Caribbean Tropical Wave along 65W (Potential BOC System) (Is INVEST 90L)

[gatorcane]

UKMET continues to trend stronger:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.8N 33.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.07.2017 48 13.0N 34.9W 1011 28
0000UTC 01.08.2017 60 13.1N 38.8W 1011 30
1200UTC 01.08.2017 72 12.5N 42.5W 1009 28
0000UTC 02.08.2017 84 12.7N 45.4W 1009 28
1200UTC 02.08.2017 96 13.1N 48.4W 1009 30
0000UTC 03.08.2017 108 14.1N 51.4W 1008 29
1200UTC 03.08.2017 120 15.7N 54.1W 1008 39
0000UTC 04.08.2017 132 16.8N 56.3W 1004 46
1200UTC 04.08.2017 144 18.0N 57.7W 997 54

Wow yes it is. Good sign for development.

[AutoPenalti]

Interesting, had my doubts about this one but maybe this wave can put up or shut up

[Alyono]

GFS has it trying to spin up, and then immediately kills it off. Basically says "nothing to see, move along"

[Weather150]

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic is moving westward at 10
to 15 mph. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for some development of this system early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[wxman57]

That wave is at 42-43W now. I don't see anything between 30-35W. Check out the TPW loop, you can see it clearly moving west of 40W. The loop starts 3 days ago when it was near 24W. Development chances near zero. The models have been liking the much larger wave that you can see moving offshore at the end of the TPW loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

[WeatherEmperor]

The 12z Euro is at it again. Shows almost nothing on 12z after showing development on the 0z. What is it like 3 days in a row with this now??


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Weather150]

The 12z Euro is at it again. Shows almost nothing on 12z after showing development on the 0z. What is it like 3 days in a row with this now??


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Seems to be a trend.

[AtlanticWind]

That wave is at 42-43W now. I don't see anything between 30-35W. Check out the TPW loop, you can see it clearly moving west of 40W. The loop starts 3 days ago when it was near 24W. Development chances near zero. The models have been liking the much larger wave that you can see moving offshore at the end of the TPW loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

I see a wave that moved off yesterday morning at about 30 west
Also I see on this sat loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/h5-loop-rgb.html

[Alyono]

likely nothing to see here. Focus on the Gulf

[gatorcane]

Saved image:

[abajan]

5-Day Formation Chance Increased to 30%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this broad
disturbance is possible over the next several days while the system
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[gatorcane]

Anybody know why dev chances were increased here with less model support from last night's runs?

[Alyono]

Anybody know why dev chances were increased here with less model support from last night's runs?

different forecaster is my guess

[tropicwatch]

You can barely catch it but the 850mb vorticity with this system looks to be impressive.

[RL3AO]

Anybody know why dev chances were increased here with less model support from last night's runs?

I'm guessing it's a combination of climatology, the okay environment, the models maybe being a bit more conservative, and likely accounting somewhat for the CCKW passage. A 30% chance of a tropical wave developing within 5 days isn't too crazy. It's a much more common occurrence in early August compared to mid-July.

[Alyono]

dropped entirely by the UKMET

[floridasun78]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of cloudiness
and disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this
broad disturbance is possible over the next several days while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[AtlanticWind]

dropped entirely by the UKMET

The fact that the models can change so quickly
on development in even a relatively short time frame
show how it is not wise to put a lot of stock in their
genesis forecasts for example in the 7 to 10 day periods.

Things can change quickly in the tropics this time of year.

[abajan]

Back down to 20%:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017

A tropical wave located roughly midway between west Africa and the
Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of cloudiness
and disorganized shower activity. Any development of this system
is expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[Hammy]

Not sure why this is still getting mentioned in the outlooks--the wave behind it probably has a better shot at development.