 if look nhc site that looking don't have much storms were x at your showing area to west look better

[Alyono]

gfs dropping this like a hot potato. CMC dramatically backing off. UKMET keeps as a TD

Think the Kelvin wave influence is being overstated, as it usually is. Takes more than a favorable Kelvin Wave to get TC genesis

[Kingarabian]

gfs dropping this like a hot potato. CMC dramatically backing off. UKMET keeps as a TD

Think the Kelvin wave influence is being overstated, as it usually is. Takes more than a favorable Kelvin Wave to get TC genesis

Right? "Suppressed Kelvin entering the region, no TC developmemt likely" Yet the EPac spawns 3 storms.

[floridasun78]

gfs dropping this like a hot potato. CMC dramatically backing off. UKMET keeps as a TD

Think the Kelvin wave influence is being overstated, as it usually is. Takes more than a favorable Kelvin Wave to get TC genesis

so other circle will go away soon i hope people don't think this how rest hurr season going to be

[TheStormExpert]

So what will it take to jumpstart this season and get things going?

[AutoPenalti]

GFS thinking the Kelvin wave is full of baloney.

[floridasun78]

So what will it take to jumpstart this season and get things going?

for shear drop eastern Caribbean and this sal to lessen that should happen soon as go into aug

[Alyono]

So what will it take to jumpstart this season and get things going?

the large scale forcing to become more favorable. We need to be patient. 2010 seemed like it was going to be a bust in terms of an active season through late August. It ended up hyperactive

This wave won't have the same large scale forcing that those a month from now will have

[Kingarabian]

So what will it take to jumpstart this season and get things going?

There's no switch you can flip on August 15th and start spawning storms. Simply, at the end of August through October, tropical disturbances will have a better chance for development according to climatology.

[AubreyStorm]

2am
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible over the
next several days while the system moves westward or west-
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[AtlanticWind]

Euro has stronger system, wasn't sure if it is this one or one behind it.

[gatorcane]

How the 00Z ECMWF ends at 240 hours. System heading WNW east of Lesser Antilles:

[Alyono]

new GFS has absolutely nothing other than an el niño shear pattern for the Atlantic

of course, it has shown it has zero clue of the large scale circulation since the "upgrade". I'm inclined to trust the NAVGEM more than the "improved" GFS

[wxman57]

GFS is not developing the wave currently at 30W, it appears to be developing the wave that's now over Africa. It won't take 10+ days for the wave currently near 30W to reach the eastern Caribbean. It has been moving at 5 deg per day, putting it in the eastern Caribbean next Tuesday afternoon. You can trace the developed low back to its origin in Africa if you run the GFS loop backwards.